Over-Under NFL Week 12 Total Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

23 minute read

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Handicapping Week 12 Totals

-- We're on to Week 12 of the NFL regular season, and unfortunately on this Thanksgiving weekend, COVID-19 has reared its ugly head again. Football fans looking for a nightcap of pumpkin pie, coffee or adult beverages with the Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers will have to change their plans.

-- Due to at least six player positive tests and four staff members for the Ravens dealing with the coronavirus, the game has been moved to Sunday. Many young bucks won't likely remember when there were just two Thanksgiving Day games, but for those who are traditionalists, 2020 is like the old days...well, except for the smattering of fans and masks all over the place. We get Detroit and Dallas. That's it. Old school.

-- As far as Sunday is concerned, there aren't a lot of major injuries heading into the weekend. However, remember the following:

-- Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (knee) is done for the season due to a torn ACL and other knee damage, so QB Ryan Finley will make his first start of the season.

-- Indianapolis Colts QB Philip Rivers (toe) is dealing with a toe injury, and he did not practice Wednesday. It sounds like he will be good to go for an important divisional game, but circle back around Friday for the official injury report before finalizing those wagers.

-- Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) banged his thumb on a helmet in practice Wednesday, and it comes on the heels of his benching last Sunday in Denver. He is expected to start, barring any setbacks.

-- Atlanta Falcons WRs Julio Jones (hamstring) and Calvin Ridley (foot) were each limited in practice Wednesday, and their health is very important to the potential result of their game.

Over-Under Line Moves

We've had a decent amount of movement for several totals in Week 12. Bettors have reacted early and often.

Down

• Seattle at Philadelphia (MNF): 53.5 to 50
• Miami at N.Y. Jets: 46.5 to 44.5
• Baltimore at Pittsburgh: 46 to 44.5
• San Francisco at L.A. Rams: 46.5 to 45
• Las Vegas at Atlanta: 55.5 to 54.5
• N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati: 44 to 43

Up

• Kansas City at Tampa Bay: 53 to 56.5
• Tennessee at Indianapolis: 49 to 51.5
• Arizona at New England: 48 to 50
• Carolina at Minnesota: 49 to 51
• Cleveland at Jacksonville: 47 to 48.5
• L.A. Chargers at Buffalo: 51.5 to 52.5

Over-Under Betting Trends

Listed below are the largest leans for Week 12 as of Thursday.

• Arizona at New England: Over 94%
• Carolina at Minnesota: Over 94%
• Cleveland at Jacksonville: Over 94%
• L.A. Chargers at Buffalo: Over 90%

• Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Under 96%
• Seattle at Philadelphia (MNF): Under 89%
• Miami at N.Y. Jets: Under 86%
• N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati: Under 70%
• Las Vegas at Atlanta: Under 65%

Division Over-Under Notes

The 'under' went 2-1 in the three NFL Divisional battles in Week 11, and the 'over/under' is now tied 27-26-1 (50.9%) overall this season. We also had one scheduled game in Week 12 on Thanksgiving pitting divisional teams, the Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys.

We now have five divisional matchups on tap for Sunday, including the rescheduled Baltimore-Pittsburgh game set for 1:15 p.m. ET.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The Dolphins are coming off a 20-13 loss at Denver, it's lowest scoring performance since Week 1 in New England back on Sept. 13. Prior to that Miami was rolling along with 23 or more points in eight straight outings from Week 2 through 10, including a 24-0 win over the Jets in the first meeting in Week 6 in Miami Gardens, Fla.

The Jets offense has actually been pretty functional lately, averaging 27.5 PPG over the past two games, hitting the 'over' in consecutive games for the first time since Week 1 and 2. The winless Jets had hit the 'under' in four in a row from Week 5 through 8 before the sudden hot streak.

The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in New Jersey, with the 'under' 4-1 in the past five meetings overall, including the first installment this season. Miami is also 5-1 in the past six as a favorite, and 5-2 in the past seven as a road fave.

Tennessee at Indianapolis:  The Titans hit the road for Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy, and the Colts have a concern with Rivers nursing a toe injury.

Tennessee has hit the 'over' in two straight, three of the past four and the 'over' is 7-1-1 in the past nine for Tennessee. The Titans have registered 24 or more points in seven of the past nine, and they have allowed 29.0 PPG across the past two, while coughing up 27 or more points in four of the past six. Tennessee's defense has coughed up 24, 34, 17, 31, 27 and 36 during the six-game span.

These teams played just two weeks ago in Nashville, with the Colts coming away with a 34-17 win on Thursday night football at Nissan Stadium as the 'over' (49.5) cashed. That might be a big reason bettors have pushed the opening total of 49 up to 51.5 as of Thursday morning.

