Last Updated Oct 17, 2022, 7:54 PM
NFL Week 6 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFL Week 6 odds give us the game we've all been waiting for: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs. It's a rematch of last season's spectacular AFC Divisional Round playoff game.
About the only downside: The rematch is a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff, rather than a prime-time clash.
In other key matchups, the Dallas Cowboys face the Philadelphia Eagles, and the upstart New York Giants host the Baltimore Ravens.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on NFL Week Six odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: Chargers -6.5; Over/Under 47.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET MONDAY: Thirty minutes pre-kick, WynnBet has the Chargers down to just a 3.5-point favorite. That's after opening Los Angeles -6.5 on Oct. 9, falling off to -5 by last Monday night, then going to -4.5 and -4 this evening.
L.A. is seeing 62% of spread tickets, but 62% of spread cash is on Denver.
"We took a majority of our bets at +4.5," WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said. "We have pretty good liability on the Broncos at +4.5. We will need the Chargers to win by a bunch."
The total opened at 46.5 and spent most of the week at 45.5. The Under is getting 65% of tickets/58% of money.
UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: With just a few hours until kickoff, DraftKings has the Chargers at -4, dropping them from -4.5 early this morning. It's an indication that the Broncos continue to get attention for the Monday night game, which is interesting, considering how awful Denver has looked.
Los Angeles opened -6.5 back on Oct. 9 and was down to -5 by last Monday afternoon. The line fell to -4.5 Thursday and went through a few price iterations at that number until today's dip to -4.
Contrary to the move, point-spread tickets are still running 3/1-plus and spread money 2/1 on the Chargers.
The total has been pretty much nailed to 45.5 for the past seven days, save for about 30 minutes at 46 early this afternoon. DK opened the total at 46.5 on Oct. 9 and dipped to 45.5 last Monday morning.
The Under is netting 71% of tickets/73% of money.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars' NFL Week 6 odds market opened the Chargers -5.5 and went to -6.5 in a matter of minutes Sunday night. By Monday afternoon, the line returned to the opener, then Wednesday evening went to -5 on the way to -4.5.
Los Angeles is netting 71% of early spread bets at Caesars, but Denver – despite looking dreadful – is somehow landing 89% of early spread dollars. However, that dollar disparity is skewed by the Broncos having taken multiple bets of $55,000 or more.
The total opened at 46.5, bottomed out at 45 Monday and has been a stable 45.5 since Tuesday morning. Betting splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Los Angeles opened as 6.5-point home chalk at PointsBet USA and by Monday afternoon was already down to -5. The Chargers bottomed out at -4.5 early today and are now -5.
L.A. is seeing 76% of early spread tickets, but just 58% of early spread dollars.
The total opened at 46, fell to 45 by Tuesday morning and is now 45.5. The Under is netting 73% of tickets, while 71% of money is on the Over.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: What have NFL bettors/viewers done to deserve getting the completely underwhelming Broncos in yet another prime-time game? Clearly, the NFL thought a Russell Wilson-led Denver team would be far better than it actually is.
In a Week 5 Thursday night snoozer, the Broncos (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) lost to Indianapolis 12-9 in overtime as 3-point home favorites. There were no touchdowns scored, a result satisfying only to those who bet the Under and/or who were savvy enough to take the No Touchdown prop.
Los Angeles (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) generally hasn't had the scoring issues that have plagued Denver. In Week 5, the Chargers outlasted Cleveland 30-28, narrowly covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
The Broncos and Chargers split their two meetings last season, with the home team going 2-0 SU and ATS.
"We opened the Chargers -6.5 and are seeing money both ways," SuperBook executive director Murray said. "Brandon Staley was very lucky to escape with a win today. He will be matching wits with Nathaniel Hackett next weekend. If nothing else, it should make for interesting TV."
Indeed. Staley made some interesting coaching decisions late in the win at Cleveland. And Hackett, in his first year as a head coach, has been dreadful in Denver thus far.
