Last Updated Oct 19, 2022, 4:15 PM

NFL - Total Talk - Week 6

The 2022 National Football League regular season heads into Week 5, or slightly past the quarter-pole in the 17-game season. Head coach Matt Rhule was relieved of his duties this week, so it will be interesting to see how the Carolina Panthers respond on Sunday in a road game with interim coach Steve Wilks at the helm. Can he get the offense going?

The UNDER continues to dominate through the early portion of the season going 47-32-1 (58.8%) to date, and especially so at night. The UNDER is now 11-5 (68.8%) in 16 primetime games.

Thursday Night Football

Washington at Chicago: The UNDER has hit in four of the first five Thursday Night Football games, and the OVER was never tested in last week's snoozer between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos. In fact, there wasn't even a touchdown scored in the 12-9 OT win by the Colts.

When last week's game ended, and fans started seeing the Amazon Prime Video promos for this game, people figured we would see another bummer in this NFC battle.

Washington was on its way to a possible OVER, as well as a win, but it was picked off at the goal-line last week against Tennessee in a 21-17 loss and UNDER result. The UNDER has cashed in three in a row for the Commanders.

Chicago has scored 23 or fewer points in all five outings, and the UNDER might be a regular occurrence if not for a shabby defense. The Bears have allowed 29, 20, 20 and 27 in the past four games, hitting the OVER in two of the past three. And if trends are any indication, the OVER has cashed in each of the past four meetings between these teams, so perhaps this TNF game will surprise.


Division Over-Under Notes

We had six divisional matchups in Week 5, with the OVER-UNDER splitting 3-3. While that might not seem like much, the UNDER was 18-4 (81.8%) in the first four weeks. The UNDER is now 21-7 (75.0%) through the first five weeks of NFL.

In Week 6, we have four divisional matchups on tap, including the Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, and the Monday Night Football game between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers (see below).

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The Jaguars managed just six points in a home loss to the Houston Texans last week, it's first UNDER since Week 2, a 24-0 home win and UNDER result against these Colts at TIAA Field in Jacksonville.

The Colts have hit the UNDER in all five games to date, scoring 12, 17, 20, 0 and 20 so far. In fact, Indianapolis has ended up going without a touchdown in two of the past four outings. Indianapolis is optimistic RB Jonathan Taylor will be able to return in Week 6, but he played in that Week 2 outing, and still managed a donut.


Arizona at Seattle: The Cardinals have cashed the UNDER in four straight games since an OVER in Week 1. The Cards were dropped 20-17 at home against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5, and Arizona has averaged just 18.3 PPG in the past three games. It has just one prior divisional game this season, hitting the UNDER against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3.

NFL fans laughed when QB Geno Smith was named as the successor to the departed QB Russell Wilson. Smith and the Seahawks are the ones laughing now, as the Seattle offense is good for 32, 48 and 23 across the past three weekends. And the D is allowed 39, 45 and 27, as Seattle has cashed the OVER in each of the past three outings.


Conference Angles

We had eight conference matchups for the second consecutive week, and for the second week in a row, the OVER-UNDER split at 4-4. That's now four consecutive weeks where the OVER has been equal to or greater than the UNDER in conference games this season.

In Week 6, we have five more conference matchups, including the Commanders-Bears TNF game (see above). Through five weeks the OVER is 22-21 (51.9%) in conference play.

San Francisco at Atlanta: The 49ers head back to the Eastern Time Zone for the second straight week. San Francisco whipped up on Carolina 37-15 last week, pushing head coach Matt Rhule to the unemployment line in the process. It was a rare OVER, the first in five games this season for the Niners.

The Falcons had hit the OVER in the first three weekends, but the UNDER has cashed in the past two outings, averaging just 19.0 PPG on offense while allowing 20.5 PPG on defense.

The UNDER has hit in five of the past six games on the road for the Niners, while the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven at home for the Falcons.


