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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:48 PM

Ravens vs. Patriots Week 10 Predictions, Odds, Preview


  • November 15, 2020
  • By Matt Blunt
  • VegasInsider.com


It was the start of the last decade where it was generally accepted that New England was the better of these two teams, and yet, Baltimore always found a way to give the Patriots fits and even end New England's season on more then one occasion.

The roles look to be flipped as the 2020's start, without the jeopardy of a season as part of the stakes, but you know head coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots would love to be a headache for Baltimore on Sunday Night Football.

New England's the former champion who's been where the Ravens are looking to go, and they've also got a quarterbacks who was Lamar Jackson before Jackson came in the league. Cam Newton won a MVP and had opposing defenses preferring he pass on them too, but Cam just wants to win games now when he's counted out.

The Pats could gain a full game on the rest of their AFC East rivals depending on what happens before them on Sunday, and will probably be the side the oddsmakers prefer to get there. Should we be taking the points?

Betting Resources

Ravens-Patriots Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Baltimore -7
  • Money-Line: Baltimore -335, New England +275
  • Total: 43.5
  • Odds Subject to Change

    2020 Betting Stats

    (Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

    Baltimore

    • Overall: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U
    • Road: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 28.4 (Rank 8)
    • Defense PPG: 17.8 (Rank 1)
    • Offense YPG: 347.0 (Rank 23)
    • Defense YPG: 324.9 (Rank 8)

    New England

    • Overall: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U
    • Home: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 20.8 (Rank 28)
    • Defense PPG: 24.3 (Rank 12)
    • Offense YPG: 361.9 (Rank 18)
    • Defense YPG: 352.9 (Rank 12)

    Over vs. Under
    Handicapping the Total

    New England found a way to win a game on Monday Night Football last week, and they are well aware the challenge defensively is going to be much tougher this time around. But there are quite a few reasons to like the low side of this total, even despite the big jump upwards since opening.

    The upward move had to be expected given any low total in today's NFL gets 'over' money on precedent most times. And 43.5 still may be too low in the end, but it's settled here for some time now and I was always going to try and time out this peak. The Patriots defense is starting to get seen for some of the suspect numbers they've had, and even if you didn't know that, giving up 27 to the Jets should tell you all you really need to know there.

    But Belichick thrives on trying to confuse and frustrate the game's best, and at least from a scheme perspective I expect New England to find success defensively. If the Patriots are going to stay competitive in this one and even sniff out an outright upset, it's going to need a strong effort from the defense regardless. If those games end up in the 24-21, 21-17, 23-20, range of scores, I'll take my chances with being on the right side of this total that's deemed the fairest by the market.

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    Any Patriots blowout win, say like the Saints did over Tampa last week, could easily end up in a similar 35-10 or 38-3 range, but I also don't believe New England's offense is as talented as what the Saints have. So any New England blowout win still has the Pats struggling to get to 30 points themselves. Scores like 28-10, or 31-10, 28-14, are ones I'll hope I'm on the right side of too.

    Baltimore's the touchdown favorite though so we've got to put a bit more weight in the Ravens method of victory.

    Blowout wins by the Ravens might be a little better towards an 'over' then New England's blowout scores would be, but Baltimore knows how to run out a clock if they are up 31-3 late. The strength of the Ravens offense is their running game to begin with, and if they've got the right mix of dishes which keeps going for Jackson, Baltimore can simply march down the field.

    The Ravens have still held five of their eight opponents to fewer than 20 points against them, and again, 28-14 or 28-17 is just an assumed part of the risk there. Believing Belichick will scheme his defense off the field a few more times will hurt Baltimore's efficiency rating in putting up points in those scenarios and I prefer to think this game plays out that way to a degree.

    And any tight Ravens win would probably give a slight edge to the 'over', but any sort of weather could happen in New England on a mid-November Sunday evening. A 20-17 type game may not be the first choice of outcomes when seeing this game play out, but the Patriots have also only scored 6 and 12 points respectively in their last two home games.

    Rushing attacks from both sides should be featured enough to shorten the game to give any close 'under' looks enough of a push across the finish line, as even a score right in the middle (42 points) is something I've seen happen far too often before.

