Last Updated Feb 12, 2023, 7:05 PM
Super Bowl 57 Over Under Total Picks, Predictions, Odds
The 2022-23 NFL season has one matchup remaining with Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles set for Sunday Feb. 12, 2023.
Oddsmakers are expecting a tight matchup in the NFL final and they’re also expecting both teams to put up some points, with the ‘over-under’ listed in the neighborhood of 50.5 points.
Super Bowl 57 Best Bets
In this year’s NFL Playoffs, total bettors watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in Wild Card Weekend but the ‘under’ has rallied for six consecutive results. Through 12 games of the NFL postseason, the ‘under’ owns a 7-5 record.
For this year’s Super Bowl 57 Over-Under Total Picks, Predictions and Odds piece, we’ll focus on trends for both the ‘over’ and ‘under’ for each team and provide historical angles too.
Also, our VegasInsider NFL Experts will be offering up their top selections for each outcome.
Super Bowl 57 Over-Under Odds
Oddsmakers opened Super Bowl 57 with an over-under of 49.5 points and the number jumped quickly into the 50s.
Follow Patrick Everson’s Super Bowl 57 Odds Report to see where the money is going on the Chiefs, Eagles and total.
Super Bowl 57 Over-Under Trends
Our Super Bowl 57 Betting Angles cover many of the below Over-Under Trends plus much more “Betcha Didn’t Know” trends.
-- The Kansas City Chiefs averaged 32.8 points per game away from home this season, ranked first. The ‘over’ has gone 6-3 in those games.
-- KC surrendered 28.5 PPG in four away games versus teams that made the playoffs.
-- The Philadelphia Eagles were ranked second on the road in scoring, averaging 29.4 PPG. They saw total results at 4-4 in the eight games.
-- Against playoff teams on the road this season, the Eagles scored 34 and 25 points.
-- Going back to 1992, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between the pair.
-- More recently, Kansas City outlasted Philadelphia 42-30 on Oct. 3, 2021 and the combined 72 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 54.
Historical & Miscellaneous Trends
-- The ‘over/under’ has gone 27-28 in the first 55 Super Bowl matchups. No total was posted on Super Bowl I between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last four Super Bowls.
-- Kansas City scored 31 points in its last Super Bowl victory (54) while Philadelphia put up 41 points in Super Bowl 52.
-- In Super Bowl losses as a franchise, the Chiefs averaged 9.5 PPG in two setbacks while the Eagles posted 15.5 PPG in their two losses.
-- Offensively the Eagles (18.1) and Chiefs (15.5) averaged a combined 33 PPG in the first-half of their games this season, ranked 1st and second in the league. Total bettors should note that Philadelphia and Kansas City posted 14-4-1 and 10-8-1 ‘over’ records in the first-half this season.
-- The Chiefs scored at least 24 points on 15 occasions this season, while the Eagles posted 24 or more 14 times. Kansas City only hit the Over eight times when reaching the 24-point mark, but Philadelphia compiled a 9-5 Over ledger in those games.
-- In their last eight games versus AFC West opponents in the 2017 and 2021 regular season campaigns, the Eagles have seen an average score of 51.3 PPG. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in those meetings.
Super Bowl 57 Over-Under Stats
Kansas City Chiefs
Overall O/U: 8-11
Advanced O/U Stats
1st Half: 10-8-1
2nd Half: 7-9-2
Overall O/U: 10-9
Advanced O/U Stats
1st Half: 14-4-1
2nd Half: 6-12-1
Super Bowl 57 Over-Under Picks
With help from our VegasInsider NFL Expert Handicappers, we're providing betting analysis on why you should bet the Over or the Under in Super Bowl 57.
Super Bowl 57 Over Best Bet
If there were any two teams that justify a 50-point over/under or higher, then these are the clubs. The Kansas City offense has been better on the road this season and the defense has holes, which provides even more value to the ‘over’ in this spot.
The Eagles will be facing a defensive unit that we believe will be suspect on all levels. To be more specific, the Chiefs gave up 31 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 29 to the Las Vegas Raiders and while they held the Bills to 24 points at home, Buffalo piled up 450 yards and only punted twice.
In divisional games, the Chargers managed to score 24 and 27 points in two outings and the unit made quarterback Russell Wilson look good as the often lifeless Denver Broncos offense put up 24 and 27 losses to KC.
We believe it’s going to be incumbent on QB Patrick Mahomes to try to keep up and trade scores. The Eagles should get their points here as they will afford enough protection to the elusive Jalen Hurts who should expose the Chiefs back end.
This game should see anywhere from 20-22 possessions and we believe 10-11 scores will come out of it. Knowing the Kansas City red zone defense is the third worst in the league at 65%, the Eagles will likely be putting up more sixes instead of threes.
Winner will be in the 30s and the loser shouldn’t be far behind. Over is the play for Super Bowl 57.
Super Bowl 57 Under Best Bet
Neither quarterback is 100% healthy with Patrick Mahomes high ankle sprain which should be better but will continue to limit his mobility and Jalen Hurts shoulder injury which has really prevented him from being accurate throwing downfield.
We believe both defenses match up very well versus the opposing offenses strengths. The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in overall pass defense and they had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season. The pressure will be a problem for Mahomes who won't have his usual mobility due to his ankle injury.
The Philadelphia defense has been stout all season ranking 2nd in total defense while allowing just 20 PPG. On the other side, the Eagles run the ball almost 51% of the time (4th most in the NFL) and KC's strength on defense is stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 8th in the NFL allowing just 107 YPG rushing and their defense as a whole has improved dramatically over the 2nd half of the season.
On October 31st the Chiefs overall defense ranked 26th allowing 370 YPG. They now rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 328 yards per game and have allowed an average of just 304 total yards per game and only 4.8 yards per play since November 1st.
In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs held a potent Cincinnati offense to 309 total yards on 4.8 yards per play. So while Philly's defense has been a strength all year, KC's has been one of the best in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. KC has played 19 games this season with just 6 of those topping 51 total points (in regulation).
Philadelphia has also played 19 games this season and only 5 of those games have topped 51 total points. Thus, of the 38 combined games these 2 have played, only 11 have topped 51 total points.
An interesting underlying situation in this Super Bowl is the officiating. Carl Cheffers' team will be officiating this game and they have called more penalties than any other crew in the NFL each of the past two seasons. Cheffers has been the head referee for 12 playoff games since 2010 and 11 of those 12 games have stayed under the total by an average of 13 PPG.
Recently, Cheffers officiated the Cincinnati vs Buffalo Divisional Playoff matchup a few weeks ago which stayed Under the total by 11 points.
Historically, there have been 55 Super Bowls and 13 of those have had totals close in the 50s. Nine of those 13 games have stayed under the total. More recently, since 2000, there have been eight Super Bowls with the total set at 50 points or higher and 7 of those games have stayed under.
The last four Super Bowls have watched the under connect and we’re projecting Super Bowl 57 will do the same.
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