July 12, 2021
2021 New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Predictions, Preview
Breaking down a team with an uncertain quarterback situation is always gonna be hard. Now multiply that by ten when you’re replacing one of the best quarterbacks to ever touch a football field with either a guy that has led the league in interceptions or one who has been more productive as a tight end. All jokes aside, Jameis Winston is currently the betting favorite to start Week #1 at -280. Based on all the information available it does seem like Winston will act as the main option while Hill’s role as a gadget player will continue to be prevalent.
This offense is gonna be dependent on a lot of young guys to step up. With Alvin and Kamara and Michael Thomas being the headliners of this offense there isn’t much depth beyond that. Winston will likely be throwing the ball to a combination of third-round tight end Adam Trautman, undrafted wide receiver Marquez Callaway, and the forever disappointing Tre'Quan Smith. Winstons gunslinger mentality has led him to enable some lesser-known receivers in the past, the Saints will definitely need him to tap into that this year.
Over the last couple of seasons, the Saints have consistently relied on their strong defense and that shouldn’t change this year. That being said free agency wasn’t fun, losing big names such as Trey Hendrickson, Kwon Alexander, Janoris Jenkins along with a couple more starters. This defense should remain top 15 in the NFL but with the way the offense is shaping up, they may need a bit more production than that.
Last season we saw Drew Brees, who struggled to throw the ball 15 yards down the field, and Taysom Hill lead this team to a 13-5 record, its quite surprising to see the win total set at 9. I believe this year will be ugly, similar to last season, but I find it hard to believe Payton won’t lead this team to their fifth straight 10 win season.
2021 New Orleans Saints Schedule
Win Total Odds
New Orleans Saints Odds to Win NFC South
I really have no interest in betting the Saints to win the NFC South. This Division is quite obviously the Buccaneers to lose and I’m not convinced the Saints have the firepower necessary to take them down. +300 is always gonna be appealing for a team coming off a 13 win season but I’m just not seeing enough value when they share the division with one of the best teams in the league. If your a Saints fan and very eager to get some action then I would definitely recommend starting with the win totals.
New Orleans Saints Odds to Win NFC Championship
Many people will argue that Jamies Winston and Taysom Hill will be a huge downgrade from last year, I personally disagree. Despite Drew Brees being one of the best quarterbacks ever he struggled to push the ball down the field and the offense stagnated heavily, looking embarrassing in the playoffs. I’m not saying Jamies and Hill are going to drastically improve this offense but I expect somewhat similar production to last season.
That being said, I’m still not interested in the Saints winning the NFC Championship. I expect the Saints to beat all the teams we expect them to, finish around 10-7, and end up with a first-round exit.
New Orleans Saints Odds to Win Super Bowl 56
For this to be possible we would either need an MVP season out of Winston or multiple young defensive players to show up and be elite. Neither of these things is particularly likely and that’s shown with the +2800 odds. I don’t think this team will be bad in many areas but you need to be exceptional to win a Superbowl and I’m not convinced they are.
New Orleans Saints 2021 MVP Contenders & Odds
Jameis Winston +5000
Alvin Kamara +10000
Taysom Hill +10000
Michael Thomas +15000
I’m honestly shocked to see this number so low in comparison to some other guys on this list. Last year Winston wasn’t even the first option when Brees went down, leading to Hill starting multiple games. We all know the arm talent is there but winning an MVP requires more than that, otherwise, we would have seen him win it the year he lead the league in passing yards, with 30 additional interceptions.
Kamara should once again serve as the workhorse back for Saints. Coming off an impressive season with 932 rushing yards, 756 receiving yards, and 21 combined touchdowns I expect another impressive season from the former Volunteer. That being said there’s no way I’m betting a running back to win MVP. He would need a 2012 Andrian Peterson type of season and I’m expecting that kind of ceiling performance this year.
I'm good on Hill, don't waste your money there.
Thomas is someone I’m super interested in this season. Despite being one season removed from leading the league in receiving yards Thomas has already been relegated to “Slant Boy”. Coming off an injury-riddled season it’s easy to forget he had at least 1000 yards in every season prior with two back-to-back 1400+ yard seasons.
You also need to consider the quarterback situation, if Winston starts all year and we see the quarterback we all remembered then this will unarguably benefit Thomas. Winston may not actually be an upgrade in terms of wins but if he continues to push the ball down the field and target his number one receiver despite the threat of interception that Thomas’s numbers will skyrocket. I expect Thomas to be force-fed the ball this year considering his WR2 on the team may be the worst in Football.
A wide receiver won’t be the MVP award this season but I do like a pivot to him leading the league in receiving yards which is 15/1 on most books.
New Orleans Saints Preseason Betting Odds & Markets
Make Playoff?: Yes +114 No -139
Doing a quick schedule analysis will let you know that the Saints probably won’t win the most, or the least games this year. Making the playoffs at +114 is quite surprising though, especially considering their recent success. They play the Packers, Bills, Football Team, Titans, Cowboys, and Buccaneers x2 this year.
If they can win at least one of two of those games then they can afford to drop a game or two to a lesser team. I think this Saints squad may be good enough to split with the Buccaneers and take 1 of 2 vs the Cowboys and Football Team. This should put them in a solid position to make the playoffs and pay off solid value at +114
2020 New Orleans Saints Betting Results