Last Updated Dec 01, 2022, 8:24 PM

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 13 of the NFL season will kick things off on Thursday night with a heavyweight AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. Coverage begins from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.


The Bills are arguably the most dangerous team in the entire league, as Buffalo ranks Top 5 in scoring on both sides of the ball, with their offense currently ranked second in points scored at 28.1 PPG and their defense ranked fifth in points allowed at 18.1 PPG.

However, the Bills have consistently shot themselves in the foot in the turnover department throughout the year, as Josh Allen and co. currently rank 30th in the league in giveaways with 19, resulting in a relatively modest record of 8-3 on the season, which in turn, has paved the way for Miami to rise to the top of the AFC East standings ahead of Week 13.

On the flip side, the Patriots stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start after posting a solid record of 10-7 last year, as New England scored just 18.5 PPG and allowed 24.5 PPG across the first four weeks of the season, resulting in a lackluster 1-3 skid in those contests.

New England has completely flipped the script since that opening stretch, though, as the Patriots enter Thursday following wins in five of their last seven games, while generating an average of 23.6 PPG and allowing just 14.9 PPG across that window. Which appears to be trending towards the 27.2 OPPG and 17.8 DPPG they averaged last season.

The Patriots escaped with a 14-10 road win in the first matchup between these teams last season. But Buffalo ended up running away with the following two affairs, as the Bills posted a 33-21 victory in their final regular season meeting, and then in the playoffs, they pummeled New England by a score of 47-17.

New England is better than people give them credit for, especially on the defensive side of the ball, highlighted by the Pats holding their opponent to 17 PTS or less in five of their last seven games. But outlasting this Buffalo squad typically requires a boatload of points, as the Bills have now racked up 27+ PTS in four of their last five games. And I simply don’t trust Mac Jones and co. to perform on that level in this spot.

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 20
Best Bet: Bills -4.5 (-110)


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Thursday, December 1, 2022
Matchup: AFC East
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Time-TV: Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m. ET


The Eagles may currently own the best record in the league at 10-1, however, I can assure you, this Buffalo squad fears absolutely nobody, and rightfully so, as the Bills’ defense picked up right where it left off last year by allowing 21 PTS or less in 8-of-11 contests to open the season (18.1 PPG), which is an overwhelming amount of support for an offense that ranks second in scoring at 28.1 PPG.

The Bills are certainly flawed. Their defense is currently juggling a handful of health issues, and their rushing attack in virtually nonexistent outside of the quarterback position. But regardless of how you slice it, Buffalo should still be considered a legitimate threat to win the AFC, despite their offense ranking 29th in turnovers, and defensively, allowing a lofty average of 27 PPG across the last three weeks.

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The Bills are 4-16 SU in their last 20 road games against New England. (Getty)


The Patriots’ offense played pretty well in Mac Jones’ rookie campaign under-center, as New England ranked seventh in points scored and tenth in yardage per play last season, which was an impressive feat in just their second crack at it since the departure of longtime QB Tom Brady (26.6 PPG, 5.7 YPP).

However, New England’s identity has always resided with its defense since the onset of the Belichick era, and nothing has changed this season, highlighted by the Patriots holding their opponent to 17 PTS or less in five of their last seven games, which in turn, has bred a solid record of 5-2 across their latest stretch.

New England’s offense certainly isn’t the well-oiled machine that it used to be. However, they’ve still scored 24+ PTS in 6-of-11 matchups this season, and if they continue to hover in that range, the Patriots should be able to compete with any squad in the league alongside an elite defensive unit that allows less than 19 PPG.


  • The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Buffalo's last nine games.
  • The Bills are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games.
  • The Pats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Pats are 5-2 SU in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of New England's last six games against Buffalo.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of New England's last 11 home games.
  • The Bills are 4-1 SU in their last five games against New England.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight Bills' road games.
  • The Bills are 4-16 SU in their last 20 road games against New England.
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