The 'over' is 17-5-1 in Tennessee's past 23 overall, and 5-1-1 in their past seven against winning sides while going 4-0 in their past four divisional games. The 'over' is also 4-0 in Indy's past four divisional battles, and 6-2 in the past eight against the AFC.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Ravens limp into this one with losses in back-to-back games, with defense the issue. They have allowed 30 and 23 across the past two games, and an average of 23.8 PPG in the past five, with the 'over' going 3-2.

The Ravens have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL, posting 160.5 yards per game, but the pass attack has been marginal and they are averaging just 26.8 PPG to rank 12th.

Defensively, it's business as usual for the Ravens, as they're third in scoring defense with just 19.5 PPG.

The offense will have a different look for the Ravens, though. COVID-19 has reared its ugly head, and running backs Mark Ingram and rookie J.K. Dobbins have tested positive for the coronavirus and are on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

They're still expected to sit Sunday, so RBs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill will be counted upon to pick up the slack.

The last time these teams faced each other, Pittsburgh edged Baltimore 28-24 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 8 as the 'over' (44) connected. 

The unbeaten Steelers have watched the 'under' going 3-1-2 across their past six, and they have yielded just 10.7 PPG across the past three.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense has been on point, posting at least 24 points in all 10 games so far this season. They rank fourth in the NFL with 29.8 PPG, which is great for 'over' plays, but they're first in the league in scoring defense with just 17.4 PPG allowed.

San Francisco at L.A. Rams:  The 49ers and Rams also meet for the second time this season. The 49ers took care of the Rams 24-16 in the first meeting back on Oct. 18 as the 'under' (51) easily cashed.

San Francisco has had a power outage lately on offense, posting just 13 and 17 over the past two games. Defensively they have checked out a bit, allowing 27, 34 and 37, hitting the 'over' in two of the past three despite the lack of fireworks on the offensive side of the ball.

The Rams hit the 'over' in their 27-24 win Monday in Tampa, snapping a 6-0 'under' run, which included the first battle with the Niners in Week 6.

Chicago at Green Bay (SNF):  (see below)

Non-Conference Angles

Week 11 featured three non-conference matchups and the totals result in a 2-1 advantage to the under.

We have five more AFC vs. NFC battles on tap for the Week 12 schedule.

 N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati: The Giants have enjoyed their best offensive run of the season lately, going for 27, 23, 23, 21, 20 and a season-high 34 over the past six outings. However, the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five, as the defense has showed up, allowing just 17, 20, 25, 22 and 19 during the span. It helps that four of those five games were against divisional foes Philadelphia and Washington.

The Bengals will have Finley running the offense with Burrow out for this one. He looked completely lost last week taking over for Burrow in the third quarter, as the offense was scoreless in his quarter-plus of work.

Cincinnati had been humming along at home, posting 31, 34 and 33 over the past three, but of course that's with Burrow. They're a bit of an unknown going into this one with the G-Men.

Las Vegas at Atlanta: The Raiders came up just short in their bid to sweep the Chiefs, losing 35-31 on Sunday night in Vegas. The offense still showed up, and they have 31, 37 and 31 over the past three, all under a controlled environment. They haven't fared as well outside, but they needn't worry about that here.

The Raiders are back in the Eastern Time Zone for the fourth time this season. In previous trips to Carolina, New England and Cleveland they have scored 24, 20 and 16 while allowing 30, 36 and 6. The latter was a winter weather game in Cleveland.

The Falcons are coming off a season-low nine points in a loss at New Orleans. The defense has been a little better lately. After allowing 30 or more points in each of the first four outings, they have given up 24, 27, 17, 23, 23 and 23 over the past six. Maybe the move to interim head coach Raheem Morris was a pretty sharp move after all.

Arizona at New England: The Cardinals fell 28-21 in Seattle in a Thursday battle in Week 11, so they've had a few extra days to prepare for their cross-country trek. This will be Arizona's third game in the Eastern Time Zone this season, with the 'under' hitting in each of the previous two, a 31-21 loss at Carolina on a line of 52.5, and a 30-10 win at N.Y. Jets on a line of 48.5.

For the Patriots, they're coming off a 27-20 loss at Houston in Week 11, hitting the 'under' for the second straight outing. They have managed just 20, 23, 30, 21, 6, 12 and 10 over the past seven, as the offense has had a bit of a power outage. RB Rex Burkhead is nicked up, but the rest of the offense is fairly healthy.

