Dolphins vs. Jaguars Week 3 Predictions, Odds, Preview

Dolphins-Jaguars Video Picks

• September 24, 2020
• By Matt Blunt
• VegasInsider.com

Another week of NFL action has now arrived, and with this being the only major sport in town in the about a month or so, it won't be long before everyone in the market wonders where the first half of the season went.

It's been an entertaining first two weeks so far with holding calls down and points across the league up. Those are two talking points this week and while I'm never sure on the former, the latter is something to consider in your handicapping.

When stats like how the league wide scoring average is up over 50 points through two weeks get spoken everywhere, it might be time to lean towards flipping the script.

Yes, scoring is well up through these first two weeks, but in the market that means that early numbers where 'over' plays may make a lot of sense are going to get bet up early, and that's on top of the potential for numbers already being shaded a little higher as well. You've really got to like an 'over' for a game if you haven't pulled the trigger on it yet, as numbers are only going to climb as a generalization.

It will be interesting to see if Week 3 brings a few more 'under' tickets to the window, as something's going to give eventually. Maybe it starts with the Thursday nighter down in Jacksonville?

Betting Resources

• Week 3 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: TIAA Bank Field
• Location: Jacksonville, FL
• Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Dolphins-Jaguars Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: Jacksonville -3
• Money-Line: Jacksonville -160, Miami +140
• Total: 47.5

Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to lift Miami to its first win of the season at Jacksonville on Thursday. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Miami

• Overall: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Jacksonville

• Overall: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

Popularized numbers like the league wide scoring average being well up this year is going to have more on an influence on the market from start to finish these next couple of weeks.

Numbers are going to open higher in some instances, others are going to move in a hurry in others. But the later in the week you wait to take these 'overs' is when you are going to be left with the worst of it a lot of the time. This TNF game is case in point.

This total opened up at 44 nearly everywhere, and within 24 hours it was already at 46. There are many examples of the same thing occurring in other games every week right now, and it makes timing your bets a bit easier. If you know you are going to love an 'over' in a game, you'd better look at it early.

A four-point jump from open is something that's got to be respected, but I do believe it's also an easy spot to go the contrarian route and look for scoring to come down. This is still a TNF game on short week for these guys, and yes, Burrow and Mayfield lit it up in this spot a week ago, but I just don't see quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and RyanFitzpatrick putting up a similar performance.

These guys love to dink and dunk the ball down the field and then cough up the ball late in drives. Fitzpatrick is known for trying to force things in when the field shrinks down, and Jacksonville has shown that they'll be very shrewd in picking their spots in when to take shots.

Furthermore, how many sloppy TNF games have we seen in the past where guys/teams just don't have it and it's a 21-10, sloppy, exhibition-like game? There are at least a handful of them on Thursday's every year. Do you really want to trust these two teams of all teams to avoid something like that happening? In by far the worst of the number now?

I sure don't, and in fact I do believe it's an easy look at the 'under' now for this game. I'm not sure Miami's offense is going to be all that good away from home - something that's been the case for them in recent years – and I'm not sure Jacksonville's defense shouldn't be rated slightly higher at home.

48 is a big number for two teams that came into the season as likely lottery candidates, playing in a notorious 'under' spot on TNF, and the perception of it being an easier 'over' in bumping the number up so quick only has me looking at the 'under.'

Head-to-Head History

• Dec. 23, 2018 - Jacksonville 17 at Miami 7, Jaguars -3, Under 39.5
• Sep. 20, 2015 - Jacksonville 23 vs. Miami 20, Jaguars +6, Over 42
• Oct. 26, 2014 - Miami 27 vs. Jacksonville 13, Dolphins -7, Under 42

Dolphins vs. Jaguars
Handicapping the Side

The side saw a big early move too as a line basically at pick'em got to Jacksonville -3 in a hurry. There has been a lot to like about the Jags from their 2-0 ATS record, but they were also catching a full TD in those games.

Catching points is when the Jaguars want to be really strongly considered in my view, because who knows how consistent this young team really is right yet. Isn't this one of those spots where teams like the Jags that were projected to be near the basement this year kind of come back down to earth?

Again, with the best of the number already gone, easy to pass on the Jags side.

Doesn't mean I want any part of Miami though, as they are 1-1 ATS this season with both games essentially being a coin flip on whether or not they sneak in the backdoor.

Week 1 they had their chance with 3rd and 6 from the Patriots 10 in the final two minutes before Fitzpatrick threw an INT. Week 2 saw them get through the backdoor – after giving it up just prior – in the final minute of the game to cover the number against the Bills, but who wants any part of that.

Catching just three points as an underdog is the smallest potential backdoor the Dolphins will be working with this year, and if their best games are coming down to coin flip plays late, how could you confidently make a case for them here either.

I guess the notion that the number's the best it's ever been on Miami now at +3 will look slightly appealing to some, but I want nothing to do with sweating out a garbage time drive with the Dolphins late. Nor do I want to bet into the worst of the number with a Jags team that may not be all their2-0 ATS mark projects them out to be.

Easy pass on the side from both perspectives. But Jags probably win.

Key Injuries

Miami

• S Clayton Fejedelem: Pec - Doubtful
• CB Byron Jones: Groin, Achilles - Out

Jacksonville

• WR DJ Chark Jr: Chest - Questionable
• K Josh Lambo: Hip - Out
• C Brandon Linder: Knee - Out

Dolphins vs. Jaguars - Predictions

• Score Prediction: Jacksonville 24 Miami 17
• Best Bet: Under 48