Last Updated Nov 26, 2022, 7:07 PM

Week 10 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 10 of the NFL for Sunday, November 13th. Check out his predictions below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

NFL Week 10 Best Prop Bets

  • Chris Godwin (TB) Over 6.5 Receptions (+108)
  • Tyreek Hill (MIA) Over 93.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 

Chris Godwin (TB) Over 6.5 Receptions

Over his last four weeks Chris Godwin has been one of the most involved wide receivers in football, on a team that will likely be towards the top of the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the rest of the reason. A lot of this can be attributed to the absolutely terrible ground game that Tampa Bay seems committed to. Leonard Fournette has been one of the least efficient runners in football this season, meaning this team can really only move the ball through the air. Over those last 4 games Godwin is averaging 11.5 targets per game, putting him 4th in the NFL during that span. 

Godwin works in those situations because Brady doesn’t do well under pressure, and is known to check down to his short yardage receivers. While Evans, Jones, and Miller will be running deeper routes, Godwin will be the king of the short/intermediate over the middle of the field. That is the biggest reason why I like this play, because I definitely did not respect the Seahawks perimeter defense last week, something that burned me with Deandre Hopkins. Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has been phenomenal on the outside, with the Seahawks team allowing the least receiving yards on the outside this season. This funnels targets over the middle to guys like Chris Godwin and Cameron Brate, should both be in store for big game. 

While there other rookie corner Kobe Bryant has flashed this season, he's also allowed the 2nd most slot receiving yards this season. Godwin hasnt been as efficient as we are used to, but there is going to be plenty of chances over the middle. This is one of the most clear Godwin pass funnels of the season, and thats why I'm willing to pay this price. I also sprinkled on his touchdown, considering hes seen 46 targets over his last 4 weeks with no touchdowns. This could be a high scoring game, and I think regression is coming.

Tyreek Hill (MIA) Over 94.5 Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill is currently on pace for an historic season, and I think he finds himself in a great matchup. While the Browns defense may seem scary on paper, they are a unit that haven’t lived up to expectations this season. Myles Garrett will always be a force in the pass rush department, but getting the ball out fast is the name of the game in Miami. Hill and Waddle are currently who of the best receivers in football. While it can be hard for both of them to eat, Miami’s target share is one of the most condensed in the NFL between those two star receivers. This game could very sneakily be the highest scoring of the main slate, and Hill will obviously be a huge part of that. 

One of the things I like most about Miami's Madden-esque offense is the use of the short passing game. Since they dont have a good offensive line, they understand they need to draw up plays that get the ball out fast, which is perfect for this set of weapons they have. If Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert get off to slow starts, this team is more then comfortable airing the ball out all game. Drawing up so many designs to get the fastest wide receiver in the NFL in open space sounds like a recipe for success, and his route diversity has been impressive this season.

Hill single handily has more receiving yards then the Cowboys, Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Giants, Bears, Ravens and Titans. He leads the league in receiving yards, yards per route run, and target share as well. Hill leads the league in first read target share, and is heavily involved in the screen and short yardage game as well. That’s what makes deciding between Yards and receptions so tough for him, because he should get at-least a couple short dump offs but also 2-3 30+ yard targets. I’m going to trust his yards after catch ability and take the yards, assuming one of those screens turns into 20+ yards.

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