Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:49 AM
Chiefs vs. Bills Week 6 Predictions, Odds, Preview
- October 19, 2020
- By Matt Blunt
Through no fault of their own, the Buffalo Bills are on that rare Tuesday-Monday turn around this week as they look for a much better showing then they had in Tennessee last week.
But even with the disjointed nature of their schedule the past few weeks, the Bills still get a Tuesday-Monday break between games here, compared to the Sunday-Thursday break they would have had had this game gone on normally as scheduled on a Thursday night.
Can't complain too much about that when the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town.
- Week 6 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
- Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
- Venue: Bills Stadium
- Location: Orchard Park, NY
- Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
- Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX/NFL
- Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Odds
Odds Subject to Change
2020 Betting Stats
(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)
- Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
- Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
- Offense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 9)
- Defense PPG: 22.0 (Rank 7)
- Offense YPG: 407.2 (Rank 3)
- Defense YPG: 382.8 (Rank 20)
- Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-0-1 O/U
- Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
- Offense PPG: 27.8 (Rank 12)
- Defense PPG: 28.4 (Rank 22)
- Offense YPG: 401.8 (Rank 5)
- Defense YPG: 371.8 (Rank 17)
Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total
The total is quite interesting here as both teams are known for their offensive play this year, but it's both defenses that are coming off efforts that saw opponents hang 40 or more on them.
The Chiefs defense is to blame for most of those points, but you can't hang the Bills defense completely out to dry after that effort in Tennessee given how many short fields they had to deal with. But Buffalo opponents have still averaged 31.25 points per game over their last four, as suspect defense in Buffalo is starting to look like it might be a trend.
Yet, I think the best way to look at this game is through the eyes of both defenses wanting to rebound after rough outings, and both offenses looking to take much better care of the ball. Kansas City isn't going to want to bleed their defense to death with them losing the time of possession battle in a big way again, and sustaining, and lengthening drives when need be may be an offensive philosophy we see from KC a bit more here.
They know they can connect on the "Home Run" play if need be, we as bettors know that, but that's three out of four games the Chiefs have been outgained in total yardage now, largely because they are getting smokes in the time of possession battle.
Tennessee may not have had the greatest success running on Buffalo, but the weakness of this suspect defense is in stopping the run and I think the Bills went overboard in trying to protect it against the Titans. They'll loosen up a bit there and if KC commits to the running game early (in an effort to give rest to their defense), they'll find enough success to shorten a game with a total of 57.5 rather quickly.
At the same time, Buffalo's going to want to run the ball and control time of possession as much as they can, because that's what everyone seems to believe is the best path to success against the Chiefs, and rightfully so. KC's defense has seen what works in slowing down quarterback Josh Allen from the zone looks Tennessee gave them on Tuesday, and that means that running lanes and controlling the time of possession battle will be there for the taking for Buffalo's offense.
Expecting both teams to run the ball more (for their varying reasons), along with these defenses tightening things up after rough outings in a measuring stick type game – at least for the Bills – the 'under' is the way to look here in my opinion.
Buffalo can never feel comfortable about their chances of pulling off the upset win in a shootout-type contest, and it's still a road game for the Chiefs who know the recipe for winning on the road is to run the ball and play good defense. Scoring may be up this year, but this Chiefs team still loves to play that conservative style on the road as they are 0-5 O/U in their last five road games, part of which includes a 1-4 O/U run when listed as a road favorite.
If Buffalo's going to pull off the upset here, they will need to likely keep KC to 24 or less and even then it will be close. Buffalo's yet to cash an 'under' ticket this year against the closing line, and that's probably not a true reflection of where this team's O/U record will end up by the end of the year.
But the belief this Bills defense will continue to trend in the wrong direction with Mahomes and company in town isn't a hard one to get behind, and the number's probably a shade higher then it should be as is usually the case with Chiefs games in the big picture as well.
All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1
- Nov. 26, 2017 - Buffalo 16 at Kansas City 10, Bills +8.5, Under 47
- Nov. 29, 2015 - Kansas City 30 vs. Buffalo 22, Chiefs -4, Over 40.5
Chiefs vs. Bills
Handicapping the Side
Along the lines of thinking that both defenses will rebound to a degree after rough outings helps an 'under' look, it's a perspective that makes it tough to hone in on a side.
The fact that both sides are coming off losses, it makes a strong bounce back spot argument in both directions, and a Chiefs win that stays inside this current spread would befit this potential playoff preview both franchises hope it may be.
In the end, taking those points at home with a Buffalo team that's looking to prove way more here is rather tempting, but questions remain about Buffalo even being a team ready to take that next step. Much easier to sit on the sidelines in that regard here and see how it plays out.
KC might be so frustrated they lost last week – a division game no less – that they look to hang it on someone, and it just so happens to be the Bills and their defense that's giving up 31+/game that's up next.
I do think it is more likely to be close throughout, but the number you get on the spread here as a great chance to actually matter and it's just sticking with the total selection for me.
Updates Released on Sunday
- OL Mitchell Schwartz: Back - Questionable
- RB Le'Veon Bell: Acquired - Out
- FB Anthony Sherman: COVID-19 - Out
- WR Sammy Watkins: Hamstring - Out
- G Kelechi Osemele: Knee - Out
- WR John Brown: Knee - Probable
- RB Zack Moss: Toe - Probable
- CB Tre'Davious White: Back - Questionable
- G Quinton Spain: Foot - Questionable
- LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
- TE Dawson Knox: Calf - Out
- LB Del'Shawn Phillips: Quad - Out
Chiefs vs. Bills - Predictions
- Score Prediction: Kansas City 28 Buffalo 24
- Best Bet: Under 57.5
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