Vegas ready for Super Bowl 55
It’s a dreamy Super Bowl 55 matchup featuring Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes, a matchup that offers a little bit of intrigue for everyone to share opinions which makes for a tremendous betting event.
Moms, Grandma’s, the Priest, and the mailman will all have thoughts on who will win.
Super Bowl Betting Odds | Super Bowl Betting History
We have two weeks to wait for the game, but the talking of who will win began Sunday immediately after Brady beat the Packers at Lambeau Field to make his 10th Super Bowl.
The Buccaneers were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and they’ll be +3.5 against the defending champion Chiefs as well.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3.5 with a total of 57.5 with 45 minutes left in the Chiefs eventual 38-24 win over the Bills.
Circa Sports opened the Chiefs -3 -120 as did William Hill books and both were quickly moved to -3.5. The South Point and MGM both opened -3.5.
“Mahomes against Brady is going to be huge,” Nevada BetMGM’s sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said.
“Handle has been up all season despite less occupancy so I don’t see why the trend wouldn’t continue for the biggest game of the season. It’s been weird because six-figure wagers are a common thing now. I used to remember them all because that size of a bet was unique, but now that it’s a regular thing, I lose count of how many we took some weeks.”
Mobile wagering with lots of automated options has helped most books achieve bigger numbers this NFL season.
It’s easier than ever for people to bet and bet again in 2021 staying home during a pandemic, so why not set a record to commemorate it.
The Nevada record for Super Bowl sportsbook handle was $158 million in 2018 when the Eagles beat the Patriots and the highest win was $19.67 million in 2014 when the Seahawks thrashed the Broncos, 43-8.
I can tell you this, the soft spot for your Grandma will be 43-year-old Tom Brady, who just played in his 14th conference championship game.
He comes off seven straight wins while scoring 30-points or more in their last six.
He won all three playoff games on the road. They’ve got some serious momentum heading into Tampa.
Yes, the game is on their home field, the first team ever to play a Super Bowl on their home field.
Chiefs get early action
Early money showed up on the Chiefs at -3 -120, but that was more about the number. Or was it?
BetMGM’s Jason Scott said they took $50K on the Chiefs -3.5 and $150K on the Chiefs money-line at -180 shortly after the line was posted.
Or maybe it’s just the “what we saw last” type of betting.
The Chiefs are back covering after going 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games, one of which was a Week 12 game at Tampa Bay they won 27-24 but didn’t cover -3.5. The Bucs have not lost since that meeting.
Super Bowl 55 Adjustments Coming?
Where will the line go, up or down?
William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich, who is booking his 27th or 29th Super Bowl, says it will stay 3 or 3.5 the entire next two weeks.
Station Casinos sportsbook director is hoping for something different.
“I was praying for two-way action at 3.5 but I expect to see Bucs money take it down,” Jason McCormick said.
And then how long do you stay at 3, the most key number in the NFL, before jumping down to 2.5? The books don’t want to push on 3, but they also don’t want to get middle by going to 2.5.
A Black Sunday happened after the 1978 season with the Steelers and Cowboys in Super Bowl 13. Only a handful of books around in Nevada back then with low limits compared to now. A Black Sunday in 2021 would be devastating.
We’ll see how it all unfolds the next two weeks and I’ll report what I see and thoughts on where the number may be going.
My advice shortly after the number was posted Sunday is to take the Bucs +3.5 and money-line sooner than later if you like them and if you like the Chiefs wait for -2.5.
One thing I’ve noticed in recent Super Bowls is that public opinion completely flips sides from what was bet the first two or three days.
Sharp money doesn’t matter as much as the regular season and gets lost in all the public money piling up.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 16 years.
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