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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:47 PM

Providence vs. Villanova Predictions, Odds



  • January 23, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Providence Friars look to win their second straight road game as the underdog, going up against the No. 3 ranked Villanova Wildcats. Tip is set for 2:30 p.m. and will air on FOX from the Finneran Pavilion in Villanova, Pennsylvania.

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WHERE TO BET PROVIDENCE-VILLANOVA

Providence-Villanova Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Villanova -10
  • Money-Line: Villanova -700 Providence +500
  • Total: 139.5

Odds Subject to Change

Villanova is the obvious home favorite, given a -10-point spread and entering with a 6-4 ATS record this season. Providence is split on the ATS this season, going 7-7 after an upset victory in Omaha against Creighton.

The point total is set at 139.5, which Providence has gone OVER on in nine of 14 games this season. Villanova is 6-4 on the O/U this season.

Betting Analysis – Providence Friars

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-6
  • ATS: 7-7
  • SU - Home: 5-2
  • SU - Away: 3-4
  • O/U: 9-5

Can Providence pull off another road upset? Yes, but it's very unlikely. The Friars, coached by the underrated Ed Cooley, are one of the most consistently prepared teams in all of college basketball. Any time Providence takes the court, the opponent must be ready for a dog fight. The Frairs' offense comes and goes, but the effort is almost always perfection which stems from Cooley's coaching.

Quality wins for Providence this year includes Texas Christian, Seton Hall and Creighton. All three wins were on the road, so this is a team unfazed by travel. Once again, that stems from Cooley's coaching. In laymen's terms, never underestimate Cooley's Friars.

Their lack of ability to close games out is their biggest weakness, which adds up when breaking this team down. The Friars are reliant on two players, David Duke and Nate Watson, who each average over 19 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Then there is a massive drop off in consistent production.

Outside of Jared Bynum who averages 4.5 assists per game, Providence (at times) looks completely lost on offense. The heavy leaning of Duke and Watson has resulted in an unsure offense when one or both isn't present on the court. This seems to be why Providence has an issue closing games out, because of an overall unsure offense, although formidable.

Also, despite giving up 71.7 points per game (218th nationally) they have three players who average over a steal per game. This is where A.J. Reeves comes in to play, who has only seen two steals over his last six games. He will need at least three to beat Villanova on the road.

Betting Analysis – Villanova Wildcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-1
  • ATS: 6-4
  • SU - Home: 3-1
  • SU - Away: 6-0
  • O/U: 6-4

Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are the two Wildcats that make this team one of the most dangerous in the country. Any questions about Villanova's endurance after a month-long hiatus can be thrown in to the bin after a good win against Seton Hall.

Gillespie and Robinson-Earl go back-and-forth leading the team in points per game, while Robinson-Earl averages about seven boards per game. Gillespie, the current team leader in points per game, averages about four assists per game too. These two are the catalysts of this team, and will have to work together to carry Villanova to a potential third title since 2016.

Villanova has the eighth-most efficient offense in the nation, with a 118.8 efficiency rating. The defense is a bit rubbish, though. Despite limiting teams to 67.8 points per game, the Villanova defensive efficiency is 101 which ranks 226th nationally.

Duke and Watson can keep Providence in the game with solid nights, but Villanova should win a sprint to the finish line with the high-powered offense.

Let's not forget that Justin Moore and Caleb Daniels also average a double-digit point total, while both Jermaine Samuels and Cole Swider contribute too.

This team has the 48th-best free throw percentage (75%), the 45th-best three-point percentage (37%), the 48th-best two-point percentage (55%) and the 53rd-best field goal percentage (59.6%). Going up against Providence's shaky defense should see Villanova's potent offense carry this team at home.


Inside the Stats – Providence Friars

  • PS/G: 74.1 (133rd)
  • PA/G: 71.7 (218th)
  • Off Rtg: 107 (93rd)
  • Def Rtg: 103.5 (273rd)

Inside the Stats – Villanova Wildcats

  • PS/G: 79.7 (50th)
  • PA/G: 67.8 (118th)
  • Off Rtg: 118.8 (8th)
  • Def Rtg: 101 (228th)

Key Players to Watch

  • PROV - David Duke (19.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.8 APG)
  • PROV - Nate Watson (19.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
  • NOVA - Collin Gillespie (16 PPG)
  • NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG)

Providence-Villanova Predictions

Seeing how both defenses struggle more times than not, paired with Villanova's high-powered offense, it seems fair to go OVER here. The O/U trends lean slightly towards the OVER between both schools, as Villanova should touch 80, while Providence will be about 10 points or lower behind.

Villanova covering -10 is fair to assume as well, playing at home with a slightly better ATS record. We've discussed the close out issues Providence has, so expect Villanova to pull away at the end if not sooner. Providence has played well on the road lately, so between the two lean OVER.

When looking at Providence's road losses though, they've lost by a double-digit point total to Alabama, Indiana and Marquette. It seems Providence can hang with above-average teams on the road, but Villanova is near the elite level. They should cover, but the OVER seems reasonable as well.

  • Score Prediction: Villanova 89 Providence 75
  • Best Bets: OVER
  • Best Bets: Villanova -10

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