Buccaneers vs. Packers NFC Championship Predictions, Odds

Buccaneers vs. Packers Video Picks

• Jan. 23, 2021
• By Matt Blunt
• VegasInsider.com

Buccaneers vs. Packers - Predictions

• Score Prediction: Green Bay 31 Tampa Bay 23
• Best Bet: Green Bay

Brady vs Rodgers.

The Super Bowl matchup everyone half-expected to see at least once over the past decade of NFL football is now one we get to see with a Super Bowl berth at stake. It might not be the “two quarterbacks in their primes” matchup one of those fantasized past Super Bowls would have been, but both guys are playing some very good football at the moment and it very well could be anyone's ball game.

Tom Brady made a point to go somewhere warm if he left New England, and yet here he is having to go through one of the coldest places in the league to get to his unprecedented 10th Super Bowl.

Aaron Rodgers would love to have his 2nd experience in the big game, and for the first time in his career, he tries to do so at home. January home games for the Packers can be partially won by the weather before the game even kicks off.

The Buccaneers as a franchise have had to visit Green Bay once before in the NFL playoffs, and the guys from Florida didn't exactly fare too well in the 21-7 loss to Green Bay in the 1997 Divisional Round. Green Bay went to (and lost) the Super Bowl that season and that's obviously on the table for the Packers again this season.

At least does the first half of that history repeat with a Packers Super Bowl appearance?

Or will the great Tom Brady beat Rodgers for the 2nd time this season and head back to the Super Bowl in the process?

Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers (All-Time Results)

Tom Brady owns a 4-2 all-time record versus the Green Bay Packers, which includes this year's regular season meeting. During his tenure with the New England Patriots, Brady went 3-2 versus the Packers and that includes a 1-1 record at Lambeau.

Aaron Rodgers is just 2-3 all-time against Tampa Bay but to be fair, all four games were played in the Sunshine State. In the long game from Wisconsin, Rodgers dominated the Bucs for a 35-26 victory.

The two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks have met three times as starters and Brady holds a 2-1 edge in the series with the home team winning all three decisions.

• Oct. 18, 2020 - Buccaneers 38 vs. Packers 10
• Nov. 4, 2018 - Patriots 31 vs. Packers 17
• Nov. 30, 2014 - Packers 26 vs. Patriots 21

The 'under' has connected in three all-time meetings between Brady and Rodgers.

Buccaneers vs. Packers Betting Resources

• Playoff Matchup: NFC Championship
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Lambeau Field
• Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
• Date: Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021
• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Buccaneers vs. Packers Betting Odds

Line Movements

Odds Subject to Change

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Overall: 13-5 SU, 10-8 ATS, 10-8 O/U
• Road: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 O/U
• Offense PPG: 30.7 (2)
• Defense PPG: 22.1 (8)
• Offense YPG: 387.1 (4)
• Defense YPG: 327.9 (7)

Green Bay Packers

• Overall: 14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS, 10-7 O/U
• Home: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
• Offense PPG: 31.8 (1)
• Defense PPG: 22.8 (12)
• Offense YPG: 394.6 (2)
• Defense YPG: 328.7 (2)

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

There are all sorts of different angles to look at during Conference Championship week, whether it's the run home teams are currently riding in these games, or specific NFC/AFC historical trends that have cropped up over the years.

Two I thought I would hear more about this week though are the revenge angle (for both games), but also the whole “no NFL team has gone to the Super Bowl when they've hosted it thing.”

That's a historical hurdle you know someone like Brady would love to add to his resume. And while the whole idea of “revenge” can elicit a wide variety of mostly valid perspectives, when it comes to return matches with a Super Bowl berth on the line, flipping the script at least against the number is usually in order.

Throughout my research this week I've landed on a few nuggets that are definitely worth mentioning, with the first being just how these Conference Championship (non-division) rematch games have gone.

I went back and found all 23 times they've happened since the realignment year of 2002-03, and at least in terms of the total, looking at the 'over' and expecting some points in both games may be in order.

