New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

The NFL's Thanksgiving festivities will conclude on Thursday night with a compelling non-conference showdown between the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. Coverage begins from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Updated on 05/07/2025

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING PREDICTION

The Vikings were arguably the best team in football through the first 10 weeks of the season, as Minnesota racked up 25.1 PPG and allowed just 21.2 PPG across an 8-1 start to the year, which was seemingly validated by a road win over the Bills in Week 10 (W, 33-30).

However, the oddsmakers never truly bought into this Minnesota squad, as the Vikings went on to host Dallas as short home underdogs in Week 11, and it turns out, they were accurate in their assessment, as the Cowboys blew out Minnesota by a lopsided score of 40-3 this past Sunday.

The Patriots stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start after finishing second in the AFC East with a record of 10-7 last year, as New England scored just 18.5 PPG and allowed 24.5 PPG across a 1-3 skid to open the season, which included a pair of losses by 9+ PTS to the Dolphins and Ravens.

However, the Patriots have completely flipped the script since their opening stretch, as Bill Belichick’s squad now enters Week 12 following wins in five of their last six games, while scoring an average of 23.2 PPG and allowing just 11.8 PPG across that window, which appears to be trending towards the 27.2 OPPG and 17.8 DPPG they averaged last season.

I’ll take the over here, as in the midst of Minnesota’s recent success, the Vikings’ defense has quietly allowed 24+ PTS in six of their last nine games. So, Mac Jones and co. will probably find a decent amount of success in Thursday’s matchup. But I also expect to see Kirk Cousins and co. put their best foot forward after getting embarrassed at home just a few days prior.

Score Prediction: Vikings 26, Patriots 20
Best Bet: Over 42.5 (-110)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING ODDS

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Thursday, November 24, 2022
Matchup: AFC East vs. NFC North
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Patriots vs. Vikings Best Bets

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Patriots’ offense played pretty well in Mac Jones’ rookie campaign under-center, as New England ranked seventh in points scored and tenth in yardage per play last year, which was an impressive feat in just their second season since the departure of longtime QB Tom Brady (26.6 PPG, 5.7 YPP).

However, New England’s identity has always resided with its defense in the Belichick era, and nothing has changed this season, considering the Patriots have now held their opponent to 17 PTS or less in five of their last six games, which has served as the catalyst to their latest 5-1 run.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Vikings are having a surprisingly excellent regular season campaign, as Minnesota scored an average of 22.9 PPG and allowed just 23.1 PPG across a triumphant 8-2 start the year, which ranks 13^th and 19^th in the league respectively.

But to be fair, their schedule has been pretty underwhelming thus far, highlighted by the Vikings’ victories coming against the Packers, Lions, Saints, Bears, Cardinals, Commanders, and Dolphins (without Tua), with the only real impressive feat on their resume being a 33-30 road win over Buffalo in Week 10.

The Vikings finally got a wake-up call in their most recent affair against Dallas, as Minnesota’s seven-game win streak came to an abrupt halt with a 37-point loss to the Cowboys this past Sunday. And while they probably won’t be able to resolve all their issues on the defensive side of the ball, I expect to see a strong effort from the Vikings' offense after scoring 23+ PTS in seven-of-ten games so far this season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING TRENDS

• The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of New England's last six games.
• The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of Minnesota's last 18 games.
• The Vikings are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Minnesota's last seven games against New England.
• The Vikings are 5-1 SU in their last six home games.
• The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Minnesota.
• The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five games against Minnesota.
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New England's last 18 road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson