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Vegas Money Moves – Week 14

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
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There’s a couple of marquee matchups in Week 14 NFL action with the Chiefs at New England (-3.5), Ravens (-6) at Buffalo, and Seahawks (PK) at Los Angeles against the Rams, but none of those have more importance than the 49ers at New Orleans where the Saints are 2.5-point home favorites.
 
Three NFC teams are currently tied atop the standings at 10-2 with the Saints, Seahawks, and Rams. With only four weeks of action remaining in the regular season, seeding for the playoffs and a first-round bye could come down to who wins Sunday in New Orleans.
 
The 49ers come in with covers in their last three games, the last two with leading receiver, tight end George Kittle, back in the lineup. Kittle missed games in Week 10 and 11 and the 49ers offense wasn’t as potent.   
 
The Saints have been a steady for bettors the last 10 weeks going 8-2 against the spread (ATS), but so far it’s been the 49ers getting the most attention at the betting windows. 
 
“All the casual bettors are playing the 49ers -- no sharp play on it -- and they’re all over the money-line as well,” said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. 
 
Westgate Las Vegas Superbook VP Jay Kornegay said their most one-sided public action is on 49ers this week. 
 
Meanwhile, over at the Wynn sportsbook, director Doug Castaneda said the 49ers is their No. 1 sharp play so far heading into the weekend. He said it was +3 on San Francisco that was scooped up fast earlier in the week.

As great as the Saints recent ATS record is, it’s important to note they failed to cover their last two home games, one was an awful loss to the Falcons (+14) and another was a 34-31 win against the Panthers (+10). The Saints laying less than a field goal at home would appear to be attractive, but that isn’t the case. 
 
Kornegay also said the Ravens and Seahawks were popular public plays at his famous Superbook while their top sharp play has been on a trio of bad teams: the Buccaneers, Raiders, and Bengals. 
 
“They (wiseguys) took a little bit with the Ravens laying -5.5 (at Buffalo) and we’re at -6 now,” said DiTommaso. “Someone else (respected money) took +13 with the Redskins so we moved it down to +12, but Packers money has been trickling in so we moved it up to -12.5.”
 
The Ravens (10-2) are in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the Bills (9-3) are only one game behind. The Bills have been one of the better cover teams in the NFL at 8-3-1 ATS, but most of their damage has been done on the road (5-0-1 ATS). The Ravens have won their last seven games (5-2 ATS).  
 
South Point's sportsbook director Chris Andrews has also seen sharp action on the Redskins, Bengals, and Rams. 
 
CG Books have also seen Bengals play as well spurred by a rejuvenated and motivated quarterback in Andy Dalton who comes off the Bengals first win of the season last week against the Jets.

“They took +8 with the Bengals, but have been holding steady at Browns -7 since moving there,” DiTommaso said. “They also laid -3 with the Falcons (at home vs Panthers) and took the Dolphins +6 while another group laid -5 with the Jets.”
 
Opinions on the Falcons and Jets? I guess there’s always an angle to help persuade a bet.  
 
“They’re on the Chargers again, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why,” said DiTommaso of the Chargers tendencies to lose most close games. 
 
The Chargers are three-point road favorites at Jacksonville.
 
“Sharp money laid -2 with the Steelers and we got to -3 EVEN,” said DiTommaso, ”But then we got someone else taking the Cardinals higher money-line at +130.”        
 
The Cardinals come off their worst offensive performance of the season against the Rams and Kyler Murray played his worst game of the season and looked like a rookie QB for the first time since Week 2. The Cards have lost five straight while the Steelers have won six of their last seven games, going 5-2 ATS for bettors.
 
The Superbook opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point road favorites in their Sunday night game against the Rams and it’s down to pick ‘em. The Rams are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games. The Seahawks have won their last five and covered their last four.


Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.


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