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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:49 PM

Chiefs vs. Ravens Week 3 Predictions, Odds, Preview



  • September 27, 2020
  • By Matt Blunt
  • VegasInsider.com

The AFC Championship game that was “supposed” to happen in the 2019-20 playoffs gets to be played nine months later on MNF, as the defending champs from Kansas City travel to Baltimore.

Remember, it was the Ravens who were the #1 seed in the AFC last year and slipped up vs Tennessee in the Divisional round to not give the world the Baltimore/KC AFC Championship everyone was expecting.

There is a lot less at stake in this actual meeting then there would have been had last year's playoffs played out differently for Baltimore, but that may actually be a good thing for Chiefs backers here.

Three of the last four times the defending champs had a Conference Championship rematch game in the regular season the following year they lost those games outright. Not specifically applicable here, but both organizations know that they'll have to likely overcome this particular foe to get where they ultimately want to go this season, and it would not be shocking to see a big time playoff feel to this game as well.

Betting Resources

Chiefs-Ravens Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Ravens -3.5
  • Money-Line: Ravens -185, Chiefs +165
  • Total: 54

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Kansas City

  • Overall: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Baltimore

  • Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

If we were to continue down the path of treating this game to something of a fictional AFC Championship rematch game, then it's interesting to note that in those four games that the reigning champs returned to face the team they beat to get there, the 'under' has cashed every single time.

It's not going to specifically apply this year with the Chiefs and Titans not on the dance card together, but treating it in a similar light down this brainstorming path does make quite a bit of sense.

Because when you really think about the game, sure, both QB's are going to get all the accolades and deservedly so, but because of their skills, both teams should essentially come in with a similar mindset from a strategical point of view; limit the time said opposing quarterback is on the field and can hurt them.

That means run the ball, shorten the game, and be comfortable with it because in the end, both sides are plenty comfortable with asking their guy to make that quick scoring drive late if need be. The talent's definitely there for either side to pull it off.

Both defenses are going to want to make sure they keep everything in front of them as much as possible, and that leaves easy running lanes open as well as plenty of space in the flat to work the short game. Again, two things both offenses are plenty comfortable in executing because of the belief it will eventually open up things deep.

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With all the talk being about the explosiveness of these offenses, the stronger perception is already going to be siding with the 'over' in this game and there might not be a number that's too high for some just looking to get action down on a high profile MNF game.

The contrarian angle here was always going to be the 'under', and when thought about on top of all those other potential terms laid out in regards to more run plays, leading to longer drives etc, I do believe the 'under' is the only way to look here.

Yes it's the scarier play to pull the trigger on in a contest between the last two league MVP's, but all of that is already part of the number that currently sits out there in the market. But the Ravens defense has held both of their opponents to 16 or fewer points in two games this year, and KC's defensive unit hasn't allowed more than 20 points against in two games. Points easily lost or cast aside in the eye popping headlines constantly created about the QB's.

KC's offense has recently shown that getting into high gear away from home can be tough for them with a 0-4 O/U run going on the road, and the Ravens are on a 1-5 O/U run themselves as a home favorite.

It's a play that's never going to be popular, but that doesn't mean it can't hit. It's not like a 27-24 game between these two can't live up to all the hype it's getting right?

Head-to-Head History

  • Sept. 22, 2019 - Kansas City 33 vs. Baltimore 28, Chiefs -4.5, Over 52.5
  • Dec. 9, 2018 - (OT) Kansas City 27 vs. Baltimore 24, Chiefs -6.5, Over 48.5

Chiefs vs. Ravens
Handicapping the Side

If this game does indeed live up to half the expectation that's getting thrust upon it, it's going to be a pretty easy game to pass on action on the side and simply take in as a football fan.

There is very little that separates these two teams on paper, and when they meet you hope that they both execute at a high level and let the chips fall where they may.

If forced to make a selection here, I'd end up on the Chiefs only because the line dictates you should with that hook at +3.5, a number that's been settled in all week.

Asking yourself why it hasn't come back down to +3 if most are going to take the hook from a simple numbers standpoint brings even more legitimate concerns as to why staying off the side is quite easy to do.

Taking that hook at +3.5, but when Baltimore appears plenty attractive from a money line angle, there is just little reason to force things.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

  • LB Dorian O'Daniel: Knee, Ankle - Questionable
  • CB Charvarius Ward: Hand - Questionable
  • WR Sammy Watkins: Concussion, Neck - Questionable

Baltimore

  • G D.J. Fluker: Shoulder - Questionable
  • S Anthony Levine Sr.: Abdomen - Questionable
  • DT Justin Madubuike: Knee - Questionable
  • WR Chris Moore: Finger - Questionable
  • CB Tavon Young: Knee - Out

Chiefs vs. Ravens - Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Ravens 27 Chiefs 24
  • Best Bet: Under 54


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