Last Updated Jan 26, 2023, 5:02 PM

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions, Odds

NFL Divisional Round Playoff action will resume on Sunday afternoon with a highly anticipated AFC showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS.


The first matchup of the year between these teams was cut short due to unfortunate circumstances, and while ultimately, the results were thrown away for obvious measures, we still had the benefit of seeing roughly half-a-quarter of football between Cincy and Buffalo back in Week 17, which looked like it was going to be an absolute doozie.

The Bengals wasted no time kicking things into gear in their abbreviated meeting, as Cincy won the coin toss and elected to receive the opening kick, which is a bit of a rarity these days. But clearly, Zac Taylor was confident in his play script out of the gate, as the Bengals walked down the field and punched in a touchdown in six plays on the opening drive of the contest.

The Bills immediately countered with a strong possession of their own, though, as Josh Allen and co. drove all the way down to the Bengals’ seven yardline, before eventually stalling out and settling for a 25-yard chip shot field goal.

The Bills might be the most dangerous squad in the AFC whenever they protect the football and play good defense. But unfortunately, they haven’t done that as of late, highlighted by Buffalo surrendering an average of 24 PPG and turning the ball over 10 times in their last four games, and that type of carelessness will likely catch up with them in a tough matchup against Cincinnati. 

Emotions will be high in Orchard Park this Sunday, and we should be in for quite the battle. But push comes to shove, Cincy is the far more reliable option in this matchup.

The Bengals have now won nine straight games, while racking up a lofty average of 28 PPG and turning the ball over just nine times during that stretch, which is the same amount of turnovers Buffalo has had since Week 16. 

It’s way too tough to trust the Bills in this spot, especially laying anything more than a field goal. Cincy very well could win this one outright, but I feel much safer taking the points.

Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 24
Best Bet: Bengals +5.5 (-110)

Take Cincy!


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Sunday, January 22, 2023
Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV-Time: CBS, 3:00 p.m. ET


The Bengals certainly weren’t the most popular pick to represent the conference in last year’s Super Bowl, which made sense, considering their offense always stood a step below other top shelf contenders like Kansas City and Buffalo, and their defense ranked in the middle of the pack allowing over 22 PPG. But clearly, anything is possible with a pure winner like Joe Burrow in the driver’s seat.

This Bengals’ team is much different now, though, considering Cincy’s defense finished sixth in the league in scoring this season, which ultimately, is the factor that sets this squad apart from the rest of the bunch, especially when combined with the power of their excellent offensive unit.

Cincy’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds this year, and now that the Bengals rank Top 10 in the league on both sides of the ball, this squad is feared for a variety of reasons, and they’re no longer reliant on jackpot performances by Burrow in order to compete at the highest level. 

I wouldn’t advise betting the farm on Burrow and co. in this matchup. The Bills are a very good team, and you always run the chance of things spiralling out of control defensively when standing opposite of Josh Allen. But until somebody proves capable of slowing down the Bengals, I think you almost gotta take the points with Cincy as such a steep underdog.

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The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. (Getty)


It wouldn’t have been all that surprising if the Bills cruised to a Super Bowl title relatively unhindered, as Buffalo truly is the most dangerous squad in the league when everything is firing on all cylinders for them.

However, they’ve consistently shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and defensive lapses all season, which has caught up to them in some of their bigger matchups. So, I also wouldn’t have been stunned to see them lose their opening round playoff matchup to the Dolphins helmed by a third-string quarterback last week.

Regardless of their turnover issues, though, the Bills still comfortably stand amongst the top teams in football, and I have no problem with them being favored to win this game.

But quite frankly, I think Cincy is playing better football at the moment, and it feels much better to back a squad that actually takes pride in its ball security. The Bengals’ offense ranked Top 5 in the league in turnovers with just 18 on the season, and a huge chunk of those came during their wonky five-turnover performance against Pittsburgh all the way back in Week 1.


  • The Bengals are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The Bengals are 9-0 SU in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Buffalo's last five games.
  • The Bills are 8-0 SU in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of Buffalo's last ten games against Cincinnati.
  • The Bills are 5-0 SU in their last five home games.
  • The Bengals are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against Buffalo.
  • The Bengals are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games against Buffalo.
  • The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
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