Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 17, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

The sixth week of regular-season NFL action will resume Sunday mid-afternoon with a compelling interconference matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots. Coverage begins at 4:25 p.m. E.T. on CBS.

Score Prediction

Cowboys 31, Patriots 20

Best Bets

Dallas -3.5

Dak Prescott (DAL/QB) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Predictions

After finishing third in the NFC East with a record of 6-10 last season, the Cowboys drew an incredibly tough opening matchup to kick things off in Week 1 – as Dallas visited Tom Brady and the defending champs in Dak Prescott’s first regular-season appearance since suffering a devastating ankle injury last October.

Dallas dropped its season-opener to Tampa Bay in heartbreaking fashion (L, 31-29), but since then, the Cowboys have looked phenomenal – highlighted by Prescott and company entering Sunday riding a four-game winning streak, and their offense racking up 40.3 PPG across the last three.

On the other hand, New England has stumbled out to a somewhat underwhelming start with rookie QBMac Jones under center – considering the Patriots currently sit at 2-3, and their offense ranks 26 th in both scoring and total yardage (19.2 PPG, 319.8 YPG).

I’ll lay the points with Dallas here, as two of New England’s three losses came by three points or less to start the year – but I doubt the Patriots will be able to match the Cowboys’ dominant offensive presence in this matchup.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

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The Cowboys will hit the road on Sunday afternoon favored by roughly a field goal over the Patriots in Foxborough, which is just the second time New England has been an underdog this season.

The total for Sunday’s matchup is stationed just north of OU 50 at most shops – which marks the highest number set for a Patriots’ game so far this year.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC East vs. AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, October 17, 2021
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium
  • Location: Foxboro, Massachusetts
  • TV-Time: CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET

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Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-1
  • ATS: 5-0
  • O/U: 4-1
  • ATS - Home: 3-0
  • ATS - Away: 2-0

After completely falling apart following Prescott’s devastating ankle injury last season, Dallas immediately faced an enormous test to kick off the new year – as the Cowboys begrudgingly ventured to Tampa Bay for their Week 1 matchup against the Bucs.’

The Cowboys lost their season-opener to Tampa, but I would still argue they passed the test with relatively flying colors – considering Dallas traded blows through a back-and-forth shootout against the defending champs, and the Bucs’ narrowly escaped with a victory on a walk-off field-goal (L, 31-29).

Since dropping their opener, the Cowboys have mounted an impressive four-game winning streak consisting of victories over the Chargers, Eagles, Panthers, and Giants – which is primarily a testament to their offense sharing the league-lead in scoring and ranking second in total yardage (34 PPG, 439 YPG).

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-3
  • ATS: 2-3
  • O/U: 1-4
  • ATS - Home: 1-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

On the surface, New England’s 2-3 start to the new season doesn’t appear all that disappointing – considering Bill Belichick selected a young quarterback in the first round of the latest draft, and initial growing pains are always to be expected.

New England’s opening stretch of matchups doesn’t indicate much growth from its young core though, considering the Patriots’ only victories came against ailing Jets and Texans squads – and their offense ranks near the bottom of nearly every statistical category (19.2 PPG, 319.8 YPG).

The New England Patriots have won four straight games when facing the NFC East. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Dallas Cowboys

  • Record: 4-1
  • Division Standing: 1st - NFC East
  • Points Scored: 170
  • Points Allowed: 117
  • PS/G: 34 (2nd)
  • PA/G: 23.4 (14th)

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 2-3
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 96
  • Points Allowed: 92
  • PS/G: 19.2 (26th)
  • PA/G: 18.4 (5th)

Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Dak Prescott - QB (122/165, 1,368 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT)
  • DAL: Ezekiel Elliott - RB (85 carries, 452 yards, 5 TD)
  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (135/190, 1,243 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT)
  • NWE: Matt Judon - LB (20 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 FR)

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Betting Conclusion

After picking up a fourth consecutive victory against the Giants last week, the Cowboys will travel to Foxborough as short road favorites over the Patriots in Week 6 – marking the fourth straight game Dallas has been favored in.

I’ll lay the short total with Dallas here, as New England simply hasn’t shown enough offensive firepower to warrant backing at such a cheap price tag – but I still expect Belichick’s defense to make Dallas earn every single yard, which is why I’m also backing Prescott to utilize his legs a little more than usual throughout Sunday’s affair.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • New England has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last nine home games.
  • New England has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games.
  • Dallas has lost 10 of its last 13 road games.
  • Dallas has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last nine games when facing New England.
  • Dallas has covered the spread in four of its last six road games.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
  • Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.