Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:01 PM
Sunday Blitz - Week 11
GAMES TO WATCH
Cowboys at Falcons (-3 ½, 49 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
It took over two months, but the Cowboys (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) finally won a game away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas began the season 0-4 on the road, but broke through in last Sunday’s 27-20 victory at Philadelphia as 7 ½-point underdogs. Ezekiel Elliott scored his second touchdown of the game with 3:19 remaining to break a 20-20 tie as Dallas picked up its third consecutive cover in the underdog role.
Atlanta (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) is back at home after splitting a pair of road contests at Washington and Cleveland. The Falcons were tripped up by the Browns last week as 5 ½-point favorites in a 28-16 defeat to snap a three-game winning streak. Atlanta slipped to 2-4 ATS in the favorite role this season, but the Falcons have won each of their last two games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium over the Buccaneers and Giants.
Dallas has yet to win consecutive games this season, as the Cowboys have won 17 points or less in the first three chances off a victory. The Falcons crushed the Cowboys last season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 27-7 as 3 ½-point favorites. To put the situations in perspective considering these teams met in Week 10 in 2017, the Cowboys owned a better record than the Falcons (5-3 vs. 4-4) and Dallas was on a three-game winning streak.
Best Bet: Falcons 28, Cowboys 20
Texans (-3, 42 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST
A pair of unlikely division leaders meet up in D.C. each seeking a 7-3 start. Washington (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) won only seven games last season, but can equal with that mark with a victory on Sunday with six games remaining. The Redskins bounced back from a 24-point home loss to the Falcons to knock off the Buccaneers in Tampa, 16-3 as 3 ½-point underdogs last week. Although Washington’s defense allowed 501 yards to Tampa Bay, the Redskins held the Bucs out of the end zone as the lone touchdown connection came from Alex Smith to Josh Doctson in the third quarter.
The Texans (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) began the season in an 0-3 hole, but Houston has rebounded in a huge way by winning six consecutive games to take over first place in the AFC South. Although Houston has scored 20 points or less in four of the past five games, the Texans have limited four opponents to 17 points or fewer. The Texans are off the bye week as Houston held off Denver two weeks ago, 19-17 as newly acquired Demaryius Thomas hauled in three catches for 61 yards against his former team.
Houston is listed as a road favorite for the third time this season as the Texans lost at Tennessee and won in overtime at Indianapolis. The Redskins have put together a solid 5-1 ATS mark when receiving points this season, including outright home underdog victories over Dallas, Carolina, and Green Bay. Houston is making its first trip to Washington since defeating the Redskins at FedEx Field in overtime in 2010.
Best Bet: Redskins 19, Texans 17
Eagles at Saints (-8, 56) – 4:25 PM EST
The defending champions and the team that has a legitimate shot at the championship meet up in the prime late kickoff at the Superdome. Philadelphia (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) has suffered through a Super Bowl hangover as the Eagles haven’t won back-to-back games all season. The Eagles dropped their third consecutive home game last Sunday night against the Cowboys, as each of the past two wins for Philadelphia have come away from Lincoln Financial Field against the Jaguars (in London) and Giants.
The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) allowed 48 points to Tampa Bay in the season opener in a shocking loss as 10-point favorites. New Orleans hasn’t lost since, riding an eight-game winning streak after scoring nearly 100 points in the past two weeks. The Saints avoided a letdown after their thrilling 45-35 victory over the Rams in Week 9, as New Orleans wiped out Cincinnati last Sunday, 51-14 as six-point road favorites. Drew Brees threw three touchdown passes against the Bengals to improve his touchdown to interception ratio to an incredible 20/1 this season.
Philadelphia is listed as an underdog for the first time in 2018, as the Eagles posted a 6-2 ATS mark during their Super Bowl run when receiving points. The Saints are in their biggest favorite position since Week 2 against Cleveland when they laid 10 points and escaped with a three-point win. These teams haven’t met since 2015 when the Eagles destroyed the Saints, 39-17 at Lincoln Financial Field.
Best Bet: Saints 30, Eagles 27
Kevin Rogers (1-4 last week, 24-24-2 on season)
Falcons -3 ½
Vikings +2 ½
Chris David (5-0 last week, 31-18-1 on season)
Raiders +5 ½
BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 5-5 on season)
UNDER 46 ½ - Steelers at Jaguars
Jacksonville has been an unmitigated disaster the last five weeks by losing five times since jumping out to a 3-1 start. However, the Jaguars welcome in a Steelers’ squad that Jacksonville defeated twice last season, including knocking out Pittsburgh in the divisional playoffs. Pittsburgh is coming off a fantastic offensive performance against Carolina in Week 10 by dropping 52 point on the Panthers. However, the Steelers have been carried by their defense, which has allowed 21 points or less in five consecutive games, while Jacksonville has yielded 20 points or fewer in four games at TIAA Bank Field this season.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The two Los Angeles teams have combined for a 16-3 mark this season with plenty of spotlight on the Rams, who host the Chiefs in a Monday night showdown this week. However, we’ll focus on the Chargers, who own a 7-2 mark and have won six in a row. Los Angeles returns home to face Denver, as the Broncos are off the bye week and have picked up only one road victory this season. However, the Broncos have hung with some of the league’s best in a pair of close losses to the Chiefs and a narrow home setback to the Rams.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Cardinals opened as 3 ½-point home favorites against the Raiders in a battle of two teams fighting for the top pick in next April’s NFL draft. Arizona has ascended to a 5 ½-point favorite at many books as Oakland has failed to cover in five straight games. The Cardinals are listed as a favorite for only the second time this season as they were steamrolled by the Redskins in Week 1 as two-point chalk, 24-6.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Giants don’t put together consecutive solid efforts (you probably knew that). Dating back to last season, New York owns a dreadful 0-8 ATS mark in its last eight off an ATS win, as the Giants are in this situation on Sunday against Tampa Bay. The G-Men rallied past the 49ers last Monday on the road, but New York is winless in four home contests this season, while losing 10 of its past 12 games at Met Life Stadium.
Want FREE picks for Week 11 in the NFL? Check them out here for the top three games of the weekend along with other insider selections.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.