Sept. 25, 2021
NFL Super Bowl 56 Betting Picks
The 2021 NFL regular season is expected to begin in Week 1 on Thursday, Sept. 9 and conclude in Week 18 on Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022, as 32 teams will look to earn a spot in Super Bowl 56.
All teams will play 17 games and the best 14 teams will meet in the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs.
VegasInsider.com is here to provide you with all the picks, predictions, and odds to help your handicapping for the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs and Super Bowl 56.
NFL Playoffs Betting Resources
The 2021-22 NFL Playoffs will begin on Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022, with four rounds of betting action, which concludes with Super Bowl 56.
Wild Card Round: Jan. 15-16 (12 Teams, 6 Games) Divisional Round: Jan. 22-23 (8 Teams, 4 Games) Conference Championships: Jan. 30 (4 Teams, 2 Games) Super Bowl 56: Feb. 13 (2 Teams, 1 Game)
NFL Playoffs Betting Predictions
Looking for a wagering forecast on the Super Bowl, or maybe you want to set a futures bet? Our betting handicappers have their picks for the 2021-22 NFL season! Check out the consensus NFL predictions from our expert handicappers to get you ready for the upcoming season!
Defense will be key to the Steelers continued success, even though they are transitioning in the secondary. Najee Harris at +550 is a favorite of mine and I'm betting he shines in a big way this season, behind a offense that will run till its done.
Aaron Rodgers almost retired in the offseason, but now he’s on a mission - Super Bowl or nothing. His energy will lead the Packers to the NFC Championship. Kansas City is in my opinion the most explosive offensive team in the NFL behind Patrick Mahomes, and with the defense continuing to uptrend I think the AFC is for them to take. Still, Aaron Rodgers is on a mission and his energy will lead the Packers to a Super Bowl victory.
The champs will have a bullseye on their backs and they play a tough schedule. Asking them to win 12 or more games is asking a lot. Road games against the Rams and Patriots in the first month both figure to be tough.
Rookie running backs are often able to immediately thrive, and Najee Harris should be given a great opportunity to do so. Jaelan Phillips should start and he's got both speed and power. A linebacker has won the defensive rookie award 10 of the past 18 years, so consider him as well.
Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen are reportedly receiving more action, but Patrick Mahomes is favored for good reason. He should have better protection this year and that will lead to huge numbers. Until proven otherwise, the Chiefs are still the best team in the AFC. As long as Mahomes remains healthy, they likely have no serious competition in their division.
The Rams will win the NFC. Stafford hit the jackpot. Not only does he move from Detroit to Los Angeles, he steps into a great situation. Tough division but the well-coached Rams should finish on top. The Chiefs couldn't get it done last year, but they won't be denied twice in a row.
With Drew Brees retiring and Atlanta's Julio Jones traded to Tennessee, Tampa Bay is going to have a much easier time in the NFC South this season. The Bucs don't have any weaknesses and I like the pieces they added in the draft.
Pittsburgh still has one of the NFL's top-five defenses. Contrary to popular belief, Ben Roethlisberger is off a solid season in which he threw for 3,803 yards with a 33-to-10 TD-INT ratio. He was victimized by drops galore when the team slumped in December. Although the offensive line is a concern, the Steelers have a major upgrade at RB in rookie first-round pick Najee Harris.
With Jones gone to the Titans, Pitts is going to get even more targets from Matt Ryan. Calvin Ridley is more than ready to step into the No. 1 WR role and Russell Gage is off a breakout campaign. Pitts will thrive and put up huge numbers.
In a much watered-down NFC East a season ago, the Eagles could only get to four wins. Adding another game to the schedule might just mean an extra loss. Things do not look pretty at the Linc, not after meddling from owner Jeffrey Lurie and GM Howie Roseman losing his magic touch made one-time miracle worker HC Doug Pederson decide that enough was enough, and we wonder if successor Nick Sirianni knows what he's getting into. (The war drums are also already beating on WIP after the Birds' slow preseason start.) Will what was one of the NFL's worst offenses last year really upgrade with Jalen Hurts a risky option at QB?
Bravo to the Steelers for bucking the know-it-all pundits who say there's no reason to draft a running back in the first round anymore. Najee Harris delivers the dimension the Pittsburgh offense has been missing the past few years as he tries to follow in the footsteps of another big Bama back, Derrick Henry.
A three-peat NFL rushing champion? Not since Emmittt Smith. Before that Earl Campbell and before that Jim Brown. That's high-rent company if Henry can join the club this fall, which ought to put him at the top of the MVP mix.
We're on the Titans kick here after pegging Henry for MVP. Adding Julio Jones to the arsenal and a possible upgraded defense gives shrewd HC Mike Vrabel the ammo he needs to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC. It wasn't Covid, but good, old-fashioned injuries that wiped out the 49ers last season. When last healthy they outclassed the rest of the NFC in 2019. A healthy Jimmy G is still probably a better option at this stage than Trey Lance, but it's up front on offense and defense where the Niners can still dominate. As long as the physios aren't busy like last year I like them in the Super Bowl. What the Niners should have had two years ago, they finally pocket this season. As long as they stay healthy, that is.
