Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:48 AM
Bears vs. Packers Week 12 Predictions, Odds, Preview
- November 28, 2020
- By Matt Blunt
Bears vs. Packers - Predictions
- Score Prediction: Green Bay 33 Chicago 24
- Best Bet: Over 44
Support on the Packers in this home game against the Bears has been eyed for weeks by some places in the market, and the spread for this game jumped late in the work week to try and get a bit more teaser protection as well.
There hasn't been much we've seen from Chicago's offense in any game to really believe they've got a shot at keeping up with Aaron Rodgers, as it's Trubisky time again for the Bears. That's much more familiar territory for both teams in preparation and there is good and bad for both teams in that scenario.
Trubisky does bring more mobility to the position, but it's actually been the stationary QB's – Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers – who've been the ones to beat the Packers this season. Yet, another thing that works out for the cheeseheads here.
Why is Chicago even showing up?
- Week 12 Matchup: NFC North
- Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
- Venue: Lambeau Field
- Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All | Bet Now in Nevada
Bears-Packers Betting Odds
Odds Subject to Change
2020 Betting Stats
(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)
- Overall: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U
- Road: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
- Offense PPG: 19.1 (Rank 31)
- Defense PPG: 20.9 (Rank 6)
- Offense YPG: 300.9 (Rank 31)
- Defense YPG: 340.1 (Rank 9)
- Overall: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U
- Home: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
- Offense PPG: 30.8 (Rank 3)
- Defense PPG: 25.8 (Rank 17)
- Offense YPG: 392.9 (Rank 7)
- Defense YPG: 344.3 (Rank 12)
Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total
Not everything is against the Bears though, as they do come into this game with extra rest off the bye, something that was probably needed after four straight losses; the last three by a single score.
A 5-1 start - thanks to being gifted a couple wins then too – has turned into a .500 record and time to sweat the direction of the season again.
Injury forced the QB switch, but it was getting bad for the Bears on offense and Trubisky deserved at least another crack at it soon. He's still a known commodity though, and recent starts against Green Bay have not gone well.
Last year it was a 29-for-53 day with 334 passing yards but with 1 TD and 2 INT in a 21-13 loss at Lambeau Field for Trubisky and the Bears, and that came after a 10-3 home loss for Chicago in the season opener.
Still, any 'under' look still has to dodge the QB on the other side in similar fashion to the MNF game this week, and Rodgers is as good as it gets over there. But Chicago's defense is what carries this team to begin with, and this unit hasn't allowed the Packers to score more than 24 on them in any of the previous five meetings.
The problem there is that dating back to late in the 2018-19 season, The Packers are 7-0 SU coming off a loss (beginning with a 34-20 win in Atlanta early Dec 2018), and have put up 35, 34, 31, 24, 34, 44, and 34 points in those seven contests.
Even the untrustworthy Bears offense can be counted on to do enough to get this one 'over' the total if Green Bay hits 30+ with an average of 33.7/game themselves in this spot of late.
If the Bears really want to change things around in trying to change their results, does that include playing higher scoring games after three of the four in this losing streak stayed 'under.'? Betting percentages up at the site show plenty of 'under' support in trusting the Bears offense and defense to be what they are. But I'm not so sure.
If Chicago is determined to put up a fight for their season, then getting an offense to execute off extra prep time shouldn't be too hard. They've already put so much strain on their defense to win them games this year that you can't ask them again to be forced to hold the Packers to 17 or less in those types of scenarios.
So go out and wing it in a game you aren't expected to win anyways. Green Bay's defense has given up 30+ in 40% of their games this year, so why not try to be aggressive and get two-thirds of that by the 4th quarter and see where you stand in the final 15 minutes if you're the Bears.
Rodgers off a loss is not someone I expect to struggle too much, even against the best defense in the league in getting off the field on 3rd down. Thinking that Chicago at least has some prolonged fight in them for a large portion of the game can only have me looking 'over the total here.
- Dec. 15, 2019 - Green Bay 21 vs. Chicago 13, Packers -4, Under 40
- Sep. 5, 2019 - Green Bay 10 at Chicago 3, Packers +3.5, Under 47
- Dec. 16, 2018 - Chicago 24 vs. Green Bay 17, Bears -5.5, Under 46.5
- Sep. 9, 2018 - Green Bay 24 vs. Chicago 23, Bears +6.5, Over 45
Bears vs. Packers
Handicapping the Side
With the bump up and over -9, any play on this side should see some decent weight put on the question of when is too many points actually too many points. I'm sure there is already a boat load of teaser money on the Packers at previous numbers, but the price is starting to get awfully expensive.
Chicago's defense is still the strength of this team and that unit alone could be responsible for keeping any Bears defeat well within this margin.
But the idea of any single digit spread for Green Bay still not being enough is a viable one as well, although hopefully if you were a part of that boat initially you found time to add the Packers to your Week 12 portfolio much earlier in the week.
In those recent seven wins when coming off a loss by Green Bay, five of them came by double digits, and all by at least six points.
Still not entirely sure which of those two perspectives I'd side with here, although most of the week questioning all of that was when Green Bay was at a slightly lower number. Again, Chicago off a bye with their season on the line isn't a horrible spot to be grabbing all those points, but league wide this year, NFL teams off a bye are 12-14 ATS.
Hopefully for the Packers sake they do find a way to win this game outright, letting those in survivor pools everywhere rejoice, but it's tough to lay the price with them now when the initial number brought it's own questions.
- QB Nick Foles: Hip - Doubtful
- DE Akiem Hicks: Hamstring - Questionable
- OL Rashaad Coward: Ankle - Questionable
- OL Charles Leno, Jr.: Toe - Questionable
- S Sherrick McManis: Hand - Questionable
- DB Buster Skrine: Ankle - Questionable
- C Sam Mustipher: Knee - Probable
- RB David Montgomery: Concussion - Probable
- QB Mitchell Trubisky: Shoulder - Probable
- S Eddie Jackson: COVID - Probable
- WR Javon Wims: Suspension - Probable
- DE Montravius Adams: Toe - Out
- RB Tyler Ervin: Wrist/Ribs - Questionable
- CB Josh Jackson: Concussion - Questionable
- CB Kevin King: Achilles - Questionable
- C Corey Linsley: Back - Questionable
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Achilles - Questionable
- WR Equanimeous St. Brown: Knee - Questionable
- TE Marcedes Lewis: Knee - Questionable
- CB Ka'dar Hollman: Quad - Probable
- WR Davante Adams: Ankle - Probable
- C Corey Linsley: Back - Probable
2020 Sunday Night Football (SNF) Betting Results
Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)
- Home-Away: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS
- Favorites-Underdogs: 4-7 SU, 2-9 ATS
- Over-Under: 4-7
|2020 Sunday Night Football Betting Results|
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