Last Updated Dec 17, 2022, 8:00 PM

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 15 of the NFL season will resume on Saturday night with a heavyweight AFC East rematch between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 8:15 p.m. ET on NFL Network.


The Dolphins have been on quite the rollercoaster throughout the season, as Miami briefly lost Tua Tagovailoa to an injury following a perfect 3-0 start, inevitably resulting in a three-game losing streak in his absence, in turn, bringing Miami’s record down to 3-3 prior to Week 7.

However, the Dolphins’ offense never skipped a beat in the immediate aftermath of Tua’s return, as Miami followed up their bumpy three-game skid with a 5-0 run in Weeks 7 through 12, while racking up a lofty average of 30.2 PPG on the offensive side of the ball during that timeframe.

The Dolphins have looked like a completely different squad the last few weeks, though, and not in a good way, considering Miami enters Saturday having scored 17 points or less in back-to-back losses, marking the Fins’ only two defeats of the year with Tagovailoa under center.

While on the other hand, it seems like everybody is still trying figure out the Bills, as they’ve been touted as Super Bowl favorites since the opening week of the season, and they still remain favorites at most shops heading into Saturday’s contest. 

But something always just seems a little bit off with this Buffalo squad, which is probably due to the fact that Josh Allen and co. currently rank 28th in the league in giveaways with a whopping 20 turnovers on the season. In turn, making their contests much closer than necessary, and occasionally, even choking away a loss.

However, Buffalo has cleaned things up in the turnover department recently, and its showing up in the win column, considering the Bills have turned the ball over just twice in their last four games, and they won all four of those contests, with three of those victories coming by 8+ points.

The weather forecast is calling for a snowstorm in Buffalo this weekend, causing the total for Saturday’s matchup to slowly drop in the days leading up to the contest. But this appears to be one of the few occasions where the snowy weather could actually play to the strength of these two offensive units.

The Dolphins certainly haven’t fared well in cold weather so far this season, but they also haven’t played in heavy snow yet. And top shelf receivers like Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are an absolute nightmare to defend against in icy conditions.

Score Prediction: Bills 26, Dolphins 23
Best Bet: Over 44 (-110)


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Saturday, December 17, 2022
Matchup: AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
Time-TV: NFL Network, 8:15 p.m. ET


Miami is having one of the most frustrating 8-5 campaigns in recent memory, considering the Dolphins have averaged 26.8 PPG and turned the ball over just eight times in their ten contests started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, while posting an impressive 8-2 record in those matchups.

However, in their three games that Tagovailoa missed or exited early, the Dolphins scored just 16 PPG and turned the ball over seven times, resulting in a winless 0-3 record in those contests, and a heavy downtick to their impressive numbers outside of that stretch.

I don’t quite have the guts to take Miami moneyline in this matchup. But I think there’s actually a decent chance the Dolphins sneak away with a victory in Saturday night’s snow-riddled affair.

But on the other hand, whenever the Bills win, they typically win big, considering seven of Buffalo’s ten wins this season have come by distant margins of 8+ points. 

So, if you’re looking for a side to take here, I would steer clear of the Dolphins +7. If you like Miami, just take them moneyline. If you like Buffalo, just lay the touchdown. But I don’t see any reason to get cute with it and take points in a matchup with so many unpredictable factors on the table.

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The total has gone OVER in 10 of the last 15 matchups between the Bills and Dolphins. (Getty)


The Bills recently announced that Von Miller will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury, which is a crushing blow to their defense. But even without Miller, this is still one of the most stacked rosters in football.

The Bills just need to limit their turnovers, and everything will be fine, considering they rank 28th in the league in giveaways with 20 turnovers on the season, which has constantly sprung their defense into short field situations, in turn, flattening their numbers on the defensive side of the script.

But fortunately for ‘over’ bettors, the Bills’ turnover struggles aren’t a concerning matter, as the short fields and defensive scores created by their giveaways puts the ball right back into the hands of this explosive offense rather quickly. Which has pumped up the scores of their contests all season.


  • The Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Miami's last six games.
  • The Dolphins are 5-2 SU in their last seven games.
  • The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of Buffalo's last 11 games.
  • The Bills are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games against Miami.
  • The Bills are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games.
  • The Dolphins are 1-7 SU in their last eight games against Buffalo.
  • The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
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