The spread hasn't moved tonight, but the total is already down 1.5 points to 46, with early bettors perhaps expecting the Broncos to ugly it up again.
Opening line: Eagles -5.5; Over/Under 43.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Fifty minutes before kickoff, Philly is laying 6.5 points at WynnBet. Last Sunday night, the Eagles opened at -5.5, and the initial move Monday morning was down to -5. On Wednesday morning, Philadelphia jumped up to -6, then went to -6.5 Thursday afternoon and back to -6 Thursday night.
The Eagles have been stable at -6.5 since early Friday, and they're currently -6.5 (-115). Point-spread ticket count is just beyond 2/1 Cowboys, while spread money is running just shy of 2/1 Eagles.
The total opened at 43.5, backed up to 42 by Monday afternoon and stuck there all week. In the past 90 minutes, the total finally inched up to 42.5. Ticket count is 2/1-plus on the Over, but money is running almost dead even, with a slight lean to the Under.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Caesars Sports pegged Philadelphia -5.5 at Sunday night's outset, dipped to -5 Monday morning, then climbed to -6 Wednesday morning. This afternoon, the Eagles made another move up to -6.5.
And again, Cooper Rush is expected to start at QB, while Dak Prescott continues recovering from a thumb injury.
“I’m a little surprised the line is this high,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “There were questions about whether Prescott would come back, and that doesn’t look like that’s the case, and the line may be reflective of that. To me, it seems like a lot of value on Dallas, [6.5] seems like a definite take. Rush isn’t putting up big statistical numbers, but he isn’t making mistakes.
"This is definitely a mouthwatering matchup come Sunday night, especially now that they’re both off to great starts.”
The total opened at 43.5 and has been fairly stable at 42 since Monday afternoon. Betting splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Philly hit PointsBet USA's NFL Week 6 odds board as a 5.5-point favorite and bounced down to -5 a few times, then went to -4.5 Tuesday. This morning brought a rebound to Eagles -5 and -6, on the way to -6.5 late this afternoon.
That latest line surge toward Philadelphia was in part due to news that Cooper Rush is again likely to start for Dallas this week. Dak Prescott is continuing to recover from a Week 1 thumb injury.
Still, 64% of early spread bets/57% of early spread dollars are on the Cowboys for the Sunday night game.
The total opened at 43.5 and has spent most of the week at 42.5 or 42. It's currently 42, with ticket count almost even and money 5/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Dallas lost its regular-season opener to Tampa Bay, and with it lost QB Dak Prescott to a thumb injury. Since then, all the Cowboys (4-1 SU and ATS) have done is go 4-0 SU and ATS.
In Week 5, Cooper Rush and the Pokes went to Los Angeles as 5-point underdogs to the Rams. A DeMarcus Lawrence scoop-and-score and a blocked punt help Dallas take a 9-0 lead early, and the Cowboys went on to a 22-10 upset.
Philadelphia (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) held off Arizona 20-17 to remain the NFL's lone unbeaten team. But the Eagles failed to cash as 5.5-point faves, ending a three-game spread-covering run.
Philly likely has some revenge on its mind. In last season's two meetings between these NFC East rivals, Dallas won by a combined 92-47. That included a 51-26 boatracing in the regular-season finale, on the Eagles' home field.
"We opened the Eagles -5.5 and are holding there for now, despite several bets in Nevada on the Cowboys. We took a sharp bet in Colorado on Philly, and we think it’s the right line," John Murray said of The SuperBook's number in the NFL Week 6 odds market. "This is a much better game than anyone would’ve expected coming into the season. Both teams were hugely popular at the window today, and this should be a great-volume game."
The total is also stable tonight, at 43.5.
Opening line: Bills -2.5; Over/Under 54
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: About an hour before kickoff, Buffalo is laying 2.5 points at WynnBet. The Bills opened -2 last Sunday, went to -2.5 Monday night, then got to -3 Tuesday morning.
