Super Bowl 57 MVP Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Historically, the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award is notorious for going to the winning team’s quarterback. In the 56 Super Bowls thus far, a QB has been named MVP in 31 of them, which is more than all the other positions combined, with running backs (7), wide receivers (8) and defensive players (10) standing next in line, but by a very distant margin.

Since the 1990s, though, we’ve seen a far more balanced distribution of the award’s voting, highlighted by 13 of the last 29 Super Bowl MVP’s going to somebody outside of the quarterback position, and most recently, Cooper Kupp took home last year’s honors for the Los Angeles Rams

The notion of a position player winning SB MVP is more common than ever now, and rightfully so, non-quarterbacks have taken home the award in four of the last nine Super Bowls. So, in order to cover all ground, we’ve got you covered with picks and analysis breaking down both quarterback markets in this matchup, as well as a few longshots to consider.

Super Bowl 57 MVP Best Bets

• Jalen Hurts (QB) +130 - Eagles
• Chris Jones (DT) +5000 - Chiefs
• Darius Slay (CB) +6000 - Eagles

Super Bowl 57 Picks

• Chiefs-Eagles Picks
• Over-Under Picks
• Player Props Picks

Jalen Hurts (QB) +130

Whenever a quarterback reigns victorious in his first Super Bowl appearance, the MVP honors typically go to them, especially if it’s someone with a true comeback story like Jalen Hurts. However, last year, Matthew Stafford hoisted the Lombardi Trophy for the first time, and also had somewhat of a feel-good narrative working in his favor, but the voters elected to honor Kupp instead. So, maybe that’s no longer the case anymore.

In most instances, though, it’s difficult to pinpoint an MVP that isn’t the winning team’s quarterback, simply due to the nature of position, and because of how QB-driven the league has become over the past few decades. But hypothetically, if one of these QBs were to get snubbed of the award this year, it would probably be Mahomes, since he’s already got one sitting on his mantle.

Player awards are all subjective and debatable, especially when voting based on the merits of just one game, and in the Eagles’ case, it’ll probably be tough to find a worthy candidate outside of Hurts.

Haason Reddick paces the entire league in sacks with 19.5 on the year, which includes 3.5 sacks in Philly’s two playoff matchups. However, Mahomes is far more prone to making errant throws than taking sacks. He was sacked just 1.5 times per game during the regular season, which was the third-fewest in the league in that department. So, if a defensive player emerges as the frontrunner for Philly, there’s a good chance it ends up being a member of the secondary.

The Birds’ ground game is their bread and butter, they rank Top 10 in the league in both total yards and yardage per carry, but make no mistake, this isn’t a team that likes to line up in I-formation and pound the rock 25+ times per game with a workhorse running back. 

Contrarily, Hurts is an enormous part of the Eagles’ rushing attack, having ran for 51 YPG and 13 TDs during the regular season, and if Philly wins this contest, it’s tough to imagine a scenario in which somebody other than Hurts receives the MVP honors.

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Chris Jones (DT) +5000

On the other side of things, once a quarterback wins his first Super Bowl MVP Award, in most cases, that player usually has to truly earn any further recognition if they manage to lead their team to multiple championships.

There’s no denying the fact that Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable player to this Chiefs squad, and truth be told, he’s probably the most valuable player in the entire league on a broad scale. However, don’t forget, Mahomes is dealing with a serious ankle issue at the moment, at least to a certain extent, and this Eagles’ defense is no joke. 

So, assuming Mahomes isn’t totally on his A-Game, there’s a good chance that the Chiefs will need an extra boost from their defense in order to win this one, and if there’s anybody capable of blowing up this game from the defensive side of the script, it’s Chris Jones.

Philly may have the overall league-leader in sacks (Reddick), but make no mistake about it, Jones is the single most dominant defensive force participating in this year’s Super Bowl, however, he typically flies under the radar due to the consistent mediocrity of the rest of the Chiefs’ defense.

In the regular season, Jones finished just half-a-sack behind Reddick with 15.5 on the year. However, he’s also an absolute force against the run, as he also ranked Top 10 in the league in tackles-for-loss with 17, which paced Reddick by a distant margin (11).

The key to beating this Philly team is slowing down their run game, and in order to do that, Chris Jones is going to have to bunker down and put on a show on behalf of Kansas City’s defense. Toss in a couple of sacks, or a forced fumble, maybe even a scoop-and-score, It’s certainly reasonable to believe that Jones could take home MVP honors in the case of a Chiefs’ victory.

Darius Slay (CB) +6000

Simply due to the nature of the game, it’s very rare for a corner or safety to stand out as the most valuable player in any given contest, which is highlighted by the fact that only three defensive backs in NFL history have ever won Super Bowl MVP. 

It’s happened twice since 1995, though. So, there’s no reason to think that it’s totally out of the question. Larry Brown won it for the Cowboys back in SB XXX, and Dexter Jackson won for the Buccaneers in SB XXXVII.

The Chiefs and Eagles are pretty evenly matched on the offensive side of the script, and the betting majority seems to think that both squads are going to move the ball up-and-down the field with little resistance throughout this one. However, in order for a defensive player to win SB MVP, it all comes down to the timeliness of the big play. 

Mahomes has posted a perfect 4-to-0 touchdown to interception ratio in the Chiefs’ two playoff matchups thus far. In the regular season, though, he was a little bit more careless with the football, especially towards the beginning of the year when his receivers couldn’t get open. And now, with Mecole Hardman slated to miss Sunday’s contest, and Kadarius Toney also battling a hamstring injury, we might be looking at a similar situation in Super Bowl 57. 

Barring any significant setbacks due to his ankle injury, I fully expect Mahomes to put on a stellar performance in Sunday’s affair, because that’s what great players do. However, it would be wise to acknowledge the wide range of confounding factors heading into this one.

At the very least, Mahomes will be slightly affected by his lingering high ankle sprain, which already puts Kansas City behind the 8-ball in a matchup against the best pass rush in the league. Ultimately, though, the Eagles’ defense should be able to put enough pressure on Mahomes to force a handful of errant throws this Sunday.

So, if Slay winds up on the receiving end of a game-changing interception, or two, en route to an Eagles’ win in SB 57, it would almost be poetic if the voters decided to honor a guy that’s arguably the most valuable player on this Philly defensive unit, yet hardly receives any credit for their success.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson