Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:48 AM
Patriots vs. Jets Week 9 Predictions, Odds, Preview
- November 8, 2020
- By Matt Blunt
It's not the NFC East involved on Monday Night Football this week, but it might as well be with the winless New York Jets hosting Week 9's final game, as the Jets would fit right in with that division this year.
New England hasn't been much better themselves in 2020 in the post-Brady era, as Cam Newton's fumble inside the 15 late last week vs Buffalo all but killed any realistic hope the Patriots had of winning another AFC East crown this year.
Four straight losses for the Patriots coming into this one, and yet, because they are sharing the field with the Jets, New England is still close to a doulbe-digit favorite for this game.
Should you be willing to lay that number, or will the Jets flirt with that first win of their 2020 campaign?
- Week 9 Matchup: AFC East
- Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
- Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
- Date: Monday, Nov. 9, 2020
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All
Patriots-Jets Betting Odds
Odds Subject to Change
2020 Betting Stats
(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)
- Overall: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U
- Road: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U
- Offense PPG: 19.4 (Rank 29)
- Defense PPG: 23.9 (Rank 12)
- Offense YPG: 351.7 (Rank 21)
- Defense YPG: 357.3 (Rank 14)
- Overall: 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS, 3-5 O/U
- Home: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U
- Offense PPG: 11.8 (Rank 32)
- Defense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 28)
- Offense YPG: 259.0 (Rank 32)
- Defense YPG: 398.9 (Rank 26)
Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total
There isn't much need to fully outline just how bad the Jets have been this year, especially when the fact that they haven't scored more than 10 points in any one of their most recent four games is really all you need to know in that regard.
Sure, New England's four-game losing streak has been tough to take for Pats fans that only know winning, but this Jets team putting up 10 or fewer points for a month just looks that much worse. Half of those games came against AFC East rivals (Buffalo, Miami) as well. Overall, New York has had just one game of their eight this year where they've scored more than 17 points to begin with.
Interestingly enough though, that outlier game offensively for New York came in their only other appearance in prime time, as a 37-28 loss to Denver on TNF became the offensive shootout nobody ever expected to see. With MNF games this year averaging 46.33 points overall this year, a total in the low 40's still feels quite low, even if the offensively challenged Jets are involved.
Flip it around to the Jets defense, and you'll see that in three of their four home games this season the Jets have allowed 30+ points against, and if that tendency holds true here, New York won't need much more than their usual 10 points/game to do enough to help 'over' bettors cash a ticket.
Remember, it's not like the Patriots defense is playing at full strength these days either, as they've allowed at least 24 points in all three of their road games this season, and Buffalo left a few points on the table last week in hitting that 24-point mark.
So there is definitely a path to backing the 'over' in this game, and it is through that lens that I'm investing in this game. New York is on a 11-4 O/U run against another team with a losing record, and the fact that betting percentage numbers currently up at VegasInsider.com currently show healthy support (70%+) of action on the 'under' but this total has climbed a full point since opening at 41 is a move and scenario I can get behind.
- Oct. 21, 2019 - New England 33 at N.Y. Jets 0, Patriots -9.5, Under 43
- Sep. 22, 2019 - New England 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 14, Jets +20.5, Over 43
- Dec. 30, 2018 - New England 38 vs. N.Y. Jets 3, Patriots -14.5, Under 46.5
- Nov. 25, 2018 - New England 27 at N.Y. Jets 13, Patriots -13, Under 46.5
Patriots vs. Jets
Handicapping the Side
Playing 'over' the total is the much more comfortable betting option to me because when you look at the side it really comes down to two simple questions: Do you want a slumping New England team laying a full TD? Or would you prefer taking those points with a winless Jets team?
The answer to both questions in this spot is a resounding “no” from me, as I don't know how you can trust the Patriots to win comfortably, nor how you can trust the Jets to hang tough. Even in their other prime time appearance – the one where New York put up more than 17 points for the only time this year – the Jets still lost that game by nine to a Denver team that only just topped the 20-point mark themselves last week since that win over the Jets.
At the same time, Denver's a common foe for New England too, beating the Patriots, 18-12 in New England in the Broncos next game after the Jets contest, so laying the chalk with the Patriots isn't really an option either.
Belichick might be on an 8-0 SU run vs these piss poor Jets teams in recent years, but streaks like that are always made to be broken, and seeing the Jets win their first game of the year against the best organization of this century could turn out to be a cruel/beautiful version of poetic justice for just how far this Patriots organization has fallen this season.
Backup quarterback Joe Flacco is expected to start for the injured Sam Darnold on Monday Night Football and he hasn't looked sharp in either of his two previous starts this season for New York.
And while I'm aware that Flacco has gone 1-4 in his career versus New England during his tenure in Baltimore, he did lead the Ravens to 20-plus points in four of those contests.
So I'd lean to taking the points with New York as I do expect the Jets offense to find success, but that's also why the only play I'm comfortable making here is with the 'over.'
- LB Ja'Whaun Bentley: Groin - Questionable
- LB Shilique Calhoun: Knee - Questionable
- DT Carl Davis: Concussion - Questionable
- S Cody Davis: Calf - Questionable
- S Kyle Dugger: Ankle - Questionable
- K Nick Folk: Back - Questionable
- CB Stephon Gilmore: Knee - Questionable
- DE Lawrence Guy: Shoulder, elbow, knee - Questionable
- RB Damien Harris: Ankle - Questionable
- TE Ryan Izzo TE: Hamstring - Questionable
- CB J.C. Jackson: Knee - Questionable
- TE Dalton Keene: Knee - Questionable
- C Shaq Mason: Calf - Questionable
- DE John Simon: Elbow - Questionable
- G Joe Thuney: Ankle Questionable
- DE Deatrich Wise Jr.: Knee, hand - Questionable
- T Isaiah Wynn: Ankle - Questionable
- RB J.J. Taylor: Illness Out
- WR N'Keal Harry: Concussion - Out
- C Josh Andrews: Shoulder - Questionable
- LB Blake Cashman: Hamstrings - Out
- WR Jamison Crowder: Groin - Questionable
- QB Sam Darnold: Right Shoulder - Doubtful
- K Sam Ficken: Right Groin - Doubtful
- DE John Franklin-Myers: Knee - Questionable
- C Connor McGovern: Knee - Questionable
- DT Nathan Shepherd: Back - Questionable
- WR Vyncint Smith: Groin -Doubtful
- TE Trevon Wesco: Ankle -Out
- DT Quinnen Williams: Hamstring - Doubtful
Patriots vs. Jets - Predictions
- Score Prediction: Patriots 27 Jets 24
- Best Bet: Over 41
2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results
Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)
- Home-Away: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS
- Favorites-Underdogs: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
- Over-Under: 3-6
|2020 Monday Night Football Betting Results|