Chargers vs. Saints Week 5 Predictions, Odds, Preview

• October 12, 2020
• By Matt Blunt
• VegasInsider.com

For the second consecutive week, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves out on the road in NFC South country, and if they've got another chance to knock off a future HOF quarterback again, hopefully, they'll know how to finish this time.

The Chargers had QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers down big late in that 1st half last week before blunders started the spiral of momentum against them, and Tampa took full advantage in the final 30 minutes. Mistakes like that can happen for younger teams like the Chargers are, but the Saints have not looked invincible by any means this year.

Yet, the problem for Chargers fans/backers has to be that any time we get Drew Brees on MNF these days, he's usually out there breaking some long-standing QB record. I'm not sure there are any within reach this time, but the Saints have been a reliable team to back in recent MNF games as some memorable moments for Brees are behind them.

Betting Resources

• Week 5 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
• Location: New Orleans, LA
• Date: Monday, Oct. 12, 2020
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert makes his fourth straight start as the Chargers take on the Saints. (AP)

Chargers-Saints Betting Odds

Line Movements

But Saints fans have to fear that all of the great moments Brees has had in his career are currently behind him, as there are serious questions about his ability to be that guy to lead this team on another deep run this year.

New Orleans was hoping to have wide receiver Michael Thomas available to help give Brees a more reliable option to work with on offense but the below "Tweet" from Adam Schefter sums up the priorities for the All-Pro.

Saints’ WR Michael Thomas had an altercation with a teammate at practice this weekend, per league sources. Saints now disciplining Thomas by sitting him Monday night, when he was being listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 11, 2020

With or without Thomas, the Saints still have trouble stopping teams too – Saints give up an average of 30.8 points per game – and if Brees is amid a severe decline, how long can you expect to have him keep winning games 35-30?

New Orleans might not have to worry so much with this specific opponent about those deficiencies, but they'll still be around regardless. They are a big part of the question this week regarding whether the Saints will cover this number.

Odds Subject to Change

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

L.A. Chargers

• Overall: 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
• Road: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U
• Offense PPG: 20.8 (Rank 27)
• Defense PPG: 23.8 (Rank 11)

New Orleans

• Overall: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U
• Home: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
• Offense PPG: 30.8 (Rank T-5)
• Defense PPG: 30.8 (Rank 25)

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

This game is not one I was particularly fond of for the entire week this week as there are cases to be made each way. In terms of the total, Saints at home in prime time appearances have lit up the scoreboard in the past, and we just saw another 40+, the future HOF QB put up 5 TD's on this Chargers defense last week. But Brady's been trying to re-teach himself to look deep then short this year in his progressions when all Brees tends to look and throw short.

Alternatively, can you trust this Chargers offense to put up 30+ point efforts in consecutive weeks after failing to score more than 20 in their first three games of the season? Yes, the Saints defense is bad and can help LA along in that regard, but it's still rookie QB Justin Herbert's second career road start, in a tough travel spot (whether they went to and from LA between games or not), and off a game where they coughed up what would have been a huge win.

The Chargers being completely flat and/or overmatched early is also a possible outcome to thing about here, and asking them to pull their weight for a total in the ‘50s may be a bit much.

I'm more inclined to think that the Chargers offense is likely to come back down to earth a bit, as well as the Saints defense at least “looking” better against an inferior opponent. I do also think this Chargers defense is more likely to bounce back off that rough outing and look more like the team that held the Bengals, Chiefs, and Panthers to 12, 23, and 21 points, respectively, as they did in their first three games.

I believe that Brees has hit that career cliff where talent tends to nosedive, so asking him to keep putting up 30 points a game on long, dink-and-dunk drives just isn't going to keep working out. New Orleans is 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF, but they are also on a 4-11 O/U run against a losing team. It's the last run that I side with for this one.

Head-to-Head History

• Oct. 2, 2016 - New Orleans 35 at L.A. Chargers 34, Saints +3.5, Over 54
• Oct. 7, 2012 - New Orleans 31 vs. San Diego 24, Saints -3.5, Over 52.5

Chargers vs. Saints
Handicapping the Side

Believing the end is here for Brees also means that I want no part of him laying anything that much more than a FG based on the matchup, and this is one of those games where it's between fading the Saints or passing on the side.

Even if I'm completely wrong about Brees being smack dab right in the middle of the end, and he still goes out there and lights things up, New Orleans still has a defense that gives up 30 points per game. Even if they do look better, you're always asking them to potentially keep the back door shut as well from an ATS standpoint late in the game. Even if they declared they wanted too, I'm not sure the Saints defense could stop a garbage time TD drive against more times than not, and that's a situation that bettors still may have to sweat out after watching Brees and the Saints offense be at their best.

Anything less than that (far more likely), from Brees and company, and this spread is far too lofty a price on the Saints for me even to consider.

Yet, I'm not thrilled to be having the Chargers in this game either, as back-to-back non-conference road spots tend to be hard for a young team to come away with back-to-back ATS wins. And if it's the Chargers who have a dud of a game, even an average Brees and company win this game by double digits comfortably.

The Chargers are on a 33-15-4 ATS run as an organization when listed as a road underdog, but they are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four MNF appearances. Again, cases to be made for both sides, and it's just safer to pass.

Key Injuries

L.A. Chargers

• QB Tyrod Taylor: Lung - Questionable
• WR Mike Williams: Hamstring - Questionable
• G Trai Turner: Groin - Questionable
• T Storm Norton: Knee - Questionable
• T Bryan Bulaga: Back - Questionable
• RB Austin Ekeler: Hamstring - Out

New Orleans

• WR Michael Thomas: Discipline - Out
• T Ryan Ramczyk: Concussion - Questionable
• T Andrus Peat: Ankle - Questionable
• CB Marshon Lattimore: Hamstring - Questionable
• CB Janoris Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
• DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
• TE Jared Cook: Ankle - Questionable
• LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Out

Chargers vs. Saints - Predictions

• Score Prediction: New Orleans wins 27-20
• Best Bet: Under 50