Last Updated Jan 17, 2023, 7:35 PM

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks, Predictions, Odds

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend will conclude on Monday night with a highly anticipated NFC rematch between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coverage begins from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.


There’s lots of positive buzz surrounding Tampa Bay heading into Monday’s contest, and rightfully so. The Cowboys just posted an ugly 26-6 loss to Washington last week, and Tom Brady has posted a perfect 7-0 record against Dallas throughout his career.

However, I don’t want to be a prisoner of the moment here. The Buccaneers’ offense has been terrible all year. They finished the season ranked 25th in the league in both scoring and yardage per play And honestly, this squad doesn’t even belong in the playoffs. 

Fortunately, though, the Bucs play in the worst division in football, and their defense did most of the heavy lifting throughout the year, highlighted by all four NFC South teams finishing below the .500 mark this season, and Tampa holding its opponent 21 points or less in 10-of-17 matchups.

However, In a must-win game in Week 17, Tampa’s offense erupted for 30 points on 478 total yards in a triumphant victory over the Panthers, a squad that fired their head coach and waived their starting quarterback mid-season. 

So now, all of a sudden, the public seems overly eager to jump back on the Bucs’ bandwagon, but I simply can’t bring myself to do it. I’ve seen too much at this point. 

By no means is this Dallas squad flawless, starting at the top, with Dak Prescott throwing a league-high 15 interceptions during the regular season, despite participating in just 12 of the Cowboys’ contests.

Prior to their latest outing against Washington, though, the Cowboys had scored 27+ points in nine straight games, which is a benchmark Tampa’s offense has hit just twice this year. And now that the Bucs’ defense is struggling, having surrendered 24+ points in four of their last five matchups, it’s tough to imagine Brady escaping this one with a victory.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 17
Best Bet: Cowboys -2.5 (-110)

Take Dallas!


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Monday, January 16, 2023
Matchup: NFC East vs. NFC South
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
TV-Time: ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET


For a variety of reasons, the Cowboys carry a stigma that they can’t be trusted, which is a fair assessment under a broader set of circumstances. However, there’s no logical reason to trust Tampa Bay more than Dallas at this point and time

Can the Cowboys go on the road and beat Philly or San Francisco? I’m not so sure. However, this is a matchup against a Buccaneers team that snuck into the playoffs with a losing record, and for most of the year, their only saving grace was their defensive dominance.

It appears now, though, that such a high level of defensive play is no longer on the table, highlighted by Tampa surrendering a lofty average of 28 PPG across a 2-3 skid to close the regular season, which is a recipe for disaster when combined with the merits of the Bucs’ 25th ranked offensive unit.

The Cowboys have now scored 27+ points in nine of their last ten games, with five of those performances ringing in north of the 30-point mark. And if their offense performs similar to that level in Monday’s contest, I’ll be stunned if Tampa is able to compete.

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The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. (Getty)


Three NFC teams finished with an equal or better record than Tampa Bay, and still missed the playoffs. Those teams were Washington, Detroit, and Green Bay, who all, for the most part, looked far more dangerous than the Bucs throughout the season.

I’m not someone who believes Tom Brady is washed or anything like that. He’s certainly not the issue with this Tampa squad. The Buccaneers just need a hard reset this offseason, and I have no doubt they’ll be back and better than ever if they’re able to retain Brady moving forward.

Remove Brady from the equation, though, and this squad falls apart at the seams. The Buccaneers let Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask take over at quarterback following the halftime break of their regular season finale, and almost immediately, the game got out of hand, as Falcons ran away with a double-digit victory by outscoring Tampa 20-0 in the second half.

All season we waited…and waited…and waited for the Bucs’ offense to miraculously come to life and things around, because of course, that’s what teams led by Tom Brady always do.

However, they never really broke out until their 30-point performance against Carolina to clinch the division in Week 17, and I apologize for my lack of enthusiasm for Tampa’s tough win over the 7-9 Panthers, but the Bucs have no business hosting a playoff matchup against the 12-5 Cowboys, who rank Top 5 in the league in scoring on both sides of the ball.


  • The total has gone OVER in five of Dallas' last seven games.
  • The Cowboys are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Tampa Bay's last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games against Dallas.
  • The Bucs are 4-1 SU in their last five home games.
  • The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against Tampa Bay.
  • The Cowboys are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games against Tampa Bay.
  • The Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
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