Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:48 AM

Bills vs. Patriots Week 16 Predictions, Odds, Preview

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  • December 28, 2020
  • By Matt Blunt
  • VegasInsider.com

Fresh off their first AFC East title in more than 20 years, the Buffalo Bills get to visit the vanquished champion on the first stop of their celebratory tour.

New England moved on from quarterback Tom Brady this year and the playoffs moved on from New England in response, as the Patriots are left to ponder how much change the immediate future holds.

So a Monday Night Football game that schedule makers had hoped would have the AFC East title up for grabs is the first stop of Buffalo's coronation tour and it would be quite the opponent to trip up on.

Thanks to another assist from Cincinnati's outright win over Pittsburgh last Monday Night, Buffalo started the week as the No. 2 seed if the playoffs started today.

Bigger things are ahead for the Bills no question, but if you rest on your laurels against head coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots on national television, he's quite likely to embarrass you in the process.

The secret's long been out on how good this Buffalo team is, can they conquer some division rivals in the process of staying sharp?

Bills vs. Patriots - Predictions

  • Score Prediction: New England 27 Buffalo 24
  • Best Bet: Under 54.5

Betting Resources

Bills-Patriots Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Bills -7
  • Money-Line: Buffalo -330 New England +270
  • Total: 46
  • Odds Subject to Change

    2020 Betting Stats

    (Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

    Buffalo

    • Overall: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-4-1 O/U
    • Road: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-1-1 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 29.1 (Rank 5)
    • Defense PPG: 24.3 (Rank 16)
    • Offense YPG: 386.7 (Rank 6)
    • Defense YPG: 356.1 (Rank 16)

    New England

    • Overall: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS, 4-10 O/U
    • Home: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 1-5 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 20.6 (Rank 27)
    • Defense PPG: 21.5 (Rank 7)
    • Offense YPG: 330.8 (Rank 24)
    • Defense YPG: 345.4 (Rank 11)

    Over vs. Under
    Handicapping the Total

    Nothing about this total seemed attractive from the outset for this game, even before any number was put out. New England's offense struggles to put up points and move the ball to begin with, a disinterested Patriots team isn't exactly helping that cause.

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    But a New England team that feels like Buffalo's taken them lightly and gets after frustrating QB Josh Allen with a takeaway or two can lead to quick scores as well.

    Still can't be certain New England's offense cashes in for the full amount if turnovers happen, and that also means it's a sloppy effort from this Bills offense that's generally scoring 30+, hurting 'over' chances as well.

    New England's string of six straight 'unders' cashing will be tested with Buffalo being the best offense of the bunch they've seen there, and it's also the Patriots first game at home in nearly a month (Nov 29th) which can be considered a boost to their own offense.

    Too many cases to be made on too many sides of the story for this total for me to get interested in any of them.

    The first meeting – a Buffalo win 24-21 – went 'over' the total of 41 that day, but Buffalo hasn't scored fewer than 26 points in any game since then. The jump in the total from that meeting to this reflects that, so easy one to avoid.

    Head-to-Head History

    • Nov. 1, 2020 - Buffalo 24 vs. New England 21, Bills -4, Over 41
    • Dec. 21, 2019 - New England 24 vs. Buffalo 17, Patriots -6.5, Over 39
    • Sept. 29, 2019 - New England 16 at Buffalo 10, Patriots -7, Under 41.5
    • Dec. 23, 2018 - New England 24 vs. Buffalo 12, Patriots -13.5, Under 45

    Bills vs. Patriots
    Handicapping the Side

    New England should have won that first meeting had QB Cam Newton not fumbled inside the red zone on that final New England drive.

    That was one of the few times I was holding a Patriots ticket this year, and it really was a game where the outright money-line should have cashed for New England as well. No opposing defense has held Buffalo to fewer points since, and Josh Allen was 11-for-18 for 154 yards, 0 TD, and 1 INT in that game.

    Allen has never liked seeing the Patriots defense across from him, and while he may not see ghosts over there like another young AFC East QB, in three other starts against New England, Allen has never thrown for more than 217 yards, and has a career TD to INT ratio against New England of 3:6.