Buffalo has been stable at -2.5 since Wednesday, albeit at various juice. The Bills are seeing 56% of spread bets and 72% of spread money.
WynnBet opened the total at 54, spent Monday at 53.5, returned to 54 from Tuesday-Thursday, and got to 54.5 Thursday night. The total dipped to 54 Saturday morning, then got back to 54.5 this morning. Ticket count is 4/1 and money 2.5/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Buffalo opened as a 1-point road favorite at Caesars Sports on Sunday evening. By Monday night, the Bills were up to -2.5, and on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Bills touched various iterations of -3.
Late Wednesday afternoon, Buffalo dipped to -2.5 (-115), and the line has been -2.5 flat since Wednesday night. The Bills are getting a modest majority 53% of spread bets, while 62% of spread money is on the short 'dog Chiefs. The largest play thus far at Caesars: a $57,500 bet at Chiefs +3 (-115).
"I would think this will be one of the biggest handles this regular season, even though it isn’t a standalone prime-time game,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. "I’m expecting strong two-way action for Bills-Chiefs up until kickoff, with the spread this close. But there will be people that have doubts about the Chiefs after barely beating the Raiders, and they think there’s added emphasis for the Bills because of what happened in the playoffs last year.
Those two angles go against the Chiefs there, but they still have plenty of respect. A lot of people see them as a home 'dog, and even though it’s against the Bills, they’ll attract money, because it’s not a normal situation for them.”
The total opened at 53.5 in the wake of K.C.'s 30-29 Monday night home win over the Raiders. Since then, the number has nudged to 54 multiple times, and this afternoon briefly dipped to 53. It's now at 54. Betting splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: In arguably the most anticipated game this season, PointsBet USA opened Buffalo as a 2-point road chalk. The Bills quickly advanced to -2.5, then Tuesday briefly touched -3 (-105).
The line has since toggled between Buffalo -3 and -2.5, where it sits now. Point-spread ticket count is running almost dead even, but spread money is 2/1 on the home pup Chiefs. Kansas City (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) survived Monday Night Football against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders, winning 30-29 but failing to cash as touchdown favorites.
The total opened at 53.5 and has been stable at 54 since Tuesday morning. Early tickets and money are running 9/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SUNDAY: When these two teams met last January, bettors and viewers got arguably one of the greatest postseason games in NFL history. Buffalo and K.C. tied at 36 in regulation, and the Chiefs took the opening kick of overtime right down the field to win 42-36 as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Buffalo (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) got into a proper groove for this Week 6 showdown by posting a Week 5 blowout. The Bills took a 31-0 halftime lead against Pittsburgh and coasted to a 38-7 victory laying 14 points at home.
Meanwhile, Kansas City still has Week 5 work to do, hosting the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night. The Chiefs (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) rolled by Tampa Bay 41-31 as 2-point road underdogs in Week 4.
"We opened the Bills -2.5 after having the game a pick ’em on [last week's] look-ahead line," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. "The Bills looked awesome today, but we don’t want to get too carried away. That was at home and against the Steelers. This is a much different test. This game could very well decide the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
"We took a few Chiefs bets at +2.5, but so far nothing that has prompted us to move the line. The public will be on the Over pretty heavy. This is the best game of the NFL regular season, and we expect big volume on this game and the Sunday night game."
A little later this evening, The SuperBook lowered the Bills to -2 in the NFL Week 6 odds market. The total is stable at 54.
And speaking of that Sunday night matchup ...
Opening line: Ravens -5.5; Over/Under 43.5
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Three hours before kickoff, Baltimore is laying 5.5 points in WynnBet's NFL Week 6 odds market. That matches the opening line, and the Ravens peaked briefly at -6 and bottomed out at -4.5, hitting both those numbers on Monday.
The line stabilized at -5 early in the week and has been at -5.5 since Wednesday afternoon. Ticket count is dead even, but 78% of spread cash is on Baltimore.