Don't be mislead, the Jets are a long way from being any good. Najee Harris is a power runner that will help the Steelers and Big Ben. I should say Tom Brady will win MVP, but I will also take the guy that is the 'Most Valuable' which I believe is Chase Young on the defensive side for Washington.
Denver is a very good football team. If they get average quarterback production, they should have no trouble getting to nine wins. Justin Fields looked good in his preseason debut and should play at some point this season.
The Bucs should be in the hunt for the Super Bowl again this season. If Tom Brady is healthy then he should be the pick. The Pats should be better this season if they get production from their quarterbacks. If the Bucs stay healthy, they could be better than last year’s team and Brady faces Bill in the Super Bowl. Tampa plays in a weak division and should have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Brady is still the best quarterback in the NFL.
The Broncos have a ton of talent at the skill position and their non-conference schedule is with the NFC East, which is not a real powerhouse of a division this year. They have good chance of getting to 10 wins with a few conference victories.
I think Nagy will eventually pull Dalton, giving Justin the starting role. He is a mobile QB who can throw and gain yards in the air and ground. This set of unique skills have been successful in getting the Rookie of the Year Award. With all the news in the off season around Aaron Rodgers, it just makes sense that he will have a stellar season. In addition, he has the weapons on offense to get him an MVP Award too.
The Bills have all the pieces this year to make another run. The QB and defense for the Bills are no longer a question mark for this team, plus they are very well coached. They came close last year and this year they get it done. To support my MVP pick in Aaron Rodgers, it just makes sense that it will be the Green Bay Packers to get to the Super Bowl. With a weak division the door is wide open.
However, its Buffalo's season this year. What makes me very bullish on the Bills is their defense, especially the secondary. Coupled with a very capable QB, this is the team to win it all.
Expect opponents to be better prepared for Justin Herbert following his rookie success while the Chargers are stuck in a tough division as they transition to a new coaching staff. The first six weeks on the schedule features a collection of some of the best teams in the NFL and a slow start likely knocks the season projection down for the Chargers rather quickly.
While quarterbacks do have an inherent advantage in the awards voting, it is a difficult rookie group to project playing time for this ahead of the season. The players most likely to play significantly are in the worst situations and while Mac Jones, Trey Lance, or Justin Fields could be strong candidates on good teams, it isn’t clear that opportunity will be there. Harris seems likely to be a key piece of Pittsburgh’s offense and has a clear path to having a productive season if he stays healthy.
Repeat winners are rather rare as there has not been a back-to-back winner since Peyton Manning in 2008-2009 as Rodgers seems overpriced coming off a tense off-season. Mahomes is a deserving favorite but the Chiefs might lean on the running game more this season and don’t figure to be in as many close games. Allen remains a serious rushing threat as 500 yards on the ground along with 10 touchdowns seems possible to boost his case and Buffalo’s schedule seems to present a favorable path for another highly productive season.
The AFC has several viable contenders this season but the Ravens should have a good opportunity to land a favorable position with possible slides from Cleveland and Pittsburgh in the North. Baltimore has a tough schedule but most of the difficult games are at home and the Ravens looked like a serious contender late last season. Baltimore had a massive statistical edge in the divisional loss at Buffalo as well with a 101-yard interception return touchdown the difference.
The Buccaneers have a unique advantage that few defending Super Bowl champions have returning to a 2nd place schedule, a path that grades as one of the weakest in the entire NFL. The NFC South no longer looks like a great division and most of the other top NFC threats lurk in a loaded NFC West where it will be more difficult to earn the NFC’s top seed out of.
This is not as crazy as it might sound. First off, the division is still not good. Eagles, WFT, and Giants will all struggle and if they can pick up four of six, we just have to find five more wins to push. The Bucs are most likely a loss, but we know Tom Brady and company do not care about week 1-4. They like to feel teams out, and like last season I could see them struggling a bit. If the Cowboys still lose, they have a very manageable schedule still. Saints with no Drew Brees, the Raiders, Falcons at hoem, Broncos at home, Panthers at home, and they will be visiting San Diego. A 10-win season for the Cowboys is very manageable.
Kyle Pitts winning the Rookie of the Year is simply the value play. It's hard to predict how much playing time some of the QB's will get. I could see all of the rookie QB's not playing every game, but Pitts is looking to become a playmaker for Matt Ryan and the Falcons right from the start. He has too much value to pass on.
Again, CMC is purely value here. MVP is always a QB and they typically get the best odds, mostly because they touch the ball on every play. The Panthers give McCaffery the ball at least 15 times a game, and with that being said he will have plenty to impress for MVP voting. If the Panthers can have a somewhat decent-to-mediocre season it will be McCaffery.
Chiefs +250 vs. Buccaneers +275 , again. Chalky, but until someone in the NFL can stop Tom Brady he will be back again. They brought back everyone on the team. The Chiefs just have the best athlete on the field mst every night they suit up, after back to back superbowl trips, a third one is not out of the question.