New England at Cleveland: The Patriots blanked the visiting Detroit Lions last week, 29-0, as QB Bailey Zappe won his first NFL start. The UNDER is 2-1 in New England's three road games for the Patriots, with the Pats allowed 20.3 PPG in those outings, while scoring 16.0 PPG.

The Browns have cashed the OVER in four of the first five outings, including last weekend's 30-28 loss against the Chargers. In three home games, the OVER has cashed in each of the outings.

The UNDER is 11-5 in the past 16 on the road for the Patriots, too, while going 24-8 in the past 32 on a natural grass surface. The Browns had hit the UNDER at a 7-1 clip in the past eight against teams with a losing overall record.


(Getty Images)

Carolina at L.A. Rams: The beleaguered Panthers head to SoFi to battle the defending Super Bowl champs, and Wilks makes his first appearance as the head honcho. Carolina has scored 15, 16, 22, 16 and 24 in the first five games, and the team has managed two defensive touchdowns and three offensive TDs in the past three outings. The UNDER has cashed in three of the past four outings.

Carolina is expected to be without QB Baker Mayfield (ankle), as he suffered an injury against the 49ers in Week 5. QB P.J. Walker is expected to make the start.

Los Angeles is coming off a 22-10 loss against Dallas, it's second straight loss. The Rams are averaging just 9.5 PPG, and they have scored just one total touchdown during the span. The UNDER has hit in three straight, and four of five games overall.


Buffalo at Kansas City: This is the marquee matchup of the weekend, as we get a rematch of the AFC Divisional Playoff game which ended in overtime at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium last January.

Buffalo's offense got back on track in a big way in Week 5 against the Steelers, racking up 38 points. The UNDER cashed for the third straight game, though, as the D yielded just three points, the third time in five outings the Bills have allowed 10 or fewer points.

Kansas City gutted out a 30-29 win on Monday night, and now faces the short week. After back-to-back UNDER results for the Chiefs in Weeks 2-3, the Chiefs have averaged 35.5 PPG, while allowing 30.0 PPG in the past two, hitting the OVER in each.


Non-Conference Angles

The Week 5 schedule saw four AFC-NFC matchups, and the OVER was an impressive 3-1. On the season, the UNDER is now 8-7-1 (53.3%) across 16 intra-conference matchups. In Week 6 we have five AFC-NFC matchups.

Cincinnati at New Orleans: The Bengals are one of just two teams to go 5-for-5 to the UNDER so far this season. Cincinnati was edged 19-17 in Baltimore in Week 5 on SNF, and the Bengals are averaging 20.3 PPG in three road outings so far this season. In its only game against an NFC opponent, Week 2 in Dallas, the Bengals were edged 20-17 in an UNDER.

The Saints racked up a season-high 39 points in a shootout with the Seahawks in the Dome last Sunday. The OVER has hit in the past two games, with New Orleans averaging 32.0 PPG with QB Andy Dalton at the helm, and hybrid TE/QB Taysom Hill registering four total touchdowns against the Seahawks. The defense has allowed 20 or more points in all five outings to date, so perhaps the Bengals can finally get it going in the Big Easy.


Baltimore at N.Y. Giants: The Ravens hit the road where the offense has had a lot more success. Not only is Baltimore 2-0 SU/ATS on the road this season, it is averaging 30.5 PPG in two away games while allowing 26 point last time out in New England in Week 3.

The Giants stunned the Packers in London last week, hitting their first OVER of the season after the UNDER started 3-0-1 in the first four weekends. The 27 points scored was a season high. Prior to that, the G-Men had scored 20, 16, 19 and 21.


N.Y. Jets at Green Bay: The Jets have cashed the OVER in each of the past two games, while going 3-1 in the past four games overall. New York rolled up 40 points last week against the Miami Dolphins in a win, the highest point total for Gang Green since scoring 42 points in a win Oct. 14, 2018 against the Indianapolis Colts.

The Packers have cashed the OVER in each of the past two games after hitting the UNDER in the first three contests. Green Bay is averaging 24.5 PPG on offense, while allowing 25.5 PPG in the past two outings. In its only game against the AFC, Green Bay hit the OVER against New England in a 27-24 OT win in Week 4 at Lambeau.


Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh: The Buccaneers cashed the UNDER last week against the Atlanta Falcons, and the total has now gone low in four of five games overall for Atlanta. The Bucs have scored 21, 31, 12, 20 and 19 in five games overall, while the defense has allowed 15 or fewer points in four of five contests. However, the only OVER result was in its only game against an AFC foe, losing 41-31 to the Chiefs in Week 4 on SNF.

The Steelers went to Buffalo allowed a 98-yard touchdown early in the first quarter to set the tone. The OVER-UNDER is 1-1 in two home games at Acrisure Stadium for the Black and Gold so far. Pittsburgh is averaging 17.0 PPG in two games in the Steel City, while allowing 20.5 PPG in those outings.


Minnesota at Miami: The Vikings opened the season with two UNDER results, but the OVER has hit in each of the past three, going for 28 or more points in each of those outings. The defense has allowed 22 or more points in four straight games, too.

The Dolphins lost QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) two weeks ago, and the injury made tons of headlines. He missed last week's game, so QB Teddy Bridgewater started. The latter suffered a concussion and/or elbow injury, forcing seventh-round draft pick QB Skylar Thompson into the game. The OVER hit in that blowout loss to the Jets, and Thompson might be tasked with another start in this one.

The Dolphins have allowed 40, 27 and 38 in three games on the road, but just 19 and 7 in two home games. Miami will have to rally around its defense again at Hard Rock Stadium with the team facing injury concerns under center.


Primetime Notes

The UNDER was 2-1 again the three Week 5 primetime games, and the UNDER is now 11-5 (68.8%) through the first five NFL weekends. The UNDER produced at a 25-19-1 (56.9%) clip in 46 primetime games during the 2021 regular season.

Sunday Night Football Notes

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Cowboys have been without QB Dak Prescott (thumb surgery) since Week 1. QB Cooper Rush has taken over and helped the team to four straight wins, with the offense going for 20, 23, 25 and 22. The defense continues to hold down the fort, allowing just 14.4 PPG to rank 3rd in the league. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in five games overall.

The Eagles showed off a little D of their own last week, winning 20-17 in the desert against the Cardinals, posting the UNDER for the third time in four outings. The defense has allowed 17, 21, 8 and 7 in the past four contests after being dinged for 35 in Detroit in the season opener.

The UNDER is 13-3-1 in the past 17 games overall for Dallas, while going 6-1-1 in the past eight games on the road. The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven games at home, but the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five on grass, and 5-2 in the past seven home meetings with the Pokes.


(Getty Images)

Monday Night Football Notes

Denver at L.A. Chargers: The NFL schedule crew really served us up some screw pie. We get the Broncos in primetime for the second straight game, and fourth time in six games so far. In three primetime games, Broncos QB Russell Wilson and the offense has managed 16, 11 and 9, and it didn't even have a touchdown last time out on TNF against the Indianapolis Colts.

In Denver's only divisional game, the Broncos lost 32-23 in Las Vegas to the Raiders for the only OVER of the season.

The Chargers have cashed the OVER in three consecutive outings, while averaging 32.0 PPG in the past two outings while yielding 30.0 PPG in the past three contests. L.A. is good for 24 or more points in four of five games overall this season, too. Oddly enough, the UNDER is 2-0 in two games inside the division for the Bolts.


Fearless Predictions

Last week's predictions were just so-so, as it was a 2-2 (-20) week. Overall, we're now at 8-12 (-430) through the first five weekends. Let's build back that bankroll for Week 6 and down the stretch toward Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona on Feb. 12, 2023.

  • Best Over: OVER 43.5 Bengals at Saints
  • Best Under: UNDER 45.5 Vikings at Dolphins
  • Best First-Half Total: UNDER 20.5 Jaguars at Colts

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • UNDER 48.5 Jaguars at Colts
  • UNDER 49.5 Patriots at Browns
  • UNDER 52.5 Broncos at Chargers
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