Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

The 13^th weekend of regular season NFL action will conclude on Sunday night with what’s expected be a lopsided non-conference battle between the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys. Coverage begins from AT&T Stadium in Arlington at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Updated on 07/03/2025

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING PREDICTION

The Colts entered this season as the odds-on favorite to win the AFC East, and rightfully so, after ranking Top 10 in scoring on both sides of the ball the year prior, as Indy’s offense racked up an average of 26.5 PPG across last year’s solid 9-8 campaign, while defensively, holding their opponents to just 21.5 PPG throughout last season.

However, the Colts elected to part ways with Carson Wentz this past offseason, and their offense has been abysmal since, highlighted by Indy currently ranking 30^th in the league in points scored and 27^th in yardage per play (15.8 PPG, 4.9 YPP), resulting in a lackluster record of 4-7-1 thus far, despite their defense continuing to pull its weight by allowing an average of just 20.3 PPG on the season.

On the other side of the script, the Cowboys somewhat flew under the radar through the early stages of the season, as Dallas lost Dak Prescott to a thumb injury in a 19-3 loss to the Bucs back in Week 1, while the rest of the sports world zeroed in on the red-hot Eagles and Giants barreling out of the gate in pursuit of the NFC East crown.

However, there’s nothing sneaky about the Cowboys’ success anymore, as Dallas strung together an impressive 4-1 run with backup QB Cooper Rush under center. And they’ve consistently improved since the return of Prescott, highlighted by the Cowboys averaging a lofty 33.8 PPG across their subsequent 4-1 stretch.

I’ll take the under here, as the Cowboys’ offensive numbers are slightly inflated by a pair of recent 40-point outbursts, as Dallas currently ranks seventh in the league in scoring (25.4 PPG), despite generating 25 PTS or less in over half of their contests. So, I expect to see a relatively low-scoring battle in Sunday night’s matchup between a pair of defenses that are both allowing less than 20.5 PPG on the season.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 23, Colts 16
Best Bet: Under 44.5 (-110)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING ODDS

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Matchup: AFC South vs. NFC East
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Texas
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS BETTING ANALYSIS

Indy’s offense has been terrible since the acquisition of Matt Ryan, as the Colts enter Sunday following scoring outputs of 17 PTS or less in seven of their last nine games, and they recently threw another wrench into the equation by firing head coach Frank Reich and replacing him with a very inexperienced Jeff Saturday prior to Week 10.

However, their defense has saved them from widely being considered one of the worst teams in the league, highlighted by Indy ranking 11^th in the league in points allowed and 6^th in yards allowed per play on the season, while holding their opponent to 20 PTS or less in over half of their matchups.

The Colts are still a scrappy team, and they’ve become a bit of a wild card ever since handing the keys to Saturday. But in order to beat this Cowboys squad, you need to score points, and I simply don’t have faith in Indy’s ability to move the ball against a Dallas defense that currently ranks Top 5 in the league in both scoring and yardage per play (17 PPG, 4.9 YPP).

DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Cowboys appeared to be in for a bumpy ride after losing Prescott to a thumb injury in an ugly home loss to the Bucs back in Week 1. However, they’ve bounced back in emphatic fashion, as the Cowboys posted wins eight of the following ten games, while scoring 27.6 PPG and allowing just 16.8 PPG across their latest stretch.

Rush received tons of credit for kickstarting the Cowboys’ campaign, and rightfully so, as most backup QB’s go their entire career without eclipsing the heights Rush hit earlier this season.

However, defense is truly the driving force behind this engine, considering Dallas enters Sunday ranked second in the league in points allowed and fifth in yards allowed per play (16.7 PPG, 4.8 YPP). And now with Prescott back in the drivers’ seat, the sky is the limit for this squad, highlighted by the Cowboys’ offense scoring 28+ PTS in four straight games prior to Week 13.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING TRENDS

• The Colts are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indianapolis' last 17 games.
• The Colts are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
• The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Dallas' last six games.
• The Cowboys are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of Dallas' last five games against Indianapolis.
• The Cowboys are 5-0 SU in their last five home games.
• The Colts are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games against Dallas.
• The total has gone UNDER in eight of Indianapolis' last nine road games.
• The Colts are 1-6 SU in their last seven road games against Dallas.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson