Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:00 AM
Sunday Blitz - Week 14
GAMES TO WATCH
Ravens at Chiefs (-6 ½, 51) – 1:00 PM EST
All of the sudden, Baltimore (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) has come back to life following a three-game losing streak along with quarterback Joe Flacco being sidelined. Rookie Lamar Jackson has led the Ravens to three straight wins, including his first road win as a starter in last Sunday’s 26-16 triumph at Atlanta as 2 ½-point underdogs. Baltimore ran all over the Atlanta defense to the tune of 207 yards, including 75 and a touchdown from Jackson, while holding the ball for nearly 40 minutes.
The Chiefs (10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) are on track for a home-field advantage in the AFC as they hold a one-game edge over the Patriots entering Sunday, although New England owns the tiebreaker. Kansas City has yet to lose at Arrowhead Stadium this season (5-0), but have failed to cover in their last two home victories against Arizona and Denver. The Chiefs outlasted the Raiders last Sunday, 40-33 as 14-point road favorites, led by Patrick Mahomes’ seventh game this season throwing at least four touchdown passes.
These two teams haven’t met since 2015 when the Chiefs routed the Ravens, 34-14 (without Flacco) as 6 ½-point road favorites. Baltimore has won in each of its past three visits to Arrowhead Stadium, including a 9-6 triumph back in 2012. The Ravens own a 2-0 SU/ATS record in its last two opportunities as a road underdog, while last being listed as a ‘dog of at least 6 ½ points in a 2016 loss at Dallas.
Best Bet: Chiefs 27, Ravens 21
Colts at Texans (-4 ½, 50) – 1:00 PM EST
Houston (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) dug themselves an 0-3 hole out of the gate, but hasn’t lost since September. Nine wins later, the Texans are on the doorstep of capturing the AFC South title which seemed like a pipe dream in October. The latest victory came in last Sunday’s 29-13 blowout of the Browns as five-point home favorites, even though Houston scored only one offensive touchdown. Deshaun Watson has gone through five of the past six games without throwing an interception, while the defense has allowed 21 points or fewer in seven of the previous eight contests.
The Colts (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) also rebounded from a slow start (1-5) to get back into the Wild Card race. Indianapolis pulled off five consecutive wins to cross over the .500 threshold, but the Colts were stunned last Sunday in a 6-0 defeat at Jacksonville as four-point favorites. Yes, Indianapolis held Jacksonville out of the end zone, but the offense was limited to below 24 points for the first time since scoring 16 in a Week 3 defeat at Philadelphia.
In the first matchup at Lucas Oil Field in Week 4, the Texans built a 28-10 advantage before the Colts roared back to force overtime on an Andrew Luck touchdown pass in the final minutes of regulation. Indianapolis took the lead in overtime with an Adam Vinatieri field goal, but the Texans kicked two field goals to pick up the 37-34 victory to begin this nine-game winning streak. The Colts have seen success at NRG Stadium over the years by winning three of the past four matchups in Houston.
Best Bet: Colts 19, Texans 14
Eagles at Cowboys (-3 ½, 44) – 4:25 PM EST
The party isn’t over yet for the defending champions, as Philadelphia (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) is one victory away from pulling into a tie for the top spot in the NFC East. The Eagles have suffered through the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, but are coming off a pair of home divisional wins over the Giants and Redskins to remain alive for a playoff berth in the NFC. Philadelphia pulled away from Washington last Monday night, 28-13 to cash as 5 ½-point favorites, as the Eagles scored 14 fourth quarter points to improve to 3-1 inside the NFC East.
The lone loss for Philadelphia came at home to Dallas last month, 27-20 as 7 ½-point favorites. The Cowboys (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) broke a 20-20 tie late in the fourth quarter on an Ezekiel Elliott 1-yard touchdown run (his second of the game) to give the Cowboys their fourth victory at Lincoln Financial Field in the last five seasons.
That victory turned things around for Dallas, who has won four straight games, including a Week 13 triumph as a home underdog against New Orleans to snap the Saints’ 10-game winning streak. The Cowboys have done most of their damage during this stretch as a favorite, but Dallas has slumped to a 2-3 ATS mark in the underdog role this season.
Best Bet: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20
Kevin Rogers (2-3 last week, 32-31-2 this season)
Panthers -2 ½
Falcons +5 ½
Steelers -10 ½
Chris David (2-3 last week, 43-21-1 this season)
Patriots -7 ½
Lions -2 ½
Vikings +3 ½
BEST TOTAL PLAY
OVER 48 – Bengals at Chargers (1-0 last week, 8-5 this season)
Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious all season long by allowing at least 30 points six times. The Bengals are currently on a 4-1 OVER run after hitting a rare UNDER in last week’s 24-10 defeat to the Broncos. Cincinnati will have its hands full as it travels cross-country to face Los Angeles, as the Chargers have scored 78 points in the past two wins over Arizona and Pittsburgh. The defensive numbers have improved for the Lightning Bolts since the first month, but it’s hard to ignore how explosive L.A.’s offense is along with Cincinnati’s struggles to stop the opposition.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Broncos have won three consecutive games and remain in the race for one of the two Wild Card spots in the AFC. Denver hits the road for the second straight week after blowing out Cincinnati as the Broncos are laying points once again. The Broncos travel west to face the 49ers, who have lost three straight and nine of their past 10 games. Denver opened up as six-point favorites last Monday at the Westgate Superbook, but that line has dipped to 3 ½ at most books. Interestingly enough, this only the third time this season that San Francisco is listed as a home underdog, going 1-1 SU/ATS in its first two opportunities.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Redskins’ season was on the up-and-up at 6-3, but back-to-back defeats and the loss of quarterback Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury ended any playoff hopes for Washington. The Redskins turned to Colt McCoy last Monday against the Eagles and he left with injury in a 15-point loss, setting the stage for Mark Sanchez to start at home when the Giants come to town. New York opened as a 1 ½-point underdog last Monday prior to Washington’s game at Philadelphia, but the Giants have been flipped to a 3 ½-point ‘dog. Washington has thrived in the home underdog role this season by posting a 4-0 ATS mark.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
It took until Week 14, but the Bills are favored for the first time this season when they host the Jets. Buffalo destroyed New York in Week 10 at Met Life Stadium, 41-10 as seven-point underdogs, while outgaining the Jets, 451-199. The last time the Bills were favored came in Week 17 last season at Miami, as Buffalo posted a solid 5-1-1 ATS record in 2017 when laying points.
Want FREE picks for Week 14 in the NFL? Check them out here for the top three games of the weekend along with other insider selections.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at [email protected]
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