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Hot & Not Report - Week 4



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Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS

NFL Week 4 Betting Angles

Last week's trends that were outlined provided mixed results, as those teams on the 'Hot' side of the equation went 2-4 ATS in the end, but the ATS results in the Dallas, Houston, and Tennessee games could have been a lot different that would have helped out that Week 3 trend further.

Fading the 2-0 ATS teams on the road ended up going 2-1 ATS, but it got the benefit of being on the right side of that late call in the Buffalo Bills game that saw the home team leave the building with the SU and ATS victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

Those are lines of thought that should be kept in mind for next season though, as the 2-0 and 0-2 angles will be brought up once again.

This week's piece looks to build upon that from both the immediate future this week, and the futures market down the road. 

Who's Hot

NFL teams that are 0-3 ATS entering Week 4 are 6-1 SU as favorites (5-1 SU as home favorites) the past five years. 

Thanks to how well backing those 0-2 ATS teams in Week 3 of the season has worked the past few years, we don't always get many 0-3 ATS teams coming into Week 4.

But this year we've got five of them, and four of the five are suiting up at home this week.

Who do you Follow?

  • Titans
  • Eagles
  • Jets
  • Texans
  • Cowboys 

Now that Week 4 outright run by 0-3 teams does omit the Chargers victory in Miami a season ago given that both sides were 0-3 ATS that day and someone had to win, but that's still quite the record for these teams that haven't come close to market expectation so to speak.

I mean, we do have the anomaly of Tennessee being 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS which is something that I'll touch on later, but being 0-3 ATS generally means your team is sitting with a losing record after three weeks and desperately needs the win to keep their season alive.

A 3-3-1 ATS record in those seven games makes laying the points a little trickier – especially if there are some of those nasty hooks around, but this 6-1 SU mark for favorites that have yet to cover a point spread begs the question;

How attractive does a Houston ML – Dallas ML parlay look to you this week?

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Obviously a parlay isn't needed in the end, but with the Cowboys laying -4.5 at home vs Cleveland, and Houston laying -4 at home vs Minnesota, they are the only two 0-3 ATS teams that come into Week 3 as favorites.

Underdogs in this role in Week 4 are 6-2 ATS over that same five-year span with four outright winners in those games, so be on the look out for the Jets (+2) on TNF, Tennessee (+3) at home vs Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia +7 visiting San Francisco as well.

Who's Not

No NFL team that has started a year 0-3 ATS has gone on to make the Super Bowl that season the past five years. 

It was in this piece after Week 1 that I brought up the idea about drastically eliminating nearly half of the Super Bowl futures market based on those teams starting 0-1 SU. Only eight of 36 had done it, and half were New England where you knew they still had a division title locked up and at least one home playoff game.

Well, you can trim down that futures list even further if you want with these 0-3 ATS teams, as none of them have gone on to make the Super Bowl that season.

Again, not too surprising given that most 0-3 ATS teams are going to likely be 1-2 SU at best more often than not, but this year we do have the Tennessee Titans as the lone team to be 1-0 SU after Week 1 and 0-3 ATS after three weeks, so sorry Titans fans, might be time to rip up those Super Bowl futures. I wouldn't whole heartedly buy into that, but three wins by a grand total of six points is really hard to do. Kicking issues made that Week 1 score closer then it needed to be, but with the Titans now the first NFL team dealing with a virus issue, who knows how derailed their season could get here.

Obviously no need to actually rip any futures ticket up yet, but I wouldn't be going to invest in the Titans right now.

This no Super Bowl trips for 0-3 ATS teams does bring another layer to the interesting dilemma in the NFC East between the Cowboys and Eagles. At least on one side of the ball there are huge concerns for both teams, and yet, with what Washington and the Giants look like this year, it's still highly likely that one of the Cowboys or Eagles ends  up on that New England path of starting out 0-1 SU and trying to make a Super Bowl.

But the Pats never started out a season 0-3 ATS in any of the seasons starting with the 2014-15 season that saw them make a Super Bowl, a year they did start out 0-1 SU and win it all. 

Right now, Dallas is sitting in the +1800 range to win it all right now with Philly further back around +5000. Those are two tickets I think you really want no part of right now as Dallas has to find a defense, and Philly's got to find or fix numerous things on offense.

Both sides may end up bringing a bit more hope after this week if the Week 4 history of 0-3 ATS teams winning outright being on a 10-5 SU run continues for them specifically, but outside of being the side to outlast whatever brand of football the NFC East ends up being this year, it may actually be time to rip up other futures on these two squads.

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