Last Updated Sep 18, 2022, 1:09 PM

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 2 of the NFL season will resume on Sunday afternoon with what is expected to be a competitive AFC battle between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. Coverage begins from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.


The Steelers hit the road for their Week 1 matchup against Cincinnati as seven-point underdogs, which was tied for the widest spread on the board with Texans-Colts, as Houston also hit the road as seven-point underdogs against Indianapolis last Sunday. However, neither contest played out as expected, as the Texans escaped Indy with a 20-20 tie, while the Steelers scratched and clawed their way to a 23-20 OT victory against the reigning AFC champs.

On the other hand, New England received far more love from the oddsmakers heading into Week 1, as the Patriots were just three-point road underdogs in Miami last week. However, last week’s showing was arguably their worst offensive performance of the Mac Jones era thus far, as the Patriots scored just seven points on 271 total yards and turned the ball over three times in an ugly double-digit loss to the Dolphins.

I’ll back New England here, as the Steelers’ Week 1 win over Cincy was a bit fluky, as the Bengals’ offense scored just 20 PTS on 432 total yards thanks to Joe Burrow’s five turnovers in the contest (4 INT, 1 FL); but to give credit where credit is due, a few of those turnovers were caused by stellar defensive plays by Pittsburgh. Despite their enormous advantage in the turnover department, Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers’ offense still barely escaped with a victory in Week 1, and I doubt we’ll see them get quite as many freebies against Bill Belichick’s squad in Week 2, especially in the absence of reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt.

Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Steelers 16
Best Bet: Patriots -2 (-110)


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Date: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022
Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC North
Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET


The Patriots finished second in the AFC East with a record of 10-7 last year, earning the second Wild Card spot in the conference and a postseason rematch against the division champs in Buffalo. However, the Bills quickly asserted a 27-3 lead in the first half of their playoff rubber match, and New England simply couldn’t stop the bleeding in the ugly 47-17 loss.

The end-result was ultimately disappointing, but overall, New England still played excellent in Mac Jones’ rookie campaign under-center, as the Patriots’ offense finished the year ranked seventh in scoring and tenth in yardage per play in their second season following the departure of Tom Brady (26.6 PPG, 5.7 YPP).

However, New England’s identity has always resided with its defense under Belichick, and things weren’t any different last season, as the Patriots’ defense finished the year ranked third in points allowed and seventh in total yardage (19.4 PPG, 320 YPG), which should almost automatically thrust them into playoff contention assuming they aren’t an absolute disaster on the offensive side of the ball.

The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against New England (Getty Images)


Pittsburgh was the heaviest moneyline-underdog to pull off an upset in Week 1, as the Steelers cashed +240 ML tickets with their stunning 23-20 OT road victory over the Bengals this past Sunday, however, things will be much more difficult without the presence of their top defensive player moving forward, as Watt will miss at least four weeks with a pectoral injury after officially getting moved to IR on Thursday.

The Steelers finished second in the AFC North with a record of 9-7-1 last season, which narrowly edged a handful of squads for the final playoff spot in the conference. However, the Big Ben era in Pittsburgh inevitably came to a screeching halt with a blowout loss to Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs (L, 42-21).

It shouldn’t be all that difficult to match the Steelers’ offensive production in Roethlisberger’s last few campaigns though, highlighted by Pittsburgh ranking 21st in scoring and 28th in yards per play last season (20.2 PPG, 4.8 YPP); with four of their nine wins coming in matchups they scored 20 PTS or less in.


  • The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Steelers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of New England's last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Pittsburgh's last six games.
  • The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Pittsburgh.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Pittsburgh's last six games against New England.
  • The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Pittsburgh are 6-0-1 SU in their last seven home games.
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