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College Basketball

Dinero Tracker – Feb. 21

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
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Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 0-0 | NCAA BB: 14-6

Due to the NBA being out for the early part of this week and a light selection of picks to work with, the Dinero Tracker has been on hiatus, but now returns daily for the foreseeable future. Tuesday’s action featured a big night in the college ranks, although Wyoming and Mizzou going down as home favorites likely hurt the bottom line if you played them in any money-line parlays or took a shot at a teaser. There was a bad beat on a college total, but that was quickly offset by a great break on our guaranteed play. Here's Tuesday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

WEDNESDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Boise State -7
This season has been a complete nightmare for the Colorado State, so don't expect a very productive ending to its season. Coming off a blowout loss at Fresno, the Rams won't be able to sustain 40 minutes of good basketball in order to hang around with the visiting Broncos, who have designs on at least a second place finish in the Mountain West since Nevada is unlikely to be caught. Lay the points and ride Boise State.




TUESDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Western Michigan/Central Michigan OVER 147.5
The Broncos and Chippewas have each had up and down seasons and will be left to try and play their way into the NCAA's in the MAC Tournament. Both teams will be looking for a win for seating purposes, but aren't likely to do much defensively that they can use in a few weeks. Western Michigan won the first meeting 88-80 and it wouldn't be surprising to see both teams make another run at 80. Ride the over, guaranteed.

Result: It's always better to be lucky than good, even though you need to be lucky and great for prolonged success in this game. Positive karma for taking my family to Disney over this break paid off instantly when these teams went to overtime even at 69. The Broncos had a 2-point edge and were going to the line to close it out after forcing what appeared to be a bet-crushing turnover, but a missed free-throw left the door open and Kevin McKay drained to clutch free-throws to even it up with 6.3 left. After dodging a bullet to close out regulation, both teams quickly secured our total win in the OT, where Western Michigan ultimately won 83-81 on the heels of star guard Thomas Wilder's 22 points, 10 boards and nine assists.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Ohio State/Rutgers UNDER 129.5
The Scarlet Knights will be without guard Geo Baker, undoubtedly their top 3-point shooter and a cerebral player who helps everything go. On the road against the Big Ten's top defensive team, look for Rutgers to miss him in this matchup, likely leading to a low-scoring game than expected. Ride the under.

Result: I deliberated just laying the 14.5 with the Buckeyes, which was the move in retrospect since they crushed Rutgers 79-52, but the total play looked pretty safe as we came down the stretch in this blowout. The score was just 32-27 at the break, and after Ohio State scored 18 of the second half's first 20 points, this one looked like it was baking nicely in the oven. With 3:06 left, Ohio State led 71-44, so given the likelihood it would milk the clock, only a really awful run of luck would see this game get into the 130s. It was 73-47 after Andre Wesson finished an OSU layup with 1:38 left, but then disaster struck. The game's final four possessions where teams attempted shots all ended in makes, the latter three of which were 3-pointers. Walk-ons Joey Lane and Matt Lehmann connected as they rightfully took their looks -- not mad at kids who don't get to play often basking in the spotlight -- putting the total in danger for Scarlet Knights guard Jake Dadika to bust with his own 3-pointer with 8 seconds left, making it 79-52. The under would have come in had he missed, so this one just wasn't meant to be.



MONUMENTAL UPSET

The pick: The Citadel +18
The Bucs shot 2-for-23 from 3-point range when these teams played at the Citadel, and a slumping Desonta Bradford will be a game-time decision due to an ankle issue. The Bulldogs are small enough that they take 7-footer Peter Jurkin out of the equation for ETSU, so at the very least, the backdoor cover option figures to be present for the duration here. Take the points with the Citadel.

Result: I saw some Twitter users bragging about taking the money line on Twitter at +1750 and call shenanigans, so by all means, if you have proof, send it my way. Duggar Baucom's Bulldogs improved to 10-18, complicating matters for SoCon-leading East Tennessee State with an 84-82 upset that snapped their host's 11-game home winning streak. Taking the points was always the right move, as ETSU again shot poorly from beyond the arc (8-for-27) and the free-throw line (8-for-15). The Citadel put itself in position to pull off the improbable on Zane Najdawi's huge 3-pointer with 35 seconds left.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Arkansas/Kentucky OVER 153
The Wildcats face a tremendous challenge in Fayetteville given what just went down against Texas A&M. The Hogs have won four straight by double-digits, really taking care of business against the Aggies in a game I expected them to lose outright. Arkansas shot 10-for-23 from 3-point range and will push tempo here. It's going to be on Kentucky to hang around or get blown out, so they'll be forced to thrive at a faster pace. Ride the over.

Result: I really wish I had stuck with my natural inclination to ride the 'Cats since both of these teams are equally unpredictable and I felt a brisk pace for 40 minutes would ultimately spark a Kentucky team whose biggest issue has been a lack of focus at both ends. After falling behind 11-2, Kentucky found its footing, evening the game at 43 before taking over in the second half. We looked great on the total following that early lull for most of the night, but action slowed down considerably after the Hogs ran out of gas and hung their heads over the final minutes as the 'Cats went on a 22-4 run. We finally got our chicken dinner on a P.J. Washington dunk with 1:09 left. The teams traded last-minute buckets as Kentucky won 87-72, riding depth as freshmen Washington, Jarred Vanderbilt and Quade Green combined for 36 points and 25 boards off the bench, giving John Calipari some food for thought as to what his next starting lineup will be since Hamidou Diallo, Wenyen Gabriel and Nick Richards all struggled.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: N.C. State/Boston College OVER 157.5
Markell Johnson and Braxton Beverly have really taken off down the stretch, which has made the Wolfpack a legitimate ACC team a year earlier than most expected they would be under Kevin Keatts. BC's talent should make this game tight down the stretch, which is why even with the number down to 5, it's hard to lay points despite the fact I like an NC State victory here. I like the total play better, riding the over since both teams should score it well.

Result: Beverly went 5-for-5 from 3-point range in the first half as N.C. State nailed nine straight from beyond the arc at oene point, finishing the first half 17-for-19. I talked myself out of riding with the Wolfpack, which would've earned at least a split since the Eagles just weren't the same after losing Jerome Robinson to an elbow injury. He returned, but BC never got close enough to prolong the action down the stretch, which we needed to eclipse such a large total.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: West Virginia PK, WVU/Baylor UNDER 141
The first meeting in Morgantown was extremely low-scoring, resulting in a 57-54 West Virginia win. Both teams feature elite shot blockers in Sagaba Konate and Jo-Lual Acuil, not to mention point guards likely to have the ball in their hands until the final seconds of the shot clock often down the stretch. Baylor just won of these nail-biters against Texas Tech, while the visitors lost at Kansas and will be out to pull off a win here. Ride West Virginia and the under for the in-game parlay.  

Result: The Mountaineers led 40-18 at the break, so this one was in the bag quickly. Between this blowout and another lopsided winner on Butler and its 'over' against Creighton, I was able to focus in Buffalo squandering a lead at Miami (Ohio) to blow that in-game parlay, losing outright as a 6-point favorite.


Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at mejia@vegasinsider.com

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