Last Updated Nov 27, 2022, 4:16 PM
Week 12 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds
Prop Betting Expert
Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 12 of the NFL for Sunday, November 27th. Check out his predictions below, along with other VI Expert Picks!
NFL Week 12 Best Prop Bets
- Mark Andrews (BAL) Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Mark Andrews (BAL) Over 5.5 Receptions (+108)
- Keenan Allen (LAC) Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Mark Andrews (BAL) Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
One of the first things I bet this week was Andrews over 60.5 yards on PrizePicks, and was hoping to catch a similar number on the sportsbooks this week. The best we currently have is the mid-sixties, which is still a better number then we should probably be getting for arguably the most dangerous tight end in football. While Andrew’s was at a heavy discount last week due to injury, his usage was definitely positive. While Andrews was a gametime decision until the very last second, he ended up playing 93% of snaps, giving me confidence that he’ll be fully integrated this week.
Gus Edwards returning to the lineup should bolster the run game, the Jaguars are still a pass funnel defense. The Ravens have been very balanced in their offense this season, and I expect them to target the Jaguars secondary that ranks dead last in the DVOA versus opposing tight ends. One of the biggest reasons we like Andrews so much is the complete and utter lack of target competition. While the Andrews to Jackson connection would likely prevail with or without a supporting cast, Demarcus Robinson and Devin Duvernay might be the least impressive 1-2 punch in the NFL. It's easy.
Mark Andrews (BAL) Over 5.5 Receptions
While Andrews does have a solid ADOT for a tight end, sitting at 10.4, I’m still surprised that his receptions line is plus money, when his receiving yards will likely close in the seventies. The Jaguars are one of those teams that will get pressure on the quarterback, and Andrews should serve as the safety blanket in those situations.
Andrews has elite numbers in every important tight end category, finishing either first or second next to Travis Kelce (i’d say that's good company). He currently has a 28.5 target share (1st), 35% air yards share (1st), and 29.3% target per route run (3rd) per The Edge.
The Ravens have also employed more two tight end sets then almost any other team in the NFL over the last couple seasons, placing an elite blocking tight end on the line allowing for Andrews to play in the slot. The Jaguars have struggled in the slot this season, and Andrews tends to hunt man coverage in those situations, creating a brutal mismatch.
Keenan Allen (LAC) Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
I feel this is such a good article combo because we are buying low on two guys that are benefiting from missing time with Injury. While I was starting to doubt if we would see a healthy Allen again this season, he looked very good in his return to the team. While he was supposed to play around 30-35 snaps last week, he ended up logging 44, running 25 routes and earning 8 targets. That tells me they want to ease him back in to avoid injury, but he’s actually healthy enough to play when he’s needed in these big moments.
Last week his underlying numbers were also very impressive, posting a 12.3 ADOT, 3.77 YPR, and a 27.6% target share. Mike Williams is currently questionable, but I highly doubt he plays a full complement of snaps if he’s ruled in, one of the most injury prone receivers in recent history. I also like to see the 12.3 ADOT because it shows he’s not just running these short routes, but actually getting down the field, filling in the video with those deeper targets. Allen is one of the best pure route runners in football, and I’m expecting a good performance against an unimpressive Cardinals defense.