Last Updated Jan 21, 2023, 4:42 PM

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks, Predictions, Odds

NFL Divisional Round festivities will begin on Saturday mid-afternoon with a compelling AFC rematch between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC.


The Jaguars found themselves behind the 8-ball early following a miserable 3-7 start to the season, and they appeared to be dead to rights in the opening round of the playoffs too, as Jacksonville quickly fell behind 27-0 in the first half of their meeting with L. A. on Wild Card Weekend.

However, this Jacksonville squad is absolutely relentless. The Jaguars closed the regular season with wins in seven-of-nine matchups in order to clinch a playoff berth, and their resiliency was on full display yet again on Wild Card Weekend, as they outscored the Chargers 31-3 following the two-minute mark in the first half of last week’s contest.

In last week’s win over L. A., Lawrence had a severe case of the playoff jitters early in the contest, as he single-handedly spotted the Bolts a huge lead by throwing four interceptions in the first half. But such poor ball security is pretty out of character for him, highlighted by Lawrence throwing just two interceptions in his last 307 pass attempts prior to his latest set of blunders.

Aside from their stunning comeback against L. A., though, there’s nothing fluky about the Jaguars’ recent success, considering Trevor Lawrence and co. have averaged a lofty 27.4 PPG across their eight contests since their Week 11 bye, while defensively, surrendering just 22 PPG to their opponents during that span.

But unfortunately, 27 points typically isn’t enough to beat Kansas City. The Chiefs’ offense led the league in both scoring and total yardage this season, and they’ve now scored 26+ points in seven of their last nine games. So, you can almost guarantee that we’ll get a strong outing from the Chiefs’ offense in this one. But how will their defense fare?

Kansas City’s defense is notorious for showing brief flashes of excellence from time-to-time, and they absolutely dominated the closing weeks of the season, highlighted by the Chiefs holding their opponent to 13 points or less in two of their last three contests.

However, their defensive unit shouldn’t be trusted to consistently perform on that level. The Chiefs ranked 16th in the league in points allowed this season, and prior to their latest four-game stretch, Kansas City had surrendered 27+ points in five of their last ten games.

So, I’ll take the over here, as  it’s tough to put much faith in the Chiefs’ defense heading into Saturday’s matchup against a Jacksonville team that’s now scored 28+ points in five of their last eight contests. But Kansas City will probably still escape with a victory on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes in this one.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 32, Jaguars 24
Best Bet: Over 53 (-110)

Take the Over!


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Saturday, January 21, 2023
Matchup: AFC South vs. AFC West
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
TV-Time: NBC, 4:30 p.m. ET


The Jaguars posted losses in six-of-eight matchups out of the gate under new head coach Doug Pederson, which was a bit concerning with five of those losses coming by relatively distant margins of 6+ points.

However, the Jaguars had a phenomenal back half of the year, highlighted by Trevor Lawrence and co. racking up a lofty average of 26 PPG across their last nine regular season contests, which was the primary catalyst behind their 7-2 run down the stretch to clinch a playoff berth.

Don’t overlook Jacksonville’s defense, though, because they’ve also been pulling their weight recently, considering the Jaguars have now held their opponent to 16 points or less in three of their last four games. And with the way their offense has been moving the ball as of late, I doubt they’ll go down without a fight.

But even if the Jags’ offense plays great and they rack up 28+ points in Saturday’s contest, there’s still a good chance they come up short on the road against a red-hot Chiefs squad that averaged 29.2 PPG across a perfect 5-0 run to close the regular season.

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The Jaguars are 4-16 SU in their last 20 road games. (Getty)


In the first matchup between these teams, the Chiefs jumped out to a 20-0 first half lead, and never really looked back on the way to a comfortable 27-17 road victory, despite turning the ball over three times in that contest.

However, the tables are turned this time around, as the Jaguars will hit the road for Kansas City in the Divisional Round, and certainly, they’ll be hoping that their defensive improvements can serve as the differentiating factor in Saturday’s rematch.

Nobody stops this Chiefs’ offensive attack, though. Of course, they had one head-scratching blunder in a 20-17 loss to Indy back in Week 3. But aside from that, their only losses during the regular season came in highly competitive battles against the Bills and Bengals. 

So, I wouldn’t count on a sluggish performance from Kansas City in a matchup against a Jags’ squad that’s now surrendered 30+ points in four of their last six contests.

It’s no coincidence that the Chiefs have played in four straight AFC Championship Games, despite consistently ranking in the middle of the pack on the defensive side of the ball. Sometimes, the best defense truly is great offense, though, and this team has been a glaring example of that for years. 

The total for this contest is currently stationed north of OU 50, which is a tall order for any matchup. But the ‘over’ is probably your best bet here, as ultimately, I think we’ll see the Chiefs’ offense outlast Jacksonville’s in this one.


  • The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Jaguars are 6-0 SU in their last six games.
  • The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Kansas City's last five games against Jacksonville.
  • The Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games.
  • The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Kansas City.
  • The Jaguars are 0-6 SU in their last six games against Kansas City.
  • The Jaguars are 4-16 SU in their last 20 road games.
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