Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Week 5 of the NFL season continues Sunday afternoon as the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC battle at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, New York on Sunday. Coverage begins at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

Updated on 04/28/2024

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PREDICTION

The Bills head into this Week 5 matchup looking to exact a little revenge. The Steelers came to Western New York last season in Week 1 with Buffalo entering the year with a lot of pomp and circumstance. Pittsburgh ended up shocking Buffalo 23-16, winning outright as a 6.5-point underdog as the UNDER easily cashed. It was one of just three losses in 10 home games, including the playoffs, for the Bills last season.

Of course, Pittsburgh's win was with future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger under center. In just four games, the Steelers have already made a chance under center. Last season's backup in Buffalo, QB Mitchell Trubisky, started the first four games, going 1-3 SU/1-2-1 ATS.

Head coach Mike Tomlin saw enough midway through last week's game against the New York Jets, going to the bullpen for a spark with rookie QB Kenny Pickett. The rookie did toss a pick on his first pass attempt, but he also ran for a pair of score and gave the offense a little excitement. Ultimately it was the same result, Pittsburgh lost 24-20 to the New York Jets. But Pickett brings an excitement that Trubisky just hasn't, or can't.

Pickett gets to make his first NFL start in front of the Bills Mafia, a rather hostile environment of folks liquored up on Labatt Blue, Genny Cream Ale with bruised bodies from table diving. They'll be loud and unwelcoming to a new guy just making his way. It won't be pretty for the Steelers.

The Steelers are underdogs by 14 or more points for the first time since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970.

Score Prediction: Bills 26, Steelers 13
Best Bet: Steelers +14 (-108)
Best Bet: UNDER 46.5 (-108)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ODDS

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PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022
Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Buffalo, New York
Time-TV: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET

PITTSBURGH STEELERS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Steelers have scored 20 or fewer points in regulation in every game so far this season, including a 23-20 overtime win at Cincinnati in Week 1, the team's only victory and cover, by the way.

Pittsburgh ranks 30th in the NFL in total yards per game with 278.8, while doing slightly better in passing yards per game with 181.5, checking in 28th. If it doesn't anything remotely well on offense, it's run the ball, going for 97.3 yards per game thanks to sophomore RB Najee Harris. The Steelers are averaging a pedestrian 18.5 PPG.

On defense, the Steelers are also struggling, allowing 22.5 PPG to rank in the middle of the pack. They allow 383.0 total yards per game, though, and 131.5 rushing yards per game, both 24th in the league.

Pittsburgh is just 1-3-1 ATS in the past five games overall, while going 2-5 ATS in the past seven road games. The UNDER is also 44-19-1 in the past 64 games on the road, while going 25-10-1 in the previous 36 games in the month of October.

BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ANALYSIS

It looks like a slam-dunk play for the Bills, but laying two touchdowns against a Tomlin-coached team is a lot. He'll have his team ready, and he is usually never outcoached.

Even with that 21-19 loss in Miami in Week 3, the Bills still have ridiculous numbers all over the board. They're 3rd in the NFL in total yards per game (412.5), 2nd in passing yards per game (297.0) and 5th in points scored (28.5 PPG). On defense, the numbers are equally impressive, if not more so. Buffalo is 2nd in the NFL in both total yards per game allowed (234.5) and points scored (14.5 PPG), while ranking tops in passing yards per game (150.8). That's an ominous sign for an NFL rooking making his first start.

The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five games at home, while going 9-1-2 ATS in the past 12 against teams with a losing overall record. For the totals, the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven games in the month of October for Buffalo, and the UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven in this series.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING TRENDS

• Steelers are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five games overall
• Steelers are 2-5 ATS in the past seven road games
• Bills are 6-2-2 ATS in the past 10 games overall
• Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five home games
• UNDER is 44-19-1 in the past 64 road games for the Steelers
• UNDER is 25-10-1 in the past 36 October games for the Steelers
• UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven October games for the Bills
• UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven meetings

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish