New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 13 of the NFL season will conclude on Monday night with a compelling NFC South showdown between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coverage begins from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Updated on 04/20/2024
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The Todd Bowles Era in Tampa is off to a very disappointing start, to say the least, as Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ offense have averaged just 18.2 PPG across a 5-6 skid to open the season, which ranks 27th in the league in the scoring department.

However, their defense has fought through and continued to display pure dominance, highlighted by the Bucs holding their opponents to an average of 18.5 PPG on the year, which in turn, propelled them to victories in five matchups they scored 21 PTS or less in.

Speaking of coaching changes that haven’t worked out so far, the Saints are also having a miserable campaign in Dennis Allen’s first season at the helm, as New Orleans is currently tied with Carolina at the bottom of the NFC South standings with a record of 4-8 on the season, which has arguably become the worst division in football with no teams currently owning a record north of .500.

It’s tough to pinpoint the root of the Saints’ struggles. For a while, the issue appeared to be their defense, as New Orleans surrendered 26+ PTS in five-of-seven contests this season out of the gate, which never really gave their offense a chance to iron out kinks early in the year.

However, there’s no excuses for Andy Dalton and co. anymore, as the Saints’ defense enters Monday having surrendered 20 PTS or less in four of their last five games (16 PPG), and they still dropped three of those contests due to their offense generating just 14.8 PPG across their latest stretch.

Monday night’s affair is going to be an ugly one, no doubt. The under certainly is intriguing, but OU 40 is too low for my liking.

So, I’ll back the Bucs here, as the Saints have now scored 13 PTS or less in three of their last four games, which doesn’t bode well heading into a matchup against one of the best defenses in the league. And I expect Brady and co. to find a decent amount of success after putting up 20 PTS in a double-digit victory over New Orleans back in Week 2.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Saints 16
Best Bet: Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)


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Date: Monday, December 5, 2022
Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
Time-TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET


The Saints offense’ was red-hot for a brief stretch earlier this season, as the Saints racked up 24+ PTS in five straight games in Weeks 4 through 8, resulting in a modest 2-3 record across that window.

However, this has been one of the worst offenses in the league outside of that stretch, highlighted by the Saints scoring 14 PTS or less in five of their other seven contests, which includes a miserable 10-point outing in a loss to the Bucs back in Week 2.

The Saints clearly have no vision moving forward. They originally named Jameis Winston the starter out of the gate this season, but then Winston got hurt in Week 3, and then they permanently passed the torch to Andy Dalton like a hot potato.

Everything would be fine if the Saints were actually winning games and their savvy veteran quarterback was doing just enough on the offensive side of the ball to keep them alive in most matchups. But that’s not the case for New Orleans right now.

Dalton has had an excellent NFL career, but he’s 35 years old, and certainly isn’t the solution for this squad at the QB position for seasons to come. So, what do they have to lose? The Saints are 4-8, and they’ve scored 13 PTS or less in three of their last four games. I’m not a huge fan of Jameis or Taysom Hill either, but they gotta do something, this offense has been spinning its wheels all season.

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The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. (Getty)


The Buccaneers have posted a surprisingly lackluster 5-6 record so far this season, however, the most stunning part about their struggles, is the fact that they primarily stem from the offensive side of the ball, as Brady and the Bucs’ offense are averaging just 18.2 PPG on 339 YPG on the season, which ranks 27th and 18th in the league respectively.

Fortunately, their defense has been phenomenal this season, as the Bucs currently rank Top 10 in the league in both points allowed and total yardage (18.5 PPG, 310 YPG), which is a very impressive feat considering they rank 29th in time of possession on the other side of the ball.

It’s almost time to start writing off Tampa regarding Super Bowl chances, especially staring down the barrel of what could potentially be some eye-opening matchups against Cincy and San Francisco soon. But the Bucs will probably still make the playoffs due to the shortcomings of their division rivals anyway. And if this squad suddenly comes to life against some top-tier opponents down the stretch, I certainly won’t be betting against them this postseason.


  • The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of New Orleans' last five games.
  • The Saints are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The Bucs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games.
  • The Bucs are 3-6 SU in their last nine games.
  • The Bucs are 14-5 SU in their last 19 home games.
  • The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Tampa Bay.
  • The Saints are 7-2 SU in their last nine games against Tampa Bay.
  • The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
  • The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against Tampa Bay.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of last five matchups between the Bucs and Saints.

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