Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 14:01 PM
Sunday Blitz - Week 13
GAMES TO WATCH
Ravens at Falcons (-1 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST
Atlanta (4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS) has been one of the biggest disappointments this season as the Falcons are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2015. The Falcons overcame a 1-4 start by winning three straight games, but Atlanta has gone the opposite way of late following three consecutive losses to Cleveland, Dallas, and New Orleans. To make matters worse, the Falcons are helping backers when playing at Mercedes Benz Stadium by going 2-4 ATS following a 5-3 ATS home mark in 2017.
The Ravens (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have been the epitome of an enigma, as Baltimore started 4-2, but then lost three in a row to fall below .500. Quarterback Joe Flacco suffered a hip injury against Pittsburgh, opening the door for rookie and Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson to take over. Jackson has led the Ravens to back-to-back home wins over the Bengals and Raiders to creep back over the .500 mark, while Baltimore snapped a three-game ATS slide in last week’s cover as 13-point favorites against Oakland.
Baltimore is listed as a road underdog for the first time since a Week 4 triumph at Pittsburgh, while making its first trip to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Ravens knocked off the Falcons in their last matchup in 2014 at home, 29-7, as Atlanta looks to defeat an AFC North opponent for the first time in four tries this season.
Best Bet: Falcons 27, Ravens 19
Rams (-10, 55) at Lions – 1:00 PM EST
Amazingly, it took until December for the Rams (10-1 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) to play a game that kicks off at 1:00 EST. The first 11 contests for Los Angeles began either at 4:05, 4:25, or were primetime contests, so it will be interesting to see how the Rams respond, especially coming off the bye. The Rams last took the field in the wild 54-51 Week 11 victory over the Chiefs at the Coliseum. Jared Goff lit up Kansas City’s defense for 413 yards and four touchdowns, while Todd Gurley rushed for only 55 yards for the Rams.
The Lions (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS) suffered their fourth loss in the last five games in a 23-16 Thanksgiving setback to the Bears. Matthew Stafford’s pass was intercepted for a Chicago touchdown with six minutes remaining to send the Lions to their third home loss of the season and their first as a home ‘dog. Since scoring 32 points against the Dolphins in Week 7, Detroit has failed to bust the 22-point mark in the last five weeks.
In spite of Los Angeles currently sitting in the top spot of the NFC, the Rams have not been kind to backers recently. The Rams began the season owning a 3-0 ATS mark, but Sean McVay’s club has compiled an ugly 1-6-1 ATS record the last eight weeks with five ATS losses as a touchdown favorite or higher. The last time these teams met up in 2016 at Ford Field, the Lions edged the Rams, 31-28 as Goff is facing Detroit for the first time in his career.
Best Bet: Rams 31, Lions 24
Vikings at Patriots (-5, 49 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Minnesota (6-4-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) is looking to capitalize off last week’s 24-17 home victory over Green Bay as the Vikings are looking up at the Bears for the top position in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins put together one of his best games as a Viking by tossing three touchdown passes and 342 yards, including the game-clinching connection to Adam Thielen to give Minnesota a 24-14 advantage. The Vikings are playing in their second 4:25 PM EST game of the season, as three of the past four contests have come in primetime.
The Patriots (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) rebounded from an ugly 24-point loss at Tennessee prior to their bye week by pulling away from the Jets last Sunday, 27-13 to barely cash as 13-point road favorites. Tight end Rob Gronkowski returned to the lineup and caught a 34-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to get the Pats on the scoreboard in the first quarter. Brady led the Pats to a pair of touchdown scoring drives in the second half to help New England improve to 3-0 in division play and even their road mark to 3-3 on the season.
New England owns a flawless 5-0 record at Gillette Stadium, while covering in four of those victories. Brady has never lost to the Vikings in four tries in his career dating back to 2002 with the most recent win coming in 2014 in Minneapolis, 30-7. The Vikings have compiled a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog with the lone outright victory coming at Philadelphia in Week 5.
Best Bet: Vikings 26, Patriots 23
Kevin Rogers (3-2 last week, 30-28-2 this season)
Bengals +4 ½
Raiders +14 ½
Jets +7 ½
Chris David (4-1 last week, 39-20-1 this season)
Panthers -3 ½
Browns +5 ½
Bills +4 ½
Giants +5 ½
Packers -13 ½
BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 47 – Colts at Jaguars
This is a vice-versa angle for this AFC South matchup as Indianapolis outlasted Jacksonville, 29-26 in the first matchup three weeks ago. Now, the teams hook up in north Florida as Cody Kessler will start at quarterback for Jacksonville in place of the ineffective Blake Bortles. The Jaguars have failed to eclipse the 21-point mark in six of the past seven games, while hitting the UNDER in three of the last four contests at TIAA Bank Field. The Colts are riding a four-game OVER streak on the road, but look for a lower-scoring affair on Sunday.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Texans are riding an eight-game winning streak after knocking off the Titans last Monday night. Houston remains at home this week to host Cleveland, who blew out Cincinnati last Sunday to improve to 4-6-1. This line is hovering around -5 ½ to -6 for Houston, as the Texans are 1-2 ATS when laying at least five points this season. The Browns have cashed in five of eight opportunities as a road underdog, while seeking their first three-game winning streak since 2014.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Dolphins squandered a 10-point fourth quarter lead in last week’s 27-24 setback at Indianapolis to slip to 5-6. Miami returns home to battle Buffalo for the first time this season as Bills seek their third consecutive win. The Dolphins opened as 6 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Sunday night, but that number has plummeted to 3 ½ at most sports books. Miami owns a 4-1 record at Hard Rock Stadium and is playing its second home game in the last six weeks.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
One of the hottest ATS teams in the league is the Broncos, who look for their third road win of the season at Cincinnati. Denver began the season by posting an ugly 0-4-1 ATS ledger the first five weeks, but have rebounded by compiling a 5-1 ATS record the past six games. During that stretch, four of those covers came in the underdog role, including in last week’s home triumph over Pittsburgh. The last time the Broncos were listed as a favorite of more than a field goal, they failed to cash in a 20-19 Week 2 win over the Raiders.
Want FREE picks for Week 13 in the NFL? Check them out here for the top three games of the weekend along with other insider selections.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.