Buccaneers vs. Saints Divisional Playoff Predictions, Odds


Buccaneers vs. Saints Best Bets


Had the Saints not found some interesting ways to get eliminated from the 2017 and 2018 playoffs, we could have had a Brady/Brees matchup then for all the marbles.

Both quarterbacks are in their early 40's now which is still remarkable, and a Super Bowl title might not be on the line, but if the rumors end up being true, the length of Drew Brees' career is. Interesting backdrop to the Saints trying to pull off the three-game season sweep of Tampa Bay at the same time.

The Bucs weren't shy about spending the money to win in a very brief window these next couple of years, and it's no guarantee they ever get closer than this. Their clunker football game of the year just so happened to come against this Saints team on SNF, and the first loss was Tom Brady's first game in a Bucs uniform. Off no training camp etc etc..

It is hard to forget the domination Tampa was on the wrong end of in a 38-3 Sunday Night Football win by the Saints though.

However, even with Tampa's only two losses in their eight games since then came by three points against the Rams and Chiefs; two teams still playing football this weekend as well.

Buccaneers vs. Saints - Predictions

  • Score Prediction: New Orleans 35 Tampa Bay 31
  • Best Bet: Over 52

Buccaneers vs. Saints Betting Resources

  • Playoff Matchup: NFC Divisional Round Weekend
  • Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
  • Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 17, 2021
  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Buccaneers vs. Saints Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: New Orleans -3
  • Money-Line: New Orleans -170 Tampa Bay +150
  • Total: 52
  • Odds Subject to Change

    2020 Betting Stats

    (Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    • Overall: 12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS, 10-7 O/U
    • Road: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 30.8 (3)
    • Defense PPG: 22.2 (8)
    • Offense YPG: 391.3 (4)
    • Defense YPG: 329.9 (7)

    New Orleans Saints

    • Overall: 13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 11-6 O/U
    • Home: 7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 29.6 (5)
    • Defense PPG: 20.4 (3)
    • Offense YPG: 376.9 (11)
    • Defense YPG: 306.6 (2)

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    Over vs. Under
    Handicapping the Total

    The two meetings during the year split on the total (1-1 O/U), but the Saints did put up 30 or more on both occasions.

    Tampa has scored 30 or more in five of their eight games since that 38-3 debacle, and come into this one riding four straight in that regard.

    Brady really appears to have found his stride with this offense, but with the Bucs defense giving up at least 23 points in six of those eight games as well, Tampa's needed every single one of those points to get to this point.

    This game kind of brings the feel that points will be traded frequently between these two guys, as both try to make one more late career run at a ring.

    The Saints scoring 30+ in both meetings against Tampa is more commonplace than a simple head-to-head edge somewhere if most of the league is scoring in the mid-20's just for showing up. Brees should be able to get to that number with some comfort you would think.

    We've already seen a market move upwards on this total and win or lose that's probably the best way to look at.

    Being on the side of expecting these two QB's to do something positive comes up in a lot of likely outcomes here, as the winner probably needs at least 30 again.

    Eight of the last nine games between these two franchises have seen the winner score 30 or more, as the 'over' has connected in six of those games.

    Head-to-Head History

    • Nov. 8, 2020 - New Orleans 38 at Tampa Bay 3, Saints +3, Under 51
    • Sept. 13, 2020 - New Orleans 34 vs. Tampa Bay 23, Saints -4, Over 48
    • Nov. 17, 2019 - New Orleans 34 at Tampa Bay 17, Saints -5, Over 50.5
    • Oct. 6, 2019 - New Orleans 31 vs. Tampa Bay 24, Saints -3, Over 46.5

    Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has gone 6-3 both SU and ATS in his career when listed as a playoff underdog. (AP)

    Buccaneers vs. Saints
    Handicapping the Side

    A matchup of two great QB's like this was always going to see early movement for the underdog, and at -3, the number is probably right where it should be. We've seen some questionable efforts from both guys at times this year – Brees needed OT to beat the Chargers and Bears in the regular season, while losing to the Raiders and Eagles.

    Brady's rougher outings were much earlier in the year, and him catching points in the playoffs is never going to be the worst betting option to be on.

    In nine situations with the Patriots, Brady went 6-3 both SU and ATS and that includes a pair of wins in the Super Bowl.

    Make a note that two of the losses came at Denver, which is never an easy place to visit in January. Not surprisingly, the offense was held to 16 and 13 points.

    In the other setback, Peyton Manning and the Colts rallied past Brady and company for a 38-34 shootout win in the AFC Championship. That game was played indoors at the old RCA Dome in Indy so maybe I'm onto something with upward lean on Sunday.

    Brady Underdog Playoff History

    • 2019 - Patriots (+3) 37 at Chiefs 31, Over 56
    • 2015 - Patriots (+1) 28 vs. Seahawks 24, Over 47.5 (SB 49)
    • 2014 - Patriots (+4.5) 16 at Broncos 26, Under 56.5
    • 2007 - Patriots (+3.5) 34 at Colts 38, Over 47
    • 2007 - Patriots (+4.5) 24 at Chargers 21, Under 46
    • 2006 - Patriots (+3) 13 at Broncos 27, Under 45.5
    • 2005 - Patriots (+1) 20 vs. Colts 13, Under 51
    • 2002 - Patriots (+14) 20 vs. Rams 17, Under 53
    • 2002 - Patriots (+8) 24 at Steelers 17, Over 36 (SB 36)

    We can't forget about the way the Saints have fallen in recent postseasons either. They did cover the healthy number (-11) versus the Bears last week but New Orleans was on a 0-4 ATS run in the playoffs prior to that win and they dropped two of those games outright to the Vikings (26-20) and Rams (26-23) each of the last two playoffs.

    If you make any sort of mistakes against a Brady-led team and history suggests you're going to end up on the wrong end of that result.

    But New Orleans has also shown they've got something working against this Bucs offense, picking off Brady five times in those two wins, nearly half of his 12 total INT's thrown this year.

    Hard not to have plenty of confidence being 2-0 SU and ATS against Tampa this season too, and having Brees at home to win by a FG is never the worst betting option either.

    Fair number and one that's not one that really warrants a strong opinion on either side in my view. There are strong cases to be made for both sides, and with what's on the line for the career arcs of the two QB's, cracking a cold one and enjoying what should be a good game is my way of approaching the side.

    But there have been too many years recently where all the Super Bowl props pieces have included Tom Brady.

    I enjoyed the change last year and hope it continues.


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    Key Injuries

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    • RB Ronald Jones (Calf) – Probable
    • S Andrew Adams (Personal) – Questionable

    New Orleans Saints

    • QB Taysom Hill (Knee) – Questionable
    • RB Latavius Murray (Quadricep) – Questionable
    • CB Patrick Robinson (Hamstring) – Questionable

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