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Over-Under NFL Week 11 Total Predictions, Odds



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Handicapping Week 11 Totals

-- We're on to Week 11 of the NFL regular season, and we have a handful of injury issues at the quarterback position to watch heading into Sunday.

-- The Carolina Panthers lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to a medial collateral ligament injury on a sack late in the fourth quarter of the Week 10 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was limited in practice Wednesday, and the team gave QBs Will Grier and P.J. Walker reps in practice just in case they're needed to start.

-- On a positive note, the Dallas Cowboys are expected to welcome back QB Andy Dalton (concussion) after a two-week stint which saw QBs Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert try to right the ship. Since QB Dak Prescott went down, the Cowboys have posted 10, 3, 9 and 19 points, so even with Dalton, it might not mean much if you like 'over' results.

-- Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock (ribs) has been dealing with banged up ribs, which would explain his rough performance against the Las Vegas Raiders last week when he tossed four interceptions. He isn't expected to practice in full, if at all, until Friday. He is reportedly feeling better, and is still expected to face the Miami Dolphins.

-- Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford (thumb) did not practice Wednesday, and the team intends to limit his reps due to a partially torn ligament in his right thumb on his throwing hand. He has vowed to play through the injury, but if he cannot go or is held out, QB Chase Daniel would make the start.

-- Jacksonville Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew (thumb) has been cleared for individual work, but not team drills, so he will sit again as he rebounds from a fractured thumb. QB Jake Luton is expected to make another start.

-- Last, but certainly not least, the New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees (ribs, lung) suffered broken ribs and a punctured lung on a sack at the end of the second quarter last week against the San Francisco 49ers. Brees sought out a second opinion on his injury, but the results were the same. As it stands, he will miss Sunday's game, and at least one more. That means QB Jameis Winston is likely to make his first start fpr the team against the Atlanta Falcons, although QB Taysom Hill could also be involved a little more than usual.

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a decent amount of movement for several totals in Week 11. Bettors have reacted early and often.

Down

  • Atlanta at New Orleans: 52.5 to 50.5
  • Kansas City at Las Vegas: 59.5 to 57
  • Detroit at Carolina: 49 to 47.5

Up

  • New England at Houston: 46.5 to 49
  • Green at Indianapolis: 47.5 to 49
  • Philadelphia at Cleveland: 46 to 47.5
  • Tennessee at Baltimore: 47.5 to 49

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 11 as of Thursday.

  • Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 97%
  • Cincinnati at Washington: Over 94%
  • Green Bay at Indianapolis: Over 84%
  • Tennessee at Baltimore: Over 80%
  • New England at Houston: Over 73%
  • Dallas at Minnesota: Over 61%
  • Miami at Denver: Under 90%
  • N.Y. Jets at L.A. Clippers: Under 87%
  • Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: Under 87%
  • L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay (MNF): Under 71%
  • Philadelphia at Cleveland: Under 70%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'under' went 4-3 in the seven NFL Divisional battles in Week 10, and the 'over/under' is now tied 25-25-1 (50.0%) overall this season.

We have just two divisional matchups on tap for Sunday, not including Thursday's Arizona-Seattle battle.

Atlanta at New Orleans: The Falcons have rallied around interim head coach Raheem Morris, winning three of the past four games after an 0-5 SU start. While Morris is known as a defensive coach, the offense has come alive under the new regime. The Falcons have scored 40, 22, 25 and 34 across the past four outings, hitting the 'over' in two of those outings. While the offense has been better under Morris, so has the defense. The Falcons allowed 34.5 PPG across the first four games this season, but just 21.2 PPG over the previous five.

For the Saints, we touched on the quarterback situation above. While being without a future Hall of Famer under center is bad, it's not as bad as it could be. Winston is still a quarterback capable of throwing it down the field, and if he uses the short and intermediate routes, he has RB Alvin Kamara out of the backfield, the NFL's leader in terms of scrimmage yardage. The Saints likely won't see a huge drop in offensive production just because Brees is on the shelf.

Kansas City at Las Vegas (SNF): (see below)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 10 featured two non-conference matchups and the totals result in a 1-1 stalemate.

We have three more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 10 schedule.

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 Cincinnati at Washington: The Bengals were unable to carry over the momentum of their 31-20 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 8, getting dropped 36-10 on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10, their second-lowest offensive production of the season. Like the division rival Cleveland Browns, the Bengals have had absolutely nothing in road games in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, totaling just 13 points in those two games. However, in the rest of their schedule, Cincinnati has managed 31, 24, 27, 33, 23 and 30 in their previous six games against teams not named the Ravens and Steelers.

