Week 11 Player Prop Picks

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 11 of the NFL for Sunday, November 20th.

Check out his predictions below, along with other VI Expert Picks!

NFL Week 11 Best Prop Bets

  • D’Onta Foreman Over 56.5 Rushing Yards
  • Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Jaylen Warren Over 23.5 Rushing Yards

Odds Subject to Change

D’Onta Foreman (Carolina) Over 56.5 Rushing Yards

Matchup: Carolina at Baltimore (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Running back D'Onta Foreman is one of the more interesting names on today's slate, coming in with some absolutely wild game logs. He has 118+ rushing yards in three of his last four games, with his one miss ending up at 23 yards. You may ask, how is that possible? Well the 23 yards was against the Bengals, who got out to an immediate 35-0 lead, giving the Panthers no time to run the ball.

Even if you think the Ravens will win this game handily, it's much more likely they pull ahead way deeper into the game, rather than stomping them out immediately. The Ravens of old were known for absolutely blowing out bad teams, but that really hasn't shown so far this season with Lamar, and I doubt that changes in an offense without Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, or JK Dobbins. Lamar is also now questionable, which definitely lessens the chance of the blowout. 

If the Panthers can keep this game even remotely close, Foreman should crush this number. While Chubba Hubbard returned last week, Foreman responded by setting his season high in snaps and rushing yards, proving he will likely continue to see insane volume. Only two running backs had over half of their teams opportunity share (rushes + targets), those two backs were Saquon Barkley and D’Onta Foreman. If you’re worried about blowout, and have 1H betting, over 25.5 1H rush yards on prizepicks is also a great number. 

Updated on 03/29/2024
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Dalton Schultz (Dallas) - Over 41.5 Receiving Yards

Matchup: Dallas at Minnesota (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

While you're not here for my fantasy football advice, I’m telling you guys it's time to jump off the tight end Dalton Schultz train, I’ve practically traded for him in all of my leagues. Over the last couple seasons, even with Amari Cooper and Ceede Lamb both active, Dak has had a great relationship with the tight end. In 20 games, dating back to last season, Schtultz has 99 catches for 1000 yards with Prescott under center, and they find themselves in a high scoring affair here today.

Over the last 3 weeks since returning from injury he’s gone:

  • 6-54 vs Green Bay
  • 6-74 vs Chicago 
  • 5-49 vs Detroit

Additionally he also saw an increase in targets in each one of those games, going from 5-7-8 progressively. The Vikings defense is middle of the pack against tight ends, but they have struggled a bit against higher usage tight ends so far.

There aren't many tight ends that are second on their team in target share (with Dak), I expect a lot of the attention to go towards Lamb. I like receptions also, but that isn't posted yet, a possible double-up opportunity if 4.5 has decent odds. 

Dallas tight end Dalton Shultz has been heavily involved in the offense lately. (Getty)

Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh) - Over 23.5 Rushing Yards

Matchup: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Finally lets talk about Jaylen Warren, the rookie undrafted free agent in Pittsburgh. This one is fairly simple, Najee Harris has been one of the more inefficient backs in the league this year. All we heard about from the Pitt beat reporters during their bye week was that he was going to come back and he was more involved.

While Harris still had one of his best games of the season last week, Warren had his season high 12 touches. Warren is averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season (Harris currently 3.6), and was even trusted with a key carry that sealed the game right before the 2-minute warning last week. Warren still played 43% of the snaps, and ran an equal 14 routes to Najee Harris last week. 

Coach Mike Tolmin also said that Najee Harris was going to play this week, but he would be limited. The Steelers getting TJ Watt gives me confidence that they can keep this a close competitive game. If they happen to blow them out, Warren also has the advantage of getting you those late game blowout carries as well. Expecting the rookie to make a bit of a name of himself this week.