New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions, Odds, Picks

Dec. 18, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The New England Patriots (9-4) take on the Indianapolis Colts (7-6) at Lucas Oil Stadium for a key AFC contest in Week 15 on Saturday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on NFL Network.

Score Prediction

Colts ML (-125) at Treasure Island

Colts -1.5 (-110) at Treasure Island

Over 45 (-110) at WynnBet

Best Bets

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions

The Patriots are coming off a bye, which is about the only thing which could cool them off lately. Even a frigid, blustery, windy and snowy evening in Buffalo on Monday night in Week 13 couldn’t ice the Pats, who powered through the elements for a 14-10 win against the Bills in a key AFC East Division battle.

The Patriots have picked up seven straight wins and covers, and all of it suddenly it seems like old times. I expect Nick Gardenia to be hiding under a bed in the guest house waiting for Glenda to bring him food. OK, I am old, and hardly anybody remember that movie reference. If you do, hit me up and let’s chat parachute pants.

Anyway, the last time the Patriots didn’t cover was Oct. 17 was a 35-29 overtime loss against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6. They’re on fire.

Speaking of on fire, the Colts offense has rolled up 30 or more points in seven of the past eight games dating back to a 31-25 overtime loss on Oct. 11 in Week 5 in Baltimore. Remember when people were saying Carson Wentz was done, and a bust? Yeah, not club is slowly losing members.

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

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New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC South
  • Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
  • Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • TV-Time: NFLN - 8:15 p.m. ET

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-4
  • ATS: 9-4
  • O/U: 6-7
  • ATS - Away: 5-1

The Patriots started out 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS through the first four games, and it was looking like rookie QB Mac Jones might not have been the correct choice to start. The offense was flagging, averaging just 17.8 PPG, with the UNDER cashing in the first four outings. Things picked up a little into mid-October, and the Patriots were 2-4 ATS through the first six contests. The Cowboys showdown in OT really seemed to flip a switch for Jones.

The offense went for 24 or more points in eight consecutive outings from Week 5 through 12 before the ice and cold shut down the pass game. In fact, Jones attempted just three passes in that North Pole game in Orchard Park.

The OVER was 6-2 in the eight games prior to the Buffalo game, and you can mostly avoid that game when trying to figure out totals. The OVER is 6-0 in their past six games on a field turf surface, while going 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning record and 9-2-1 in the past 12 appearances on a Saturday. The OVER is also 12-5 in the past 17 following a bye week, too.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-6
  • ATS: 8-5
  • O/U: 8-5
  • ATS - Home: 3-4

The Colts knocked around the punching bag Houston Texans by a 31-0 count last week, covering a 10-point number as the UNDER connected. Don’t get used to that type of defense from the Colts, however. They had allowed at least 15 points in the previous six outings. It’s all about offense for Indy, scoring 30 or more points in three straight games, and seven of the previous eight. The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven overall.

After an 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS start, the Colts really seemed to pull things together in Miami in Week 4. The Colts won outright as 2.5-point underdogs, kicking off a 4-0 ATS run. They’re 7-3 ATS since.

Indianapolis is also coming off a bye, and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games following a bye, while going 19-9 ATS in the past 28 against teams with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight against AFC foes.

RB Jonathan Taylor and the Colts have covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 9-4
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 350
  • Points Allowed: 200
  • PS/G: 26.9 (10th)
  • PA/G: 15.4 (1st)

Inside the Stats - Indianapolis Colts

  • Record: 7-6
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 371
  • Points Allowed: 283
  • PS/G: 28.5 (3rd)
  • PA/G: 21.8 (9th)

Key Players to Watch

  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (270/384, 2,869 yards, 16 TD, 8 INT)
  • NWE: Damien Harris - RB (164 carries, 754 yards, 9 TD)
  • IND: Carson Wentz - QB (266/420, 2,948 yards, 22 TD, 5 INT)
  • IND: Jonathan Taylor - RB (241 carries, 1,348 yards, 16 TD)

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Conclusion

Both of these teams are super rested, as both enter off a bye. The Patriots enter Week 15 in a three- way tie at 9-4, holding tiebreakers with the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans, but they obviously need to keep their foot on the pedal.

The Patriots defense has been just as big of a part of the team’s resurgence as the play of Jones, if not more so. The defense ranks third in the NFL with just 310.0 total yards per game allowed, and 195.5 passing yards allowed. They’re also No. 1 in the league with 15.4 PPG. If they have an Achilles’ heel, it’s stopping the run, as they allowed 114.5 yards per game on the ground, checking in 19th. That’s the specialty of the Colts, and you can expect a heavy diet of Taylor.

It’s offense vs. defense here, as Indy puts up 28.5 PPG to rank third in the league, and they’re second with 151.7 yards per game on the ground. Their defense can hold their own, too. I think we have a higher-scoring game with the Colts scratching out a one-score game in the end, really throwing a monkey wrench into the AFC playoff picture.

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends

  • New England has covered the spread in seven straight games.
  • Indianapolis has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games.
  • New England has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last 10 road games.

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