As far as Washington is concerned, they finally looked like an NFL caliber offense in Week 10 at Detroit, tying a season high with 27 points in the three-point loss. It was their most points since a 27-17 win against Philadelphia in Week 1. The 'over' last week for Washington was also its first since Week 4 against Baltimore.

Philadelphia at Cleveland: The Browns offense had been on fire this season, but as the weather has turned gloomy on the shores of Lake Erie, so has Cleveland's output. In a wintry mix and wind against the Raiders in Week 8, the Browns managed just six points, and last week against the Texans in the chilly rain with snow mixed in, they managed just 10 points and WON! The Browns had rolled up 35, 34 and 32 in their first three games at FirstEnergy Stadium when the weather was pleasant.

The Eagles are coming off a dismal 27-17 loss on the road against the hapless Giants, their third consecutive 'under' result. The Eagles have averaged just 20.7 PPG over the past three games, and allowed only 19.0 PPG during the span. The under is also 5-2 across the past seven for Philly.

Green Bay at Indianapolis: The Packers offense was rather stagnant last week at home in a 24-20 win, cashing the 'under' for the second time in the past three at Lambeau Field. This will be the third game for Green Bay against the AFC South, too, and the 'under is 2-0 in the previous two games against that division. In fact, the under is 4-2 in the past six for the Packers, too, which is surprising after the over hit in the first three games, with Green Bay going for 30 or more points in each of the first four outings.

The Indy defense has been stout all season, allowing just 19.7 PPG to rank fourth in the NFL, and they're first in the league with just 290.4 total yards per game allowed. Despite that defensive performance, the 'over' is 4-1 thanks to the offense coming alive. Indy has posted 34, 10, 41, 31 and 23 across the past five outings. At home, the 'under' is 3-1 for the Colts, allowing just 17.3 PPG.

Primetime Points

SNFMNF | TNF

-- The 'under' finished 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 10.

Thursday's game got off to a quick start, with the Indianapolis Colts doubling up the division rival Tennessee Titans by a 34-17 score, as the Colts continue their dominance in the series.

However, the weather kept the scores down in the Baltimore Ravens-New England Patriots (44) game for an 'under' result. On Monday, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (44) game also went well 'under', including three of the quarters featuring 10 or fewer points.
 
-- The 'under' has produced a 19-13 (59.4%) clip in 32 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders square off at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in a rematch of a Week 5 upset win by the silver and black. In that game, the Raiders won 40-32 as 11-point underdogs, easily hitting the 'over' (54.5).

The Chiefs offense has been on point all season, as to be expected, posting 26 or more points in seven straight games, and 23 or more points in all nine outings. However, the Chiefs haven't seen consecutive over results at any point this season, hitting the under if five of nine games. They hit the over last time out against the Panthers, 33-31, but the under is 6-1 in Kansas City's past seven road games, and 5-0 in the past five against teams with a winning overall road record. And despite that Week 5 over result, the under is still 22-9 in the previous 31 meetings in this series.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers lock horns Monday night at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa in the only game featuring a West Coast team heading to the Eastern Time Zone this week. In the most recent situation where a West Coast team traveled to the Eastern Time Zone, the Seahawks and Bills hooked up for 78 total points in an easy over, but the results have actually been rather mixed this season, as the previous two such situations in Week 7 resulted in a pair of unders.

The Rams are on a 6-0 'under' run, scoring just 23, 17, 24, 16, 30 and 17 during the run, and their defense has coughed up just 16, 28, 10, 24, 10 and 9. In two primetime games for the Rams this season, the 'under' has cashed in both contests, and their other previous trip to Florida, a 28-17 loss in Miami in Week 8, also resulted in an under.

For the Bucs, they rolled up a season-high 46 points at Carolina last week after a season-low three points at home in a primetime game against the visiting Saints in Week 9. The under has cashed in each of the past two home games for QB Tom Brady and the Bucs.

Fearless Predictions

I don't even want to talk about last week. Down was up, up was down, and I am in a tailspin with the picks the past few weeks. As such, I ended up in the red (-$430), and overall I am sitting at a dismal and inexcusable (-$635) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 11 with four more wagers to build that bankroll back up.

  • Best Over: Over 46.5 Cincinnati at Washington
  • Best Under: Under 46.5 Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
  • Best First-Half Total: Under 23.5 Philadelphia at Cleveland

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • Under 54 Philadelphia at Cleveland
  • Over 43.5 Atlanta at New Orleans
  • Under 55.5 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay (MNF)

Week 10 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 8-6 in Week 10, and the over has a 79-66-2 (54.5%) advantage to date. 

Week 10 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 3-4
NFC vs. NFC 1-1
AFC vs. AFC 1-2
AFC vs. NFC 1-1

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