Saint Mary’s vs. Memphis Predictions, Odds

  • November 25, 2020
  • by Thom Cunningham

The WCC’s Saint Mary's Gaels face the American's Memphis Tigers this Wednesday in a 2 p.m. ET tip at Sanford Pentagon for a neutral court game in South Dakota.


Saint Mary's-Memphis Betting Odds

  • Spread: MEM -8
  • Money-Line: Memphis -385 Saint Mary's +295
  • Total: 138.5
  • Implied Probability: Memphis 79.4%

Odds Subject to Change

It's difficult not to like Memphis this season, given low odds to win the American with low expectations after the James Wiseman departure. They are a dark horse with great odds to win the American, but the odds aren't so kind in the season-opener against Saint Mary's.

The Tigers are very athletic, and got a shot in the arm with Virginia Tech transfer Landers Nolley II. Nolley II will provide experience for a talented roster that includes D.J. Jeffries, who could win conference player of the year. Memphis might need time for five-star center Moussa Cisse to get his feet wet, but this team is poised to get better as the season progresses.

Matthias Tass might be the Gael that provides problems for Cisse. He will be the focus point of Randy Bennett's offense this season, making the All-Conference preseason team. This is a great measuring stick game for a team that should be in a tight bubble race to reach March Madness, especially with conference foe BYU.

Betting Analysis – Saint Mary's Gaels

2019-2020 Results - Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 24-7
  • ATS: 14-16
  • SU - Home: 15-4
  • SU - Away: 9-3
  • O/U: 20-10

Betting Analysis – Memphis Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 21-10
  • ATS: 19-12
  • SU - Home: 16-4
  • SU - Away: 5-6
  • O/U: 13-18

Inside the Stats – Saint Mary's Gaels

2019-20 stats

  • PS/G: 75.3 (68th)
  • PA/G: 66.9 (111th)
  • Off Rtg: 112.4 (8th)
  • Def Rtg: 100 (185th)
  • SRS: 12.27 (47th)
  • SOS: 5.24 (81st)

As usual, the Saint Mary's offense is what stood out a year ago. It's a bit telling where most feel this team is entering the 2020-21 season, which is almost an after thought. BYU is favored to finish ahead of the Gaels within the WCC, along with the obvious Gonzaga Bulldogs. Also, Saint Mary's only had one player selected to the WCC preseason All-Conference team.

The Gaels did struggle covering the spread last year, but with 14 covers its basically a 50/50 split. Saint Mary's plays a decently difficult schedule as well, so consider this a bubble game for each team for when the committees decide who will make March Madness come 2021.

Inside the Stats – Memphis Tigers

2019-20 stats

  • PS/G: 72 (114th)
  • PA/G: 64.9 (63rd)
  • Off Rtg: 97.7 (268th)
  • Def Rtg: 88.1 (3rd)
  • SRS: 12.16 (49th)
  • SOS: 5.07 (84th)

Memphis' defense was one of the most efficient in the country last season, and it should stay that way again. The offense is a bit of a concern when looking at last year's numbers, but the transfer of Nolley II should help crutch that Tigers' weakness.

The issue with Memphis goes to their road record from a year ago, finishing one game under .500. This game will be played on a neutral court, in which Saint Mary's has the geographical advantage. It's also the first game of the season, meaning teams have an entire offseason to prepare (barring any COVID-related switch). There are reasons to worry about Memphis here, playing on the road against a good team with ample time to prepare.

Key Players to Watch

2019-20 stats

  • MEM - D.J. Jeffries (10.8 ppg)
  • MEM - Lester Quinones (10.7 ppg)
  • STM - Matthias Tass (6.6 ppg - INJ)

Saint Mary's-Memphis Predictions

Other than Memphis struggling on the road, and the offseason preparation Saint Mary's has had, it's difficult to find a reason to side with the Gaels. This is a team that lost its top three scorers from a year ago, dependent on a big man who is coming off an injury. The Gaels usually reload well, but it's tough to ignore that they're now missing players that averaged 21.9, 16.5 and 9.1 points per game.

Meanwhile, Memphis' top two losses are easily fillable with the talent they possess. Nolley II, Jeffries and Cisse have already been mentioned, without even getting to Boogie Ellis and Lester Quinones. This team is deceivingly stacked and should beat Saint Mary's, despite the road struggles from Penny Hardaway's clubs.

  • Score Prediction: Memphis 62 Saint Mary's 57
  • Best Bet: STM 2H +335

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