    In a post-division-clinching spot, those aren't numbers I'd want to see when considering laying the number with Buffalo on the road.

    So hoping the Patriots show enough interest in wanting to close this year out professionally, I think taking the points with them at home is the way to go.

    It's not a flip of the result from the first meeting which is slightly concerning, but New England's defense has stayed true to themselves all year long and they understand how to get to Allen. The Patriots have allowed 17 points or fewer in three of their last six games, and nobody topped 27 in the other three.

    Josh Allen's past Bills teams have never put up more than the 24 they did on New England in the first meeting, and keeping the Bills ceiling there should give the Patriots a great opportunity to stay within this number.

    I can trust Newton and the offense to put together a few successful drives again like in the first meeting, as it's been awhile since Buffalo's seen a running QB too. The last two – Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson – each scored 30+ on this Buffalo defense, in the two successive weeks following Buffalo's first win over New England.

    Cam coughing up the first meeting late the way he did is something he probably hasn't let go of either, and from a competitor's perspective you can get behind that. But any Patriots ticket will get there on the back of New England's defense staying true to what they do in holding teams to 212 passing yards per game.

    The underdog is on a 3-0-1 ATS run in this rivalry with the Patriots cashing in that role for the first time earlier this season. On the strength of New England's defense (and maybe some sloppy Buffalo offense), backing the Patriots to make it two straight for themselves, and five straight without a loss ATS for the underdog in this rivalry feels like it makes the most sense.

    Key Injuries

    Buffalo

    • TE Reggie Gilliam: Knee-Hamstring - Out
    • S Jaquan Johnson: Ankle - Questionable
    • OL Ty Nsekhe: Groint - Questionable

    New England

    • C David Andrews: Calf
    • LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Shoulder
    • OLB Tawshawn Bower: Ankle
    • DT Adam Butler: Shoulder
    • LB Shilique Calhoun: Knee
    • LS Joe Cardona: Ankle
    • DT Byron Cowart: Back
    • OT Jermaine Eluemunor: Ankle
    • K Nick Folk: Back
    • DT Lawrence Guy: Shoulder
    • RB Damien Harris: Ankle
    • OL Justin Herron: Ankle
    • CB J.C. Jackson: Knee
    • LB Anfernee Jennings: Shoulder
    • CB Jonathan Jones: Neck
    • G Shaq Mason: Calf
    • WR Donte Moncrief: Thigh
    • DE John Simon: Hamstring
    • WR Matthew Slater: Knee
    • RB J.J. Taylor: Quadricep

    2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results

    Betting Results

    Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

    • Home-Away: 5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS
    • Favorites-Underdogs: 9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS
    • Over-Under: 8-7
    2020 Monday Night Football Betting Results
    Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS-Total
    1 Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants Steelers -6, 44 26-16 Favorite-Under
    1 Tennessee at Denver Titans -3, 41.5 16-14 Underdog-Under
    2 New Orleans at Las Vegas Saints -4, 47.5 34-24 Underdog-Over
    3 Kansas City at Baltimore Ravens -3.5, 55 34-20 Underdog-Under
    4 Atlanta at Green Bay Packers -5, 56.5 30-16 Favorite-Under
    5 L.A. Chargers at New Orleans Saints -7, 49 30-27 (OT) Underdog-Over
    6 Arizona at Dallas Cowboys -1, 56 38-10 Underdog-Under
    7 Chicago at L.A. Rams Rams -6.5, 44 24-10 Favorite-Under
    8 Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants Buccaneers -12.5, 47 25-23 Underdog-Over
    9 New England at N.Y. Jets Patriots -9, 42 30-27 Underdog-Over
    10 Minnesota at Chicago Vikings -3.5, 44 19-13 Favorite-Under
    11 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4, 47.5 27-24 Underdog-Over
    12 Seattle at Philadelphia Seahawks -6.5, 49.5 23-17 Underdog-Under
    13 Buffalo at San Francisco 49ers -1.5, 48.5 34-24 Underdog-Over
    14 Baltimore at Cleveland Ravens -3, 43.5 47-42 Favorite-Over
    15 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Steelers -11.5, 40.5 27-17 Underdog-Over
    16 Buffalo at New England - - -

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