    Head-to-Head History

    • Nov. 3, 2019 - Baltimore 37 vs. New England 20, Ravens +3, Over 44.5
    • Dec. 12, 2016 - New England 30 vs. Baltimore 23, Patriots -6, Over 45
    • Jan. 10, 2015 - New England 35 vs. Baltimore 31, Ravens +7, Over 47.5

    Ravens vs. Patriots
    Handicapping the Side

    How you choose to view the Patriots after that Jets win is going to color the opinion of them on the side this week regardless.

    Needing a comeback to beat the Jets is a statement in itself, but they still got it done so tipping your hat is a must as well. The brighter of those two lens' is going to shade your opinion on this game where maybe we do see the Patriots cause those same headaches Baltimore used to give Belichick and the Pats 10 years ago.

    But if it's the fact that New England trailed for a large part of that game against the Jets on MNF that you can't get over, expecting Baltimore to run away with this is also a reasonable expectation.

    That was nearly five straight losses for the Pats – who really aren't a good football team this year – and taking points with that type of team is tough. Against a Super Bowl “favorite” with the reigning MVP in Jackson?

    Easy enough to pass.

    I do think Baltimore wins this game in the end, somewhere in the 24-17, 23-20 type range, something where I don't really want anything to do with either side, and one that hopefully lands on the right side of a close total that may have been bet too high.

    Key Injuries

    Baltimore

    • LB L.J. Fort: Finger - Questionable
    • RB Mark Ingram II: Ankle - Questionable
    • LB Matt Judon: Calf - Questionable
    • CB Jimmy Smith: Ankle - Doubftful
    • DE Calais Campbell: Calf - Out

    New England

    • LB Ja'Whaun Bentley: Groin - Questionable
    • S Terrence Brooks: Illness - Questionable
    • LB Shilique Calhoun: Knee - Questionable
    • S Cody Davis: Calf - Questionable
    • S Kyle Dugger: Ankle - Questionable
    • K Nick Folk: Back - Questionable
    • CB Stephon Gilmore: Knee - Questionable
    • DE Lawrence Guy: Shoulder - Questionable
    • RB Damien Harris: Ankle, Chest - Questionable
    • WR N'Keal Harry: Concussion - Questionable
    • TE Ryan Izzo: Hamstring - Questionable
    • CB Jonathan Jones: Illness - Questionable
    • C Shaq Mason: Calf - Questionable
    • DE John Simon: Elbow - Questionable
    • G Joe Thuney: Ankle - Questionable
    • DE Deatrich Wise Jr.: Knee, Hand - Questionable
    • OT Isaiah Wynn: Ankle - Questionable

    Ravens vs. Patriots - Predictions

    • Score Prediction: Baltimore 23 New England 17
    • Best Bet: Under 43.5

    2020 Sunday Night Football (SNF) Betting Results

    Betting Results

    Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

    • Home-Away: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
    • Favorites-Underdogs: 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS
    • Over-Under: 3-6
    2020 Sunday Night Football Betting Results
    Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS-Total
    1 Dallas at L.A. Rams Pick 'em, 51 20-17 Underdog-Under
    2 New England at Seattle Seahawks -4.5, 45 35-30 Favorite-Over
    3 Green Bay at New Orleans Saints -3, 52 37-30 Underdog-Over
    4 Philadelphia at San Francisco 49ers -8, 45.5 25-20 Underdog-Under
    5 Minnesota at Seattle Seahawks -5.5, 54 27-26 Underdog-Under
    6 L.A. Rams at San Francisco 49ers +2.5, 51.5 24-16 Underdog-Under
    7 Seattle at Arizona Seahawks -3.5, 55.5 37-34 (OT) Underdog-Over
    8 Dallas at Philadelphia Eagles -10, 43.5 23-9 Favorite-Under
    9 New Orleans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5, 51.5 38-3 Underdog-Under
    10 Baltimore at New England - - -
    11 Kansas City at Las Vegas - - -
    12 Chicago at Green Bay - - -
    13 Denver at Kansas City - - -
    14 Pittsburgh at Buffalo - - -
    15 San Francisco at Dallas - - -
    16 Tennessee at Green Bay - - -
    17 TBA vs. TBA - - -


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