NFL Betting Trends – Week 16

Betting expert and handicapper Bruce Marshall breaks down the top trends for the entire Week 16 NFL slate. Check them out below and be sure to visit our NFL picks page for expert selections on games this week!

Sunday, December 25

Green Bay at Miami (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Pack improved to 4-7 vs. spread last eleven this season after Monday win vs. Rams, also 4-1 “over” last five (though "under" on Monday). 
  • Note Green Bay has covered 3 of last 4 as dog this season. 
  • Dolphins have lost three in a row SU (1-2 vs. line in those), though 4-2 vs. spread at Hard Rock in 2022. 
  • Dolphins also “under” 5-1 as host this season. 

Tech Play: Packers, Under
Expert Picks

Denver at L.A. Rams (CBS, 4:30 p.m.)

  • Broncos actually working on three straight covers for first time this season and off of first SU win since Oct. 30 when beating Jags in London. 
  • Long Denver “under” run (was 11-1 to start this season, 23-6 since 2021) sidetracked a bit past two weeks with pair of “over” results.
  • After Monday loss at Pack, Rams now a lowly 4-11 vs. spread since late 2021, 3-7 last ten vs. line at SoFi (though covers in last two as host). 

Tech Play: Broncos, Under
Expert Picks

Tampa Bay at Arizona (NBC, 8:15 p.m.)

  • Bucs now on 1-10-1 spread skid after Cincy loss, also means they have failed to cover 11 in a row in North America (W came in Munch vs. Seahawks). 
  • Tampa Bay also “under” 10-4 this season even with last week’s “over” vs. Bengals.
  • Cards 1-7 SU, 3-5 vs. line at home this season, now on 1-12 SU skid at home since mid 2021! 

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

Monday, December 26

L.A. Chargers at Indianapolis (ESPN, 8:15 p.m.)

  • Chargers 5-2 vs. spread away this season, also on 5-1-1 “under” run after Titans game on Sunday. 
  • Colts on 6-2 “under” run at Lucas Oil since late 2021, also now 3-2 vs. line for Jeff Saturday. 

Tech Play: Chargers, Under
Expert Picks

Thursday, December 22

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m.)

  • Jags on move, won and covered four of last six, also now “over” four in a row after Dallas game last weekend. Though only 2-5 vs. spread away in 2022.
  • Jets have now lost last three outright and four of last five overall (2-3 vs. spread in those games), now on 7-2 “under” run as well.

Tech Play: Jaguars
Expert Picks

Saturday, December 24

Seattle at Kansas City (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Hawks sinking, 1-4 SU and 0-5 vs. spread last five this season.
  • Seattle had been “over” three straight and four of five into last week before “under” vs. Niners on Thursday.
  • Chiefs though no covers last three in December, now 5-10 vs. spread since late 2021, also 5-1 ”under” at Arrowhead this season.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

New Orleans at Cleveland (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Saints only 1-5 vs. spread away this season. 
  • NO also “under” last three following Falcons result and “under” 6-1 last seven in 2021.
  • Browns have covered last three at home and now “under” four straight and “under” 3-0 since return of Deshaun Watson.

Tech Play: Browns, Under
Expert Picks

Detroit at Carolina (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Lions continue their surge, SU wins in last three and six of last seven, now covers in seven straight and 7-0-1 vs. line last eight vs. number this season. 
  • Dan Campbell spread mark 21-9 since last season. 
  • Detroit still “over” 9-5 in 2022 despite the “under” last week at Jets.
  • Panthers cooled by Steelers last week after covering previous four and six of previous seven. 

Tech Play: Lions
Expert Picks

Atlanta at Baltimore (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Falcs covered for just the second time in eight games last Sunday against Saints, Atlanta now also “under” 5-1 last six this season.
  • Ravens 0-5-1 vs. spread at M&T Bank Stadium in 2022, 0-6-1 since late 2021 vs. number as host. 
  • Baltimore “under” 10-4 this term and 12-4 “under” since late 2021.

Tech Play: Falcons, Under
Expert Picks

Buffalo at Chicago (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Bills only 6-8-1 vs. spread dating to late 2021, also “under” 10-4 this season even with last Saturday’s “over” vs. Dolphins.
  • Bears had dropped four straight vs. spread prior to Eagles cover last week, had also been “over” seven in a row prior to last week’s “under” against Philly. 

Tech Play: Bills, Over
Expert Picks

Houston at Tennessee (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Remember Texans had covered three straight in series before Titans won first meeting 17-10 at NRG on October 30. 
  • Houston has actually covered last two this season after dropping previous four and six of seven vs. number.
  • Texans had also been “under” four straight prior to “overs” last two in December.
  • Titans no covers last four (0-3-1) in 2022, also “under” 15-6 since late 2021. 

Tech Play: Texans, Under
Expert Picks

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (FOX, 1:00 p.m.)

  • G-Men 5-1 vs. spread away this season, 8-2 as underdog.
  • New York also “under” 19-10-1 since 2021, though “over” 3-1-1 last five in 2022.
  • Vikes 11-3 SU but only 6-7-1 vs. spread in 2022, and 3-4 vs. line last seven as host.
  • Minnesota now “over” four straight after Indy game last Saturday. 

Tech Play: Giants
Expert Picks

Cincinnati at New England (CBS, 1:00 p.m.)

  • Bengals have now won and covered six straight this season in latest surge, as Cincy now 11-3 vs. spread in 2022, and now on 19-3 spread uptick since late 2021! 
  • Bengals also “under” 13-5-1 since late 2021 even after last week’s “over” vs. Bucs.
  • Belichick 1-3 SU and vs. line last four this season after Raiders fiasco, also still “under” 5-2 last seven in 2022 even with "over” last week at Las Vegas. 

Tech Play: Bengals, Under
Expert Picks

Washington at San Francisco (CBS, 4:05 p.m.)

  • Wash now no covers last two this season after 6-0-1 spread uptick prior, though has covered last three as dog.
  • Ron Rivera also on 9-2-1 “under” run this season.
  • Niners have now won last seven SU, 6-1 vs. line in those, including five straight spread covers.
  • SF 10-1 SU, 9-2 vs. spread last 11 at Santa Clara. 

Tech Play: 49ers, Under
Expert Picks

Philadelphia at Dallas (FOX, 4:25 p.m.)

  • Cowboys had won and covered three meetings previous to Oct. 16 loss on a Sunday night at Philly. 
  • Eagles 7-0 SU but only 2-5 vs. spread away this season (this week they’re a dog, however).
  • Birds were also “over” 7-1 last eight into last week but landed “under” vs. Bears.
  • Cowboys now “over” last four and 6-1 last seven this season, but have dropped 2 of last 3 vs. spread at home.

Tech Play: Eagles, Over
Expert Picks

Las Vegas at Pittsburgh (NFL, 8:15 p.m.)

  • 50-year anniversary (one day later) of Franco’s Immaculate Reception. 
  • Raiders have won and covered four of last five this season but only 3-5 vs. spread away in 2022. 
  • Vegas has covered last three as dog in 2022, however. Raiders also “under” 8-3 away since late 2021.
  • Steelers on 8-2 “under” run at home since mid 2021, and have covered six of last nine this season.

Tech Play: Under
Expert Picks

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