The Chiefs at +450 to win the Super Bowl is my pick. Andy Reid will come back and adjust to how they lose the last game. It doesn't matter who they line up in the backfield, they will have success. Kelce, Hill, Mahomes... just too many playmakers to keep away from a secnd superbowl in three years.
Tua has a tough task ahead of him with a very weak offensive line protecting him. The Dolphins haven't done enough to put him in a good spot. I don't see more than nine wins on the schedule.
Cornerback is a spot where seasoned collegiate players can step in and prove valuable right away. The Broncos defense should be excellent this year, and Surtain looks ready to excel from day one. Josh Allen took a huge step forward last year in Buffalo, and I think he has another big season this year. The Bills have an easy division, and there are plenty of weak secondaries for Allen to go against on the Bills schedule.
I think Allen has a big season, and I like the talent around him a lot. The Bills have a high upside. The Green Bay Packers had a wild offseason, but in the end their team is better than they were last season. Aaron Rodgers has more weapons around him, and the Packers were so close a year ago. I think the veteran quarterback gets it done here for the Packers to win the Super Bowl. Green Bay's defense is good enough, and their offense is going to be top notch.
The Chargers are making the playoffs. Justin Herbert takes new heights in sophomore season and by eliminating the worst clock manager in NFL history and replacing him with a dynamic head coach, I see great things for the Chargers.
I like Ja'Marr Chase to have a huge season reunited with his QB in Cincy, and Micah Parsons is going to make a huge impact for the Dallas defense, but it's got to be a QB and I think Justin Fields has the best shot at making the biggest difference on his team. Fields is accurate, reads the defenses well despite pre-draft notes on him, and he can get out and run and make those ESPN highlights and wow the talking heads.
Josh Allen has all the makings with the coaching staff, talent on offense, blockers, and swagger remaining from 2020 to be MVP. As crazy as it sounds, I think he'll have better stats in 2021 and the Bills make the Super Bowl, and the Bills win their first Super Bowl.
I'm not buying what this Eagles team is selling, and feel they will be worse than many people realize. It starts at the top and the organization continues to make very bad personnel decisions.
The Steelers RB Najee Harris is a strong player coming into a strong organization, and expected to be used a lot and has already shown good skills as a receiver too which means huge yardage tallies if he stays healthy this year.
I know Patrick Mahomes is considered the front runner and a popular choice, but still I must select him because here you have an incredibly talented QB on a strong team. He and his teammates are hungry after falling short of the ultimate prize last season. That's why I also like the Chiefs in the AFC, and the Rams. The Rams strengthened with offseason acquisitions and are very well coached. Kansas City to win the Super Bowl however, as they have the league's best player with a bolstered offensive line which will make them tough to beat.
Vikings bounce back with much improved defensive play to go with playmakers Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson, who are among the best at their respective positions.
Trevor Lawrence is a ready-made star with loads of underrated receiving weapons. He also gets to face two of the weakest defenses in the NFL, Texans and Titans, twice. Josh Allen produced superstar numbers last year and has the Bills on the cusp of reaching the Super Bowl.
The combination of Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey pushes the Rams over the top. I like the Bills to challenge them in the Super Bowl as well.
It's commonly overlooked is just how good Ryan Fitzpatrick was in 2020 in leading Miami to its 10-6 season. He was fifth in ESPN’s QBR last season. Even if Tua Tagovailoa jumps to near league average in QBR this season, that is still going to a be a significant drop off from 2020 and put the Dolphins in difficult position to reach this total.
Of all the rookie quarterbacks, Lance is easily in best position to win right away and Lance has the ability to put up highlight plays that will stand out even if he plays less than 16 games. Two things stand out about the MVP award. It goes to quarterbacks on good teams and it is somewhat narrative driven award. Matthew Stafford can put up big stats on one of the league’s top teams while having the narrative push him over the top.
Following the script of the 2012 49ers, San Francisco turns to a young, mobile quarterback to further unlock its offensive weapons and make a Super Bowl run. However, a revamped offensive line solidifies the Chiefs as clear Super Bowl favorites and gives them the edge in this Super Bowl 54 rematch prediction.
Super Bowl 56 Betting Resources
Super Bowl 56 Betting Odds
Bettors can place early wagers on who will win Super Bowl 56 from California and BetMGM has great sign-up deals for new users in states that offer legal online betting and you can bet on the 2022 NFL finale at all of their locations.
2021-22 AFC Championship Odds
2021-22 NFC Championship Odds
Super Bowl 56 Winning Conference Odds
2021 NFL Pre-Season Markets
Least/Most Regular Season Wins Odds
Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change
Win Total Specials
NFL Betting History
Through the first 55 Super Bowls, the NFC has gone 28-27 against th AFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers both have five.
Favorites have gone 36-18 straight up and 29-21-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The largest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the first underdog to win a Super Bowl since the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
Super Bowl Results - 2017-2021