Bears vs. Saints Wild Card Playoff Predictions, Odds

• Jan. 9, 2021
• By Jonathan Willis
• VegasInsider.com

Bears vs. Saints - Predictions

• Score Prediction: New Orleans 23, Chicago 21
• Best Bet: Bears +10

Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are the biggest favorites of Wild Card Weekend. New Orleans has been superb at home under Brees over the last 15 years.

That will make things difficult for the Chicago Bears, who snuck into the playoffs at 8-8 following Arizona’s collapse, but at least Chicago doesn’t have to deal with a raucous Bourbon Street crowd on Sunday afternoon.

Betting Resources

• Playoff Matchup: NFC Wild Card Weekend
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
• Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
• Date: Sunday, Jan. 10, 2021
• Time: 4:40 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All |Bet Now in Nevada

Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds

Line Movements

Odds Subject to Change

How to Handicap Bears vs. Saints

The Saints overcame a 1-2 start to win six straight games and take a firm grip on the NFC South However, Brees sustained multiple broken ribs in Week 10 to put this team’s postseason hopes on hold.

Many expected Jameis Winston to take the reins, but Sean Payton turned to Taysom Hill, and he led the Saints to a 3-1 mark in the four games Brees was out with an injury.

New Orleans was unable to beat Kansas City in Brees’ return, but this team knocked off Minnesota and Carolina to finish the season with a bang. The Saints cruised to comfortable wins in both games, easily covering the spread.

Chicago had a puzzling year. The Bears pulled off three incredible comebacks in the first three weeks to start the season 3-0. Mitchell Trubisky was pulled for Nick Foles in Week 3, but Chicago raced out to a 5-1 record before the wheels came off.

This team lost six straight games in the middle of the season and seemed destined to miss the playoffs with a 5-7 record going into Week 14.

However, the Bears went on to win three of their next four games to sneak into the playoffs as Trubisky led Chicago to 30 points or more in four of their six games after the bye week.

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Chicago Bears

• Overall: 8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U
• Road: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U
• Offense PPG: 23.3 (Rank 22nd)
• Defense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 14th)
• Offense YPG: 331.4 (Rank 26th)
• Defense YPG: 344.9 (Rank 11th)

New Orleans Saints

• Overall: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 10-6 O/U
• Home: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U
• Offense PPG: 30.1 (Rank 5th)
• Defense PPG: 21.1 (Rank 5th)
• Offense YPG: 376.4 (Rank 12th)
• Defense YPG: 310.9 (Rank 4th)

Betting Analysis - Chicago Bears

Trubisky was better than Foles all year, but head coach Matt Nagy was reticent to go back to Trubisky even when it became clear that Foles wasn’t as good of an option. Everyone was ready to move on from the maligned Trubisky, yet his play helped spur Chicago’s playoff push. He completed 67 percent of his passes for 2,055 yards (6.9 YPA) with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Additionally, Trubisky was the third leading rusher with 195 yards (5.9 YPC) and a touchdown.

David Montgomery ended the season with a flourish to go over the 1,000-yard mark in his second season. He finished tied with James Robinson for fifth in the NFL in rushing, picking up 1,070 yards (4.3 YPC) with eight touchdowns. Montgomery also had 54 receptions for 438 yards and two touchdowns.

You don’t feel bad for many football players, but Allen Robinson II has toiled in relative obscurity throughout his entire NFL career. He is one of the ten most talented receivers in the league, yet he never gets to show it considering the quarterbacks he has played with over his seven years.

Robinson was once again Chicago’s best receiver by a mile with 102 receptions for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns in 2020. Darnell Mooney was second on the Bears with 61 receptions for 631 yards and four TDs.

Defense has been a mainstay for Chicago over the decades. The Bears have some very talented players on this side of the ball in Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson, and Kyle Fuller. Mack and Smith are the two top playmakers, but the latter is unlikely to play because of an elbow injury.

Betting Analysis - New Orleans Saints

Brees doesn’t have the arm strength he did earlier in his career. We have seen the field shrink with the ball in his hands over the last few years, but he is still very efficient although he is on the decline.

He completed 70.5 percent of his passes for 2,942 yards (7.5 YPA) with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions in 12 games. Brees is a statue in the pocket, but he has a quick release and uses the short passing game well leading to just 13 sacks.

It appears that Alvin Kamara will be cleared from COVID protocol by the time this game rolls around on Sunday. Kamara’s status for the Wild Card Round has been dicey since he contracted the virus prior to Week 17 and New Orleans playing on Sunday instead of Saturday has helped.

The versatile running back is crucial to this offense with 932 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and 16 touchdowns to go with leading the team in receiving with 83 receptions for 756 yards and five TDs.

Michael Thomas missed more than half the season due to injury. He only recently returned to practice after missing the last three games with a hamstring issue, so his status is up on the air. If Thomas can’t play, that means a lot of looks for Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook.

This defense has been underrated for the last few years. New Orleans ranks in the top five in scoring defense and total defense. Trey Hendrickson had a breakout year opposite Cameron Jordan, and Marshon Lattimore was one of the best cornerbacks in the conference once more. This team has playmakers at every level.

Last Meeting

The Saints needed overtime to beat the Bears 26-23 in Week 8. There was a surprising amount of offense given the talent on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. Kamara had a big game with 163 total yards, while Foles played well in the loss.

Notable Betting Trends

• The 'over' has cashed in five of Chicago’s last six games
• Chicago has only covered once in its last five games against New Orleans

Head-to-Head History

• Nov. 1, 2020 - New Orleans 26 at Chicago 23 (OT), Bears +5.5, Over 41
• Oct. 20, 2019 - New Orleans 36 at Chicago 25, Saints +4, Under 37
• Oct. 29, 2017 - New Orleans 20 vs. Chicago 12, Saints -7.5, Under 46

Recent Playoff History

Chicago Bears

• Jan. 6, 2018 - Bears 15 vs. Eagles 16, Bears -6.5, Under 41.5
• Jan. 23, 2011 - Bears 14 vs. Packers 21, Bears +3.5, Under 42
• Jan. 16, 2011 - Bears 35 vs. Seahawks 24, Bears -10, Over 42.5

New Orleans Saints

• Jan. 5, 2020 - Saints 20 vs. Vikings 26 (OT), Saints -7.5, Under 50
• Jan. 20, 2019 - Saints 23 vs. Rams 26 (OT), Saints -3, Under 55.5
• Jan. 13, 2019 - Saints 20 vs. Eagles 14, Saints -8.5, Under 52

Key Injuries

Chicago Bears

• LB Roquan Smith: Elbow – Questionable
• CB Buster Skrine: Concussion – Questionable
• WR Darnell Mooney: Ankle – Questionable
• CB Jaylon Johnson: Shoulder – Questionable
• S Deon Bush: Foot – Questionable

New Orleans Saints

• WR Deonte Harris: Back – Questionable
• WR Michael Thomas: Ankle – Questionable
• S Marcus Williams: Ankle – Questionable
• RB Alvin Kamara: COVID-19 – Questionable
• TE Josh Hill: Hand – Questionable
• S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson: COVID – Questionable
• C Nick Easton: Personal – Out
• RB Dwayne Washington: COVID-19 – Probable
• FB Michael Burton: COVID-19 – Probable
• RB Latavius Murray: COVID-19 – Probable

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