The O/U record in these same season rematch games in this round are 14-8-1 O/U since the 2002-03 season, regardless of where the regular season matchup landed on the total.

Those 'over' numbers are being put up with the strong likelihood of it being worse/colder weather than the first meeting too. Both teams are obviously playing great football currently to get to this point, so executing in worse conditions hasn't always been a problem for two teams squaring off for the second time in a season.

I would guess a lot of that has to do with the ability to self-scout a game film where you were up against that exact opponent and also don't have as deep of a book on them as you would a divisional rival. Pouring over that film has coaches seeing exactly what calls worked, and what didn't, and maybe more importantly, showing them what kind of calls to expect to see up against their favorite calls.

A full week to figure out how to best adapt has to be partly behind the offenses having so much success in this scenario of Conference Championship, and playing the 'over' is the only way I'd look at the total here.

The film from the first meeting has the Packers only scoring 10 points sticking out like a sore thumb, and you've got to expect more from Rodgers and company than that here.

Tampa's defense may have looked good in forcing all those turnovers last week, but they've still gone up against a Washington team with a QB making his first start, and a Saints team who went with a guy we now learned was playing with a torn rotator cuff and pretty much had to dink and dunk the ball like he did.

Facing Rodgers is a completely different beast now, and seeing these two QB's sling it up and down the field against one another would make for one hell of a game.

Not sure either defense can be completely trusted to completely slow down either offense, and with a 28-24 type game getting the 'over' there, the historical 'over' trend of Conference Championship games being non-division rematches adds another one to the tally.

Buccanners vs. Packers - Head-to-Head History

• Oct. 18, 2020 - Tampa Bay 38 vs. Green Bay 10, Buccaneers +2.5, Under 55
• Dec. 3, 2017 - Green Bay 26 vs. Tampa Bay 20, Packers -3, Over 45.5
• Dec. 21, 2014 - Green Bay 20 at Tampa Bay 3, Packers -11.5, Under 48.5

The Buccaneers have gone 1-15 in their last 16 games at Lambeau Field against the Packers. (AP)

Buccaneers vs. Packers
Handicapping the Side

When going through those past Conference Championship rematches, the more interesting angle did have to do with the side though.

In those 23 games, 16 times the NFL team that didn't cover the number in the regular season game, did so in the Conference Championship. (See Table Above)

Obviously that's great news for Packers fans this week (and Bills fans), as history has shown that same season revenge in the Conference Championship has tended to work against the number.

Green Bay does have the benefit of being at home this time around, one that definitely means more in Green Bay in January, and as I said before, I'm not sure all this Tampa love is all that warranted after beating who they've beaten (and what physical shape they were in) in the playoffs to get here.

Inside the Stats

Furthermore, when going over other stats I believe to be key (3rd down conversion % on offense and defense, turnover margin – ie simplistic football, stay on the field on offense, get off it on defense, and protect the football) and came across one thing that was specific to Green Bay this year.

That is, going back to 2003, of all the 34 Conference Championships and 17 Super Bowls played since then, only one team that went into Conference Championship weekend with an opponent 3rd down conversion percentage of 40% or higher (ie worse) went on to win the Super Bowl that season: The 2006 Indianapolis Colts.

Teams with 40% and above opponent 3rd down conversion rates have gone through this game and gotten to the Super Bowl in that span, but they've never won it.

The 2016 Atlanta Falcons (41.78% opp 3rd down %) headed into the Conference Championship that year, and we all remember how the Falcons coughed up that title.

The “40% rule” got the 2011 Patriots, 2009 Indianapolis Colts, and the 2008 Arizona Cardinals in those respective Super Bowls.

More recently though we've seen more of these 40% rule teams falling in this game exactly, with the 2012 Atlanta Falcons, 2013 Patriots, 2014 Packers, 2016 Packers/Falcons game had both, 2016 Steelers, and 2018 Saints.

So why is all this important?

