Florida vs. West Virginia Predictions, Odds

  • January 30, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Florida Gators head to Morgantown, West Virginia to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. The SEC vs. Big 12 tip is set for 2 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN.



Florida-West Virginia Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: West Virginia -5
  • Money-Line: West Virginia -190 Florida +170
  • Total: 148.5

Odds Subject to Change

The Mountaineers are home favorites, given a -5-point spread. They are 8-7 on the ATS, while Florida is just 7-6.

The point total is set at 148.5, which the two schools tend to go OVER on. Florida is 8-5 on the O/U this season, while West Virginia is 9-6.

Betting Analysis – Florida Gators

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-4
  • ATS: 7-6
  • SU - Home: 6-1
  • SU - Away: 3-3
  • O/U: 8-5

The Gators have won three straight games, one of which was an impressive display by the bench against Tennessee. Florida, who is already without star Keyontae Johnson, also saw Colin Castleton on the bench against the Vols.

Castleton, who averages 12.8 points per game which ranks second on the team, didn't seem to be needed as Florida destroyed Tennessee by over 20 points. However, the last two games against Georgia and Vanderbilt have been closer than what Florida wants.

The inconsistency is still very much there for Florida, which has seemingly haunted coach Michael Whitein his career there. Still, he's doing a great job without Johnson by showcasing the 64th-best offense in the nation.

Without Johnson, players such as Tre Mann and Castleton have had to step up. This is especially true for players such as Noah Locke and Tyree Appleby, as Scottie Lewis has gone through injury issues himself this season.

Basically, Florida is doing a superb job of playing productive basketball while having to adjust the roster on what seems like a game-by-game basis. The defense has led to the productive offense as well, averaging 7.7 steals per game (75th nationally) and 5.9 blocks per game (fifth nationally).

Betting Analysis – West Virginia Mountaineers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-4
  • ATS: 8-7
  • SU - Home: 8-1
  • SU - Away: 3-3
  • O/U: 9-6

West Virginia has been very impressive since returning to the court. Their most recent win was against Texas Tech at home, in which star Miles McBride took over and hit the game-winner. It was a fun battle between him and McClung, as McBride proved he can win a one-on-one battle between two players carrying their respected teams in any game.

When he and Derek Culver are on their games, West Virginia is one of the best team's nationally. The defense is not as good as advertised (97.8 rating ranks 158th), but not terrible. The strength for this team lies in the paint and on the glass.

The Mountaineers average 39.4 rebounds per game (ranks 47th nationally) and attempt 21.9 free throws per game (ranks 55th nationally). Between those two stats, it shows West Virginia plays well inside. Also, West Virginia attempts the 19th-most two-pointers per game nationally at 42.9. The issue is that they only hit 45.3% of those attempts, which ranks 314th.

Much like Florida, West Virginia has consistency issues - as the Mountaineers inconsistency is making close-range shots. West Virginia only attempts 19.3 three-pointers per game (ranks 267th), but has the 72nd-best three-point percentage (36.6%).

Perhaps taking more three-pointers should be on the Mountaineer agenda, but the conviction in this team is playing from the inside-out. That circles back to the two main players for West Virginia in McBride and Culver. In a nutshell, if one of these two don't have a good game then West Virginia is susceptible.

Inside the Stats – Florida Gators

  • PS/G: 77.8 (64th)
  • PA/G: 70.3 (184th)
  • Off Rtg: 108.5 (70th)
  • Def Rtg: 98 (163rd)

Inside the Stats – West Virginia Mountaineers

  • PS/G: 75.4 (99th)
  • PA/G: 69.3 (155th)
  • Off Rtg: 106.4 (93rd)
  • Def Rtg: 97.8 (158th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UF - Tre Mann (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
  • UF - Colin Castleton (12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
  • WVU - Miles McBride (15.9 PPG, 4.2 APG)
  • WVU - Derek Culver (13.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG)

Florida-West Virginia Predictions

West Virginia should be able to cover the spread at home, as they're a very dangerous team in Morgantown. Keep in mind Florida is beginning to slip after a season-high home win over the Tennessee Vols.

While the point total can go in either direction, if you must choose go with the OVER on the combined 17-11 O/U record. For those long shot bettors, this feels like a game West Virginia can run away with so buying an alternate line for a near or at double-digit win is fine to consider as well.

The safest bet is the -5 spread though, as the point total is a toss up.

  • Score Prediction: West Virginia 77 Florida 71
  • Best Bets: West Virginia -5

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