Last Updated Jan 21, 2023, 8:14 AM

AFC Divisional Playoffs Round Betting Cheat Sheet

The road to the AFC Championship continues this weekend in the Divisional Round as four teams will look to advance to the AFC Championship Game.

Similar to the NFC Conference, the first AFC Divisional Round game is set for Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023 and the second game on Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023. 

Although all of the AFC Wild Card games were decided by a combined 12 points, all of the higher seeds advanced to the Divisional Playoff Round. 

No. 1 seed Kansas City will host No. 4 Jacksonville at Arrowhead Stadium while No. 2 Buffalo will play No. 3 Cincinnati in Orchard Park, New York. 

AFC Playoff Bracket and Matchups

  • 1 Kansas City vs. 4 Jacksonville
  • 2 Buffalo vs. 3 Cincinnati

Odds to win AFC Championship

AFC Championship Odds

  1. Kansas City +145
  2. Buffalo +175
  3. Cincinnati +350
  4. Jacksonville +1300

Listed in Seed Order - Odds per FanDuel - Subject to Change

1 Kansas City Chiefs vs. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Betting Matchup & Trends
  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 21, 2023
  • Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • TV-Time: NBC, 4:30 p.m. ET

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

The Chiefs opened -8.5 over the Jaguars and the club will likely close as the largest home favorites in the Divisional Playoff round. The ‘over/under’ is also going to be the highest number with an opener of 51.5. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Stats

Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Record: 10-8 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 9-9 O/U
Road Record: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Kansas City Chiefs
Overall Record: 14-3 SU,  5-11-1 ATS, 8-9 O/U
Home Record: 7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS, 2-6 O/U

Jacksonville closed the season with three straight wins both SU and ATS on the road albeit to three non-playoff teams in the Titans, Jets and Texans. Versus playoff teams, Jacksonville went 1-2 on the road with the lone win being a 38-10 decision over the L.A. Chargers in Week 3. 

The Kansas City offense didn’t show much punch this season compared to the previous season. The unit scored 20-plus in every game but never more than 30 and that translated into a 6-2 ‘under’ record. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Head-to-Head

The Chiefs held off the Jaguars, 27-17 as 10-point home favorites in Week 10. Kansas City jumped out to a 20-0 lead before Jacksonville cut the deficit to 20-10 in the third quarter. Patrick Mahomes connected with Travis Kelce on a 7-yard touchdown in the final minute of the third to retake a 17-point advantage before Jacksonville scored late to grab the push. Mahomes finished with four touchdown passes, while Trevor Lawrence tossed a pair of touchdowns in the loss. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Notes

Prior to this season, the Jaguars haven’t been in the playoffs since the 2017-18 postseason. For what it’s worth, the franchise has gone 3-2 all-time in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round and two of those victories came on the road. 

Since Patrick Mahomes took over the quarterback duties for the Chiefs, the team has gone 8-3 in the playoffs. In the Divisional Round, Kansas City has gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS and the offense has averaged 36.5 points per game in those contests. 

Last 5 Playoff Games
Jacksonville: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Kansas City: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U

Buffalo and Cincinnati will square off on Sunday afternoon from Orchard Park, New York. (Getty)

2 Buffalo Bills vs. 3 Cincinnati Bengals

  • Betting Matchup & Trends
  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • TV-Time: CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds

The Bills opened -5 versus the Bengals with a total of 49.5. In the Week 17 matchup that was canceled, Buffalo closed as a 2.5 road favorite in that matchup.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Stats

Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Record: 13-4 SU, 12-4-1 ATS,  7-9-1 O/U
Road Record: 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS, 3-5-1 O/U

Buffalo Bills
Overall Record: 14-3 SU, 8-8-1 ATS,  7-10 O/U
Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in football at the moment. The Bengals enter the Divisional Round having won nine straight games, and they’ve covered the spread in eight of those contests. 

While on the other hand, Buffalo has also played excellent down the stretch, highlighted by the Bills posting wins in eight straight games. However, their numbers against the spread have been a bit underwhelming as of late, considering the Bills are just 4-4 ATS in their last eight contests.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Head-to-Head

The lone regular season matchup between these teams was cut short by Damar Hamlin’s unfortunate injury. However, prior to the abrupt cancellation of the contest, the Bengals jumped out to an early 7-3 lead in their Week 17 meeting with Buffalo, and appeared to be driving down the field again. But ultimately, it counted for nothing due to the extenuating circumstances.

The Bengals are 4-2 in their last four matchups against Buffalo dating back to 2011. However, the Bills have now won two of their last three meetings, and they’ve held Cincy to 20 points or less in all three of those contests.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Playoff Notes

The Bengals improved to 4-1 in the postseason with QB Joe Burrow after last week’s 24-17 Wild Card victory over Baltimore at home. Including the loss in last year’s Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams, Cincy has gone 2-1 in away and neutral games in the playoffs during this span. Teaser bettors should make a note that all five of the games with Burrow and Cincy have been decided by seven points or less. 

Buffalo owns a 4-3 playoff record with Josh Allen as QB and all four of the wins have come at home, two by double digits and the other two by exactly three points. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in those games and is 5-2 in the seven playoff appearances with Allen. The Bills have met the Bengals twice in the postseason and Cincinnati won both games that took place in the 1980s. 

Last 5 Playoff Games
Cincinnati: 4-1 SU,  4-1 ATS,  1-4 O/U
Buffalo: 3-2 SU,  2-3 ATS,  4-1 O/U

Divisional Playoff History and Trends

– In last year’s postseason, the No. 1 seed was eliminated in this round as Cincinnati upset Tennessee 19-16 on the road. 

– The No. 2 seed almost got sent packing too as the Kansas City Chiefs needed overtime to defeat Buffalo 42-36 at home. 

– In the 2020-21 AFC Divisional Playoff Round, the higher seeds both advanced to the championship game.

– The last time both road teams won the AFC Divisional Playoffs came in the 2006-07 season as No. 4 New England and No. 3 Indianapolis advanced to the championship game. 

– Including the two AFC matchups played each postseason, favorites have gone 13-7 SU over the last five years in the Divisional Round. 

– However, bettors have watched the favorites and underdogs produce a 10-10 stalemate against the spread. 

– Individuals that prefer betting totals have also seen a stalemate the past four years, with the ‘over/under’ going 8-8 in the 16 matchups.  

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