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Jan 28, 2021

Boise State vs. Colorado State Predictions, Odds


  • January 29, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Colorado State Rams look to continue their quietly impressive season with another win over the conference's top team in the Boise State Broncos. This Mountain West game is set for an 11 p.m. (ET) tip time and will air on FS1.

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WHERE TO BET BOISE STATE-COLORADO STATE

Boise State-Colorado State Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Pick em
  • Money-Line: Boise State -110 Colorado State -110
  • Total: 144.5

Odds Subject to Change

Losing to Colorado State just the other day, Boise State finds themselves split with the Rams. Boise State didn't cover against Colorado State last game, but has covered in nine of 14 games this season. Colorado State is 8-5 on the ATS.

The point total is set at 144.5, as the market is split between both schools. Combining the O/U record for both teams this season is 13-14, with the Rams going slightly UNDER at 6-7.

Betting Analysis – Boise State Broncos

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-2
  • ATS: 9-4-1
  • SU - Home: 7-0
  • SU - Away: 6-2
  • O/U: 7-7

The Broncos got a wake up call, sleepwalking through Mountain West competition until running into a very good Colorado State team. Not much is known about the Broncos, but they're a legit March Madness team.

Boise's balance of efficiency is quite impressive, averaging nearly 80 points per game while only allowing 62.2. The efficiency ratings on both sides of the court rank within the country's top 33, as the offense is 33rd (112.2) and the defense ranks 12th (87.8).

Four total players average a double-digit point total, three of which are seniors. Derrick Alston leads the bunch with 17 points per game, while Abu Kigab sees 13.3 points and six rebounds per game.

The Broncos have four players average at least one steal per game, with another player averaging 0.9 per game. This has helped Boise State rank 102nd nationally in steals per game (7.3). Marcus Shaver, who averages 13 points per game, is one of the Broncos' best ball stealers.

He only saw on steal in the loss to Colorado State. He has only seen one or fewer steals in four of his last five games, so expect both Shaver and the Broncos' defense to step up.

Betting Analysis – Colorado State Rams

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-3
  • ATS: 8-5
  • SU - Home: 7-0
  • SU - Away: 5-3
  • O/U: 6-7

Defense is the name of the game for Colorado State, a young but quietly impressive team. The Rams have won 10 of 12 games which includes wins over Boise State, Utah State and San Diego State.

They held a very good Boise State offense to under 60 points a few days ago, and have failed to allow over 70 points in three of their last five games. Give Niko Medved credit, this is a March Madness quality team and should be on everyone's radar now.

David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens each average over 15 points per game, the main catalysts for Colorado State's offense. Also, Kendle Moore average 11.2 points per game while the role-players are beginning to contribute more and play with conviction.

Colorado State did have offensive issues to begin the season, but have now seen their points per game average jump to 75.7 after scoring 74 points or more in six of their last seven games. The offense is beginning to catch up to the defense, which could be quite the scary team to face in February-March.

70 is the magic number for the Rams, undefeated in games when they touch the 70-point threshold. The defense for Colorado State gets the credit, as they should, but offensively this team is just as dangerous. They have the 21st-best free throw percentage in the country (77%), the 22nd-best three-point percentage (39%) and the 48th-best field goal percentage (47.4%).

If you were to say that Colorado State is the best team in the Mountain West then there would be no argument from this side. The Rams play great defense and are underrated on offense. The only issue for Colorado State is age, as the top two scorers are sophomores in an experience conference.


Inside the Stats – Boise State Broncos

  • PS/G: 79.5 (47th)
  • PA/G: 62.2 (22nd)
  • Off Rtg: 112.2 (33rd)
  • Def Rtg: 87.8 (12th)

Inside the Stats – Colorado State Rams

  • PS/G: 82.9 (18th)
  • PA/G: 68.9 (143rd)
  • Off Rtg: 114.2 (18th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.9 (88th)

Key Players to Watch

  • BSU - Derrick Alston (17 PPG)
  • BSU - Abu Kigab (13.3 PPG 6 RPG)
  • CSU - David Roddy (16 PPG, 9.4 RPG)
  • CSU - Isaiah Stevens (15.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 6.5 APG)

Boise State-Colorado State Predictions

As good as Boise State is, it's hard not to take the home Rams in this game. As mentioned earlier, the Rams are undefeated when touching 70 points. The given O/U sees at least one team touching 70 points - so play the odds.

Assume Colorado State will touch 70 at home and take the OVER. It's unlikely Boise is blown out again, and if Colorado State touches 70 then Boise should be close behind. The OVER would likely hit, but taking it with the Rams SU should see one bet hit at minimum.

Feel free to take the UNDER and Boise State instead, but if push comes to shove the Rams at home (and to touch 70) should earn your conviction.

  • Score Prediction: Colorado State 75 Boise State 74
  • Best Bets: OVER
  • Best Bets: Colorado State SU

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