WynnBet's total rose from 43.5 to 45 by Tuesday morning, then went to 45.5 and 46 Saturday. The Over is seeing 57% of tickets/69% of money.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: In the wake of a Sunday night home win over Cincinnati, Baltimore opened as a 5.5-point chalk at Caesars Sports. The Ravens spent the early part of the week at -5, then went to -6 Wednesday afternoon, before returning to -5.5 early today.
Point-spread ticket count is almost even, with a slight nod to the Giants. However, 81% of early spread dollars are on the Ravens.
"When you’re getting 5.5 points at home, that’s a lot,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Home 'dogs have also been pretty good this year. I would think more money will show up on the Giants. To me, the Giants have that certain something — I like the coach [Brian Daboll], and they seem to be a different team this year. If [Daniel] Jones doesn’t make mistakes, I can definitely see the Giants hanging in this one. They’re 4-1 for a reason, and I don’t think they’re in a letdown position with the team running on all cylinders.”
The total opened at 43.5, made its way to 45 by Tuesday morning and hasn't moved since. Betting splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: PointsBet USA installed Baltimore as a 5-point favorite at the outset, and the Ravens made a couple of trips to -5.5. Late this afternoon, Baltimore moved to -6, where the number sits now.
Baltimore is garnering 61% of early spread tickets/73% of early spread dollars.
The total opened at 44, peaked at 45 Tuesday and went to 44.5 this afternoon. The Over is nabbing 71% of tickets/70% of money so far.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SUNDAY: New York (4-1 SU and ATS) notched one of the bigger upsets of the season in Week 5. Playing in London as 9.5-point pups, the Giants came up with two fourth-quarter touchdowns to knock off the Packers 27-22.
Baltimore (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) bounced back – barely – from its blown Week 4 upset bid of Buffalo. Hosting Cincinnati in the Week 5 Sunday nighter, Baltimore got a final-seconds field goal to post a 19-17 win. But the Ravens couldn't cover the 3-point spread.
"We opened the Ravens at -5.5, and the game is now off the board," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. "This game could be a dose of reality for the Giants. They keep winning. I’ll give them credit for that. But it’s hard to believe they are as good as that 4-1 record. Baltimore will need to win a game like this to keep pace in a tough division. The Ravens have played a very difficult schedule."
As Murray noted, Ravens-Giants came off the board once the Bengals-Ravens Week 5 Sunday night game kicked off. There was no early movement in the line or total. Ravens-Giants will go back up Monday morning.
Opening line: Vikings -3; Over/Under 45.5
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
10 A.M. ET SUNDAY: The Vikings are 3-point faves at WynnBet, three hours ahead of kickoff. Minnesota opened -3 flat and spent the first half of the week at various price iterations of -3. Late Wednesday morning, the Vikes went to -3.5, and they've been at various prices of -3 since Thursday morning.
Point-spread ticket count is just shy of 2/1 and money approaching 2.5/1 on Minnesota.
The total opened at 45.5 and spent much of the week there, save for a couple stints at 46. On Friday, it went down to 45, where it sits now. The Under is taking 61% of bets and a healthy 86% of money.
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Minnesota hit Caesars' NFL Week 6 odds board at -3 (-105) Sunday night and spent time at various prices at -3 early in the week. On Wednesday morning, the Vikes nudged to -3.5, then this morning returned to -3 flat.
Early point-spread ticket count is almost 2/1 Vikings, but early spread money is 2.5/1 Dolphins.
The total opened at 46.5, spent the early part of the week at 45.5, then returned to 46.5 Wednesday. The number has been a steady 45.5 since lunch hour Wednesday. Betting splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Miami actually opened as a 1-point favorite Sunday night in PointsBet USA's NFL Week 6 odds market. But that didn't last long at all for a team down two QBs due to concussion protocols.
Within minutes, the number adjusted all the way to Vikings -3, and Minnesota advanced to -3.5 late this morning.
