Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Colorado Avalanche and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet at Amalie Arena Sunday night for Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final, a best-of-seven series. The Avalanche lead the series 3-2. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ABC/ESPN+.

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Updated on 02/26/2024
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Score Prediction

Lightning 3, Avalanche 2

Best Bet

Lightning -108
Under 6 (-115)

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The Avalanche won Game 4 in Tampa in overtime, pushing the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning to the brink of elimination. However, Colorado frittered away its first of three chances to win this series, and now it has to hit the road for Amalie Arena trying to hoist the Cup.

The Lightning showed its championship mettle with a 3-2 victory in the Mile High City. The public was betting the Avalanche at a 3-to-1 clip, and the house never loses. If you see a betting disparity such as that, you need to run, not walk, the other way. Be a contrarian, and don't side with Joey Public.

Tampa Bay faced elimination for the first time since Game 6 of the first round against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Lightning won both elimination games against the Maple Leafs, once as an underdog in Game 7 of that series, and now they're a perfect 3-for-3, and 2-0 as an underdog, in elimination games in these playoffs following the upset win in Game 5. The UNDER is 2-0 in the past two elimination games for the Lightning, too, while also cashing in each of the past two in this series.

We touched on this fact in our Twitter space show, and you should tune in at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday before puck drop to help win some money. But in the final game of the Stanley Cup Final in the past seven seasons, the UNDER has cashed at a 6-1 clip, with the only OVER result coming in 2018 between the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights. Last season Tampa won 1-0 against Montreal in Game 5 to hoist the Cup, and in 2020 in 'The Bubble', the Lightning topped the Dallas Stars 2-0 in another low-scoring game to win it all. In fact, the team winning the Stanley Cup has closed out that series with a shutout in four of the past seven years, too.

For Game 6, this has the look of the St. Louis series for the Avalanche. Colorado went up 3-1 before losing on home ice by one goal in Game 5. It hit the road for Game 6 in St. Louis and the Avalanche nipped the Blues 3-2 in the elimination game in Round 2. Can the road team win for a third consecutive time in this series, or will the Lightning force a decisive Game 7?

Updated on 02/26/2024
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Avalanche -114
Lightning -108
Avalanche +1.5 (-278)
Lightning -1.5 (+220)
Over 6 (-105)
Under 6 (-115)

More Odds Futures Odds


  • Date: Sunday, June 26, 2022
  • Matchup: Central vs. Atlantic
  • Venue: Amalie Arena
  • Location: Tampa, Fla.
  • TV-Time: ABC/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET


Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 71-22-8
  • ATS: 50-51
  • O/U: 53-43-5

The Avalanche have been one of the best road teams in these playoffs, winning eight of nine games on the road. Of course, that lone loss was in Game 3, and it needed overtime to win in Game 4.

In Stanley Cup clinching games, Alex Tanguay notched the game-winning goal in 2001, and Uwe Krupp posted the winner in Miami in Game 4 in triple-overtime to complete a sweep of the Florida Panthers. It's not always the star player who makes history, so remember that in your anytime scorer prop bets.

The UNDER is 6-0-1 in the past seven appearances for the Avalanche on a Sunday, while going 5-1-2 in the past eight appearances in the Stanley Cup Finals. The UNDER is also 6-2 in the past eight games playing on a day of rest.


Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 66-29-9
  • ATS: 51-53
  • O/U: 53-49-2

Ross Colton scored the game-winning goal to clinch the Stanley Cup in 2021. Brayden Point scored the GWG in 2020 to help the Lightning win it all, and Ruslan Fedotenko notched the winner in 2004 to clinch Tampa's first Cup win. While Tampa Bay cannot win the Cup in Game 6, it can force a decisive Game 7. Who will be the hero for the two-time defending champs?

The Lightning have been victorious on home ice in 41 of the past 57 games, and they don't lose back-to-back home games very often. The Lightning lost to Boston by a 2-1 score in overtime on April 8, and 6-2 against Toronto on April 4. Prior to that, you have to go way back to Oct. 19-23, a 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers in the fourth game of the season, and yes, a 4-3 shootout loss to the Avalanche, as Darcy Kuemper bested Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The UNDER has connected in six of the past seven games at home for the Lightning, while going 5-2 in the past seven appearances on a Sunday. The UNDER is also 10-1 in the past 11 games when playing on a day of rest.

Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Lightning look to force a Game 7. (Getty Images)


The television executives were certainly thrilled with the Lightning's 3-2 win against the Avalanche in Game 5, staving off elimination for now. Jan Ruuta was the unlikely ice breaker, scoring at 15:23 of the first period to make it 1-0. Valeri Nichushkin stayed hot early in the second, leveling the game 1-1, but Nikita Kucherov struck on the power play to re-establish the one-goal lead for the Lightning. Cale Makar was credited with a goal on a shot which deflected off a skate, a bad break for the Lightning. That tied the game 2-2 before Ondrej Palat struck for the winner with just 6:22 left in regulation. Palat was a +200 anytime scorer, by the way.

The Lightning are on home ice, where they win frequently. They have one of the best goaltenders on the planet, as Vasilevskiy is capable of stealing a game. In Game 4, there were spurts where the Avalanche looked like the quicker team, the more fit team, but the Lightning returned the favor in Game 5. Tampa Bay was eating pucks, sacrificing bodies and showing its championship mettle. Do they want it more? We'll see if they can bring the intensity again in Game 6. But if you have doubted the Lightning in the past, such as Game 6 and 7 in the Toronto series, when they went down 0-2 to the New York Rangers, and in Game 5 against the Avalanche, they continue to prove time and again that they won't go quietly into the night.


  • Avalanche are 8-1 in the past nine road games.
  • Lightning are 13-5 in the past 18 games overall.
  • Lightning are 41-16 in the past 57 home games.
  • Lightning are 10-4 in the past 14 Stanley Cup Final games.
  • OVER is 6-2 in the past eight road games for the Avalanche.
  • UNDER is 13-4 in the past 17 games overall for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven home games for the Lightning.
  • UNDER is 10-1 in the past 11 games on a day of rest for the Lightning.
  • Favorite is 18-7 in the past 25 meetings.
  • OVER is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Tampa.
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