Betting Recap – Week 3

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Chargers +7 (ML +260) at Chiefs, 30-24
• Packers +3 (ML +160) at 49ers, 30-28
• Saints +3 (ML +130) at Patriots, 28-13
• Bengals +3 (ML +125) at Steelers, 24-10

The largest favorites to cover

• Broncos (-10) vs. Jets, 26-0
• Cardinals (-8) at Jaguars, 31-19
• Panthers (-8) at Texans, 24-9
• Browns (-7.5) vs. Bears, 26-6
• Bills (-7) vs. Washington, 43-21

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

Money line bettors of the Detroit Lions (+7.5, ML +320) didn't care about NFL history. They wanted money. And they were oh-so-close.

The Lions led 17-16 with seven seconds left in the game. On 4th and 19, it appeared the Lions were on their way to the first victory of the season. QB Lamar Jackson tossed up a 36-yard prayer to WR Sammy Watkins, who kept hope alive. Jackson then stopped the clock on a spike, even though the telecast appeared to show the play clock expired. That gave PK Justin Tucker a chance at a 67-yard field goal attempt at the buzzer, a try which would make NFL history.

Tucker took a little jump-step on the attempt, gave it a ride and it hit the crossbar and bounced over for the winner, and NFL history, although perhaps it shouldn't have been. Money line bettors of the Lions were left shaking their heads at the terrible luck.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

UNDER bettors in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Los Angeles Rams (55.5) gave were feeling very good after a scoreless first quarter. The books expected fireworks, and they eventually came in the second and third quarters, with L.A. taking a 31-17 lead after 45 minutes. Suddenly, a sure UNDER bet was now looking like the OVER everyone thought this game would be.

However, the offensive grinded to a halt once again, as we had only a PK Matt Gay field goal from 26 yards out with 8:14 to go in regulation, as the Rams were doubling up the defending champs, 34-17. That's the way things past the two-minute warning, although the Bucs weren't giving up. Much to the dismay of UNDER bettors, QB Tom Brady was under center still, and he wasn't quitting. He hit RB Giovani Bernard for a 7-yard touchdown with 1:10 to go, flipping the UNDER to an OVER result.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board in Week 3 wasn't low enough. The New York Jets-Denver Broncos (41.5) was expected to be a defensive battle, and the Jets certainly cooperated. They scored as many points and you and I, while the Broncos were good for 26 points in the shutout victory.

The second-lowest total was the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (42) game, and we had an unexpected result in that one. The Bengals picked up the road victory, winning 24-10. No one expected the Steelers to manage just 10 points at home against the lowly Bengals, but that's exactly what happened. Next lowest was the Thursday game between the Carolina Panthers-Houston Texans (43), then the New Orleans Saints-New England Patriots (43.5) and Chicago Bears-Cleveland Browns (44.5). All of those games hit the UNDER, too, in what was mostly a low-scoring week.

As far as the highest total, that honor belonged to the Buccaneers-Rams game, and we touched on how that one ended above. The Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs (55) gave was the second-highest total, and that just went UNDER despite a scoreless first quarter. In fact, some shops opened that one at 53.5, so OVER bettors might have hit this bet if they bet it early.

As far as primetime games, the Panthers-Texans gave was the first UNDER of the season for games under the lights. The Sunday night affair between the Green Bay Packers-San Francisco 49ers (51) was another thriller, and a combined 27 points in the fourth quarter helped the OVER connect. That's now 7-1 (87.5%) through eight primetime games, with the Monday night battle between the Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys (52) still pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Lions (0-3) and Bears (1-2) will be looking to avoid the basement in the NFC North Division. The Lions hit the road for the second time this season, and they're hoping for better results. Detroit fell 35-17 at Green Bay in Week 2 on Monday night, failing to cover as the OVER hit.

The Lions are 4-9 ATS in the past 13 games on the road, and 3-7 in the past 10 as a road 'dog, too. For the Bears, they are 1-7 ATS in the past eight as a home favorite, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division, too.

As far as the total, the OVER is 5-1 in the past six inside the division for the Lions, while the OVER is a perfect 4-0 in the past four division games for the Bears. In addition, Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in the past five trips to Chicago. 

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

It's a battle of unbeatens for the top spot in the NFC West, as the Cardinals (3-0) travel to meet the Rams (3-0). Arizona is 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road, while hitting the UNDER in each away game. For the Rams, they're a perfect 2-0 ATS in two home games, so something's gotta give there, too. The OVER has connected in each of the three games for the Rams so far.

The Cards have a dismal 0-4 ATS mark in the past four inside the division, while going 0-5 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five at home, while going 7-2 ATS in the past nine against winning teams. L.A. is also 10-4-1 ATS in the past inside the division.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Arizona's past 16 on the road, and 5-0 in the past five as a road underdog. While it's all OVER all the time for the Rams so far, the UNDER is 13-3 in their past 16 as a home favorite, and 5-2 in the past seven inside the division.

Arizona has had a tough time in L.A., too, going 0-3-1 ATS in the four in SoCal, and 0-7-1 ATs in the past eight meetings overall.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks have lost and failed to cover each of the past two outigs, while the 49ers are coming off a disappointing loss at home to the Packers on Sunday night.

Seattle failed to cover on the road in Minnesota, and they're now 1-7 ATS in the past eight on the road. Seattle has covered just three of the past 10 inside the NFC West, too. San Francisco has covered four of the past five inside the division, although they are just 5-21-1 ATS in the past 27 as a home favorite. 

The UNDER is 9-3 in the past 12 for the Seahawks, while going 5-1 in the past six on the road. The 49ers have hit the OVER in four of the past five at home, while the OVER is 5-2 in the past seven as a favorite.

In this series, the Seahawks are an impressive 13-5-1 ATS in the past 19 meetings, while the OVER is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Santa Clara, while the OVER is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Raiders (3-0) and Chargers (2-1) meet in a marquee game in the AFC West. Who would've predicted that a season ago? Or even three weeks ago?

There's something about Monday that agrees with the silver and black. They topped the Ravens in Week 1 in a stellar MNF game, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four appearances on Monday night. Vegas is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division.

The Bolts have covered four straight inside the division, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven games overall.

Meanwhile, the OVER is 5-1 in the past six inside the division for the Raiders, while going 6-2 in the past eight on the road. The OVER is 5-1 in the past six for the Chargers against winning teams, and 4-1 in the past five inside the division.

The underdog is 18-6 in the past 24 meetings in this series, with the UNDER 16-4-1 in the past 21 meetings in Southern California.

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