The Cities Where Heartbreak Is Most Likely

Kathy Morris Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Most people experience heartbreak in their lives. However, some people seem unluckier in love than others. What if where they call home impacts their chance of a broken heart?

To explore that idea, we analyzed U.S. Census data to identify cities where relationship outcomes suggest higher odds of heartbreak.

We measured “heartbreak risk” using two key indicators: divorce rates, which signal relationship instability, and marriage rates, which suggest long-term relationship stability. Divorce was weighted more heavily, since it represents a clear and direct outcome of a relationship ending.

Marriage was included as a counterbalance, but given less weight, since being married doesn’t necessarily mean a relationship is thriving—or that divorce won’t happen later.

By combining those two signals, we created a ranking of cities with the highest “odds of heartbreak.”

We’re not saying love is doomed in these places. But if breakups feel more common there, the numbers suggest that’s not your imagination.

Key Findings

• Florida dominates the heartbreak rankings, claiming 6 of the top 10 cities nationwide.
• The Villages, FL ranks #1 by a wide margin with a 70% implied heartbreak probability, driven by a very low marriage share and high divorce share.
• Santa Fe, NM stands out with the highest divorce share in the top 10 (17.74%).
• Many top cities also show high mobility, suggesting constant life changes that may make relationships harder to maintain.

The 10 U.S. Cities With the Highest Odds of Heartbreak

These odds are for entertainment purposes only but similar to ones you see on leading prediction market apps. You can use this Kalshi Referral Code to check them out.

1. The Villages, Florida — 70.0% Chance of Heartbreak

Topping the list, The Villages is statistically the most heartbreak-prone place in our dataset. Only 4.24% of residents are married. This means a big chunk of the population is available to mingle and with mingling comes heartbreak. It’s worth noting the average age in The Villages is 73.6, showing that love (and heartbreak) can happen at any age.

2. Largo, Florida — 55.7% Chance of Heartbreak

In 2nd place is unlucky in love Largo, Florida. Marriage is pretty popular in Largo (a hefty 30.55%). However, so is getting divorced. Largo has a 17.56% divorce rate, the 2nd highest of all cities. 

3. Cape Coral, Florida — 52.4% Chance of Heartbreak

Cape Coral demonstrates the classic “fast-growth heartbreak” profile: high mobility, a solid marriage share, and a meaningful proportion of divorces. Couples here may form quickly, but the city’s constant change keeps relationships on their toes.

4. North Port, Florida — 52.3% Chance of Heartbreak

North Port is basically Cape Coral’s slightly calmer sibling. North Port ranks in 4th because its divorce share (12.40%) is slightly lower. However, the city overall has enough relationship churn to make heartbreak a high likelihood. 

5. Santa Fe, New Mexico — 50.7% Chance of Heartbreak

Santa Fe shows that heartbreak isn’t only a Florida phenomenon. What makes Santa Fe a real heartbreaker? The city has the highest divorce share of all 500 cities at 17.74%. This shows that even with beautiful adobe architecture, numerous art galleries, and great food, heartbreak can happen.

6. Palm Coast, Florida — 50.0% Chance of Heartbreak

In 6th place is beautiful Palm Coast, Florida where heartbreak is a coin flip. While marriage is high in Palm Coast, so too is divorce rate. This means people are still committing, just not always permanently. People in Palm Coast here clearly believe in love… but also clearly believe in leaving.

7. Medford, Oregon — 48.9% Chance of Heartbreak

In 7th place is Medford, the heartbreak capital of Oregon. Its odds stem from its combination of moderate divorce and marriage rates. Medford is a sneaky heartbreak city because it’s not some chaotic party hub. It’s more like a “settle down and start building a life” place, except the numbers suggest that life doesn’t always stay built.

8. Henderson, Nevada — 48.3% Chance of Heartbreak

Henderson is basically heartbreak with good credit. It’s a large, fast-growing city where relationships form constantly, but people are also more likely to relocate, restart, or rebrand their lives. If the dating scene seems tumultuous in Henderson, it’s not your imagination.

9. Hialeah, Florida — 47.6% Chance of Heartbreak

Hialeah ranks high because it’s a city where relationships are very common, but breakups are too. When a city has both high marriage and high divorce, it means people are entering serious relationships, but those relationships aren’t always lasting.

10. Spokane Valley, Washington — 47.2% Chance of Heartbreak

Rounding out the top ten, is Spokane Valley, Washington. Spokane Valley doesn’t dominate in any one metric, but it’s consistently high across the board. Spokane Valley has a LOT of relationships happening. It’s not some “nobody commits here” city. It's more like “everyone commits here… and a decent chunk regret it later.”

What This Tells Us About Love and Heartbreak

Heartbreak isn’t evenly distributed. Some people, and yes some cities, see it more often than others. However, this is a population-level index, not a prediction of individual relationship outcomes. You can be madly (and stable) in love in The Villages, Largo, and all the cities in the top 10- even if it feels like the odds are stacked against you.

Methodology

To identify the U.S. cities with the highest “odds of heartbreak,” we analyzed U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year estimates (2019–2023).

We included incorporated cities and Census Designated Places (CDPs) with at least 65,000 residents, using the ACS marital-status universe of adults age 15+, examining a total of 500 cities.

For each location, we calculated: 

• Divorce Share = Divorced / Total (15+)
• Marriage Share = Married / Total (15+)

From there, each city was indexed according to the following formula :

Heartbreak Index = ( Divorce Share × 100) − ( Marriage Share × 50)

The Heartbreak Index is designed to capture relationship instability at the city level by balancing two opposing signals: divorce prevalence (instability) and marriage prevalence (stability).

Divorce is treated as the strongest measurable indicator of relationship dissolution in the ACS, so it receives the highest weight. Marriage, meanwhile, is treated as a stabilizing force, but it is weighted less heavily because marriage alone does not guarantee long-term relationship success (and many married individuals may later divorce).

Cities were ranked from highest to lowest index score. The index score was turned into an implied probability of heartbreak.

You can see the full data here.

Kathy Morris

Kathy is Digital PR Specialist at VegasInsider where she creates fun, data based content. Her research has been featured by the WSJ, FastCompany, Cornell, the LATimes, and more. She lives in St. Louis, MO, home of the worst pizza and the best baseball team. She spends her free time building data visualizations, reading, and hoping this year the Cards make it far enough she gets to wear her Cardinals’ sweatshirt More from Kathy Morris