New Orleans at Denver: The Saints were mocked before last week's game, as head coach Sean Payton elected to go with QB Taysom Hill for the start in place of the injured QB Drew Brees, rather than turning to QB Jameis Winston. Hill made Payton look like a genius, running for two touchdowns in the 24-9 win.

The 'under' has hit in three in a row for the Saints, as the defense has been on fire. They have yielded just 9, 13 and 3 during the three-game 'under' run.

The Saints will face their third AFC West opponent of the season. The 'over' is 2-0 in the previous two, a 34-24 loss at Las Vegas, and a 30-27 overtime win over the visiting L.A. Chargers in Week 5 on a Monday night. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four road games for New Orleans, and they scored 38 in the only 'under' away from home, and that's because the Bucs didn't show up in a 38-3 New Orleans win.

The Broncos have hit the 'under' in two in a row, averaging 16.0 PPG on offense while allowing 25.0 PPG. 
 
Kansas City at Tampa Bay: The Chiefs and Buccaneers lock horns in a marquee matchup, as QB Patrick Mahomes and QB Tom Brady meet at the Ray Jay.

The Chiefs offense has been a well-oiled machine lately, posting 35, 33, 35, 43, 26, 32, 26 and 34 over the past eight outings. You'd think that means a ton of 'over' results, but the 'under' is actually 5-4 across the past nine for Kansas City thanks to a solid defensive effort. However, that hasn't been the case in the past two, with K.C. coughing up 31 in each of the past two.

The Bucs offense has been a little up and down lately, posting 24, 46, 3, 25 and 45 over the past five. It's been hard figuring out who will be firing out of the tunnel lately. The defense has been pretty poor lately, too, coughing up 27, 23, 38 and 23 over the past four, with the 'over' going 4-1 in the past five for the Bucs.

Primetime Points

SNF | MNF | TNF

-- The 'over' finished 2-1 in the three primetime games in Week 11, but the 'under' has produced a 20-15 (57.1%) clip in 35 primetime games so far this season. 

Sunday Night Football Notes

The Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers meet for the first of two meetings in six weeks.

The 'over' has hit in three of the past four for the Packers, and they have posted 31, 24, 34, 22 and 35 over the past five outings. Defensively the Packers have allowed 20 or more points in five of the past six contests.

For Green Bay, the 'over' is 3-0 in three divisional games this season, averaging 36.3 PPG on offense while allowing 27.7 PPG.

As far as Chicago is concerned, they're dealing with some injuries under center. QB Nick Foles was knocked out in the fourth quarter before the bye against the Vikings on a Monday night game. QB Mitchell Trubisky is still recovering from a shoulder issue. So head coach Matt Nagy is mum on his starting plan. Really, no matter if it is Foles or Trubisky, that shouldn't move the needle much in terms of the point total. Now, if QB Tyler Bray were to get the starting nod, that would make a huge difference.

The Bears enter on a 6-1 'under' run, posting 13, 17, 23, 10, 23, 20 and 11 over the past seven. And defensively they have been solid, too, allowing just 19, 24, 26, 24, 16, 19 and 19.

Monday Night Football Notes

The Seattle Seahawks-Philadelphia Eagles game is actually a pretty interesting battle.

The Seahawks hit the 'under' last Thursday, and that's two straight, both inside the division, to go under. This is the fourth trip to the East Coast for the Seahawks, hitting the 'over' in two of the first three trips. They won 38-25 in Week 1 at Atlanta, won 31-23 in Miami as the 'under' (55) just came in, and they lost a shootout in Buffalo in Week 9, 44-34, as the 'over' easily cashed.

The defense for the Seahawks has been better lately, going for 22.0 PPG in the past two, which is nearly a touchdown better than their season average allowed of 28.7 PPG.

The Eagles have managed just 17 points in each of the past two games, both road outings at Cleveland and at N.Y. Giants. The Eagles are on a 4-0 'under' run, averaging 19.8 PPG while allowing 19.8 PPG. 

Fearless Predictions

Last week was another disaster. I would be super thankful if my Thanksgiving wagers, and Week 12 go much better. Last week was another losing week at (-$210), and overall I am an awful (-$845) for the season. We'll look for a plus-number in Week 12 with four more wagers to build that bankroll back up.

• Best Over: Over 51.5 Tennessee at Indianapolis
• Best Under: Under 51 Carolina at Minnesota
• Best First-Half Total: Under 21.5 N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati

• Under 50 N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati
• Over 45.5 L.A. Chargers at Buffalo
• Under 56.5 Arizona at New England

Week 11 & Overall Betting Results

Depending when and where you placed your bets, the ‘under’ went 8-6 in Week 11, and the over has a 85-74-2 (53.4%) advantage to date. 

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