Point-spread ticket count is just shy of 2/1 Vikings, but point-spread money is just beyond 2/1 Dolphins.
The total opened at 46.5, fell to 45.5 early Monday, went to 46 this morning and is now 45.5 again. The Under is taking 57% of early bets/82% of early cash.
Earlier today, the Dolphins ruled out Tua Tagovailoa for this week week. And even if Teddy Bridgewater is cleared, it's likely he'll serve as the No. 2 Sunday behind rookie seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Miami's 3-0 SU and ATS start is fading away without Tua Tagovailoa, as he remains in concussion protocol. And backup Teddy Bridgewater joined Tagovailoa in concussion protocol, getting hurt on his first play against the New York Jets.
So in came third-string QB Skylar Thompson, who actually helped the Dolphins hang around for three quarters, trailing 19-17. But Miami (3-2 SU and ATS), a 3-point road fave, allowed 21 fourth-quarter points while losing 40-17.
Minnesota continues to win on the field, but isn't doing the job for spread bettors. The Vikings (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS), laying 8.5 points at home, needed a late TD to top Chicago 29-22. Minnesota has dropped four in a row ATS.
"This is a tough one to set with the Dolphins' QB woes," The SuperBook's John Murray said. "We had this game a pick ’em on the look-ahead line and were taking bets on Miami at that number, prior to Sunday's results. This is a very interesting game to keep an eye on, as we get closer to the weekend."
The Vikings are stable at -3 tonight, and the total hasn't moved off 45.5.
Opening line: Pick; Over/Under 40
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Prime Video)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Forty-five minutes ahead of kickoff, Washington is a 1-point favorite at WynnBet. This clash of the not-so titans opened at pick 'em late Sunday night, went to Chicago -1 Tuesday morning, then returned to pick Wednesday afternoon.
This afternoon, Washington got to -1, then spent about an hour at -1.5 before going back to -1 early this evening. The Bears are taking 56% of spread tickets, but 84% of spread money is on the Commanders.
WynnBet said tonight's ideal outcome would be Bears outright and the Over. The total opened at 39.5, dipped to 38 by Monday evening and hasn't moved since, save for a couple of price adjustments. The Under is taking 64% of tickets/72% of money.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: A few hours before game time, Caesars Sports has Washington as a 1-point chalk on the NFL Week 6 odds board. The Thursday night matchup has bounced between Bears -1/pick 'em/Commanders -1 multiple times this week.
Chicago is seeing 71% of spread tickets/59% of spread money.
The total opened at 40, bottomed out at 37.5 late Tuesday night and is now 38. Betting splits on the total aren't available today.
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: In what may well be a very non-riveting clash, PointsBet USA opened this game a pick 'em on Sunday night. Both teams spent some time as the favorite, with Washington no more than -1 and Chicago getting to -1.5 a couple of times, including -1.5 (-105) this morning.
The line has since returned to pick 'em, although early spread tickets and money are running 4/1 on the host Bears.
PointsBet opened the total at 40 and headed south from there, bottoming out at 37.5 a couple of times Tuesday. It's now at 38, with ticket count almost dead even and money approaching 4/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: This matchup might just be another grind of a Thursday Night Football game, though it'd be hard to do worse than last week's Colts-Broncos tilt.
Washington (1-4 SU and ATS) is on an 0-4 SU and ATS skid entering the first game on the NFL Week 6 odds board. The Commanders fell to the Titans 21-17 in a game that closed pick 'em. Carson Wentz threw an interception on third-and-goal at the 2-yard line in the waning seconds.
Chicago (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) went to Minnesota as an 8.5-point underdog and was in position to post an upset. But the Vikings got a late TD, handing the Bears a 29-22 loss.
"I know the Thursday night games aren’t always the best, but this is ridiculous," The SuperBook's John Murray said, indicating he's not expecting much of this matchup. "We hung pick ’em and saw money come in both ways. Take your best guess."
Neither the spread nor total moved tonight.