Well here are the opponent 3rd down conversion percentages for the four teams left heading into the week:

Kansas City: 41.29
Buffalo: 40.89

Green Bay: 38.86
Tampa Bay: 41.3

That's not to say Packers fans should start clearing the parade route, but when 16 of the last 17 Super Bowl Champions were all below 40% in that statistic and the Packers are the only ones left in these playoffs that can lay claim to that notion now.

Combine all of that, with most of this stuff I laid out earlier in the week, and let's not forget about the Super Bowl host team never making it to the game, give me Green Bay all day over Tampa Bay.

If the Packers are the only ones left on the good side of the 40 rule, and that's been a part of 16 of the past 17 champions, well, Green Bay's got to get to the Super Bowl first before they can become a champion, and Rodgers makes sure he doesn't come up short in this game again.

The fact that the Packers were in this identical spot last year with the same season revenge against the 49ers and completely laid an egg the 2nd time around is the best learning experience/memories to draw back on for the Packers this year, and this time at home they don't let it go to waste.

Between the lines with this specific Packers team, there are numbers all across the board on both sides of the ball that are hard not to like, as it's just much harder to trust this Tampa team in cold conditions in what you know will be a public underdog role for them as well.

There have been so many historical angles presented this week that don't do any favors at all for the Bucs, and a strong first year of the Brady era comes to an end this weekend.

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Key Injuries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• CB JAntoine Winfield Jr.: Ankle - Questionable
• OLB Jason Pierre-Paul: Knee - Questionable
• WR Mike Evans: Knee - Questionable
• WR Chris Godwin: Quadricep - Questionable
• RB Ronald Jones: Quadricep-Finger - Questionable
• CB Sean Murphy-Buntin: Quadricep-Ankle - Questionable
• S Jordan Whitehead: Knee - Questionable
• WR Antonio Brown: Knee - Out

Green Bay Packers

• CB Kevin King: Back - Questionable
• K Mason Crosby: Shoulder - Probable
• TE Marcedes Lewis: Knee - Probable
• RB AJ Dillon: Quadricep - Probable
• WR Allen Lazard: Wrist-Back - Questionable
• RB Jamaal Williams: Ankle - Questionable
• S Will Redmond: Knee - Questionable

NFC Championship Betting History

Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 19-14 in the title game. Over the last six seasons, the 'over' is on a 5-1 run in this conference title game.

There have been five totals in NFC Championship betting history that have closed at 50 points or higher and the attacks lived up to the expectations as the 'over' has gone 4-1. The most recent NFC edition between the Rams and Saints was one of those contests and that game stayed 'under' the total. Even though that game saw an extra session (OT), total bettors have seen the 'over' go 4-2 in the six NFC Championships that went to overtime.

Overall NFC Championship Betting Results

• Favorite-Underdog (F-D)
• Home-Away (H-A)
• Straight Up (SU)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over-Under (OU)

NFC Championship History - Buccaneers & Packers

Tampa Bay

1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2 OU

• 2002 - Tampa Bay 27 at Philadelphia 10, Buccaneers +4, Over 34
• 1999 - Tampa Bay 6 at St. Louis 11, Buccaneers +11, Under 44
• 1979 - Tampa Bay 0 at L.A. Rams 9, Buccaneers +3.5

Green Bay

3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 OU

• 2019 - Green Bay 20 at San Francisco 37, Packers +7.5, Over 47
• 2016 - Green Bay 21 at Atlanta 44, Packers +6, Over 60
• 2014 - Green Bay 22 at Seattle 28 (OT), Packers +8.5, Over 45
• 2010 - Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14, Packers -3.5, Under 42
• 2007 - Green Bay 20 vs. N.Y. Giants 23 (OT), Packers -8, Over 41
• 1997 - Green Bay 23 at San Francisco 10, Packers -2.5, Under 44
• 1996 - Green Bay 30 vs. Carolina 13, Packers -12.5, Over 38
• 1995 - Green Bay 27 at Dallas 38, Packers +8.5, Over 